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Mr Hootington posted:A recession is good for stocks (the real economy) It is a good thing if the Fed drops rates, but the US is also in a weird situation because of OPEC where oil prices are still pretty elevated despite the fact the US is still crawling into a recession.
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Apr 5, 2023 15:44
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Mr Hootington posted:It isn't just the opec+ messing with the oil market. Removing Russia and the usa constantly flooding the market have had roles. It effects local markets to some degree, but in aggregate OPEC+ can control prices as total supply shifts. Also, Russia is pour oil into Asian markets. ---------- The real test is going the next 1-2 Fed meetings because the banking sector is looking weak, and it looks like a recession is about to occur but inflation is far from tamed and energy prices may be actually rising again.
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Apr 5, 2023 18:23
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Hope is one letter away from dope
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Apr 5, 2023 19:36
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Bill gates is one of the largest landowners in the country, he doesn't need an island. Also, his security detail is smart enough to get behind the camera for a photo op.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:26
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Dollar is up and the market is moderately down, there are two camps at this point on the Fed. Supposedly, employment numbers weren’t bad enough to impress the market. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:14 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 14:47
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cool av posted:I don’t see why the people who matter wouldn’t be comfortably invested into RMB by the time anything really goes into effect dollar hegemony wise. No doomsday. You’re the doomsday. Yeah, that and non-US real estate as well as precious metals and commodities. Some people are going to scream at me but gold isn’t doing that bad. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:13 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 14:53
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It is more poor seniors even have less options than young people and they need to work to pay for their health care or they will die.
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Apr 6, 2023 16:22
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Generations aren’t imaginary but the expectation there isn’t material commonality between segments of them is. Not all Boomers are rich, and not all Zoomers are poor (if you count family wealth, which you should).
Ardennes has issued a correction as of 16:50 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 16:44
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:Opposed to the self made rich kids? My point being that they are very rare if they even exist.
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Apr 6, 2023 16:50
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They’re worried about the dollar
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Apr 6, 2023 17:13
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Xaris posted:i don't see what's hard about that? The result on the market was rather neutral though since even through employment is slowing, it doesn't seem like it is enough to force the Fed to stop raising rates. Bullard, specifically threw water on the idea that anything was going wrong. It is likely there will be a recession, but the effect may not be exactly like 2008-9. You may not exactly have a mass rise in unemployment and a complete meltdown but the Fed desperately trying to keep a lid on the situation as the economy stagnates and inflation persists. One thing is that the government is making it clear it is going to bail everyone out no matter how bad it is, but, that is going to implicitly weaken the dollar so it locks the Fed into potentially more rate rises. The country is slowly sinking into quicksand.
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Apr 7, 2023 11:05
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Yeah, I don't see .50 happening, but we may just on going up at .25 for at least 2 more meetings. The market is demanding a big drop which I don't really see happening.
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Apr 7, 2023 14:47
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Granted, you could also say sometimes you need some ecological damage to address climate change, China has some massive dams powering it and without question they did environment damage but would it have been better if 6 coal plants had been built instead?
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Apr 7, 2023 16:00
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Mirthless posted:Yep, same goes for nuclear power - you must accept occasional devastation as a cost of existing, climate policy should always keep this in mind and try to be moving towards the lowest overall environmental cost for growth. We have stuck with coal to our detriment for decades and it has been a complete disaster for the environment, all to avoid the potential Chernobyl that would have ultimately polluted less Yeah, and China seems to be going whole hog on nuclear power as well. If China wants to become a fully developed country there isn’t really a way around it even with the progress they have made. China also has a much of solar and wind power but it isn’t enough and they also have their own issues.
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Apr 7, 2023 16:27
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Yeah, that line in Russia isn’t to a bank in all likelihood, at least not recently.
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Apr 7, 2023 23:06
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:it could be to the conscription office If it was it would be in September 2022.
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Apr 7, 2023 23:08
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Yeah even Chinese oil imports have been increasing along with the developing world, I actually don’t think the Russians and Saudis are sweating it tbh.
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Apr 9, 2023 12:58
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shrike82 posted:Having kids is probably the difference for normies complaining about living on a six figure income It is an interesting country when having kids is either for the very rich or very poor.
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Apr 9, 2023 13:09
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Granted, I would also argue that providing decent universal health care, affordable food, and housing is actually quite doable and you don’t even need a socialist government to do it. It is just incapable with the mindset of the American elite.
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Apr 9, 2023 15:39
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I would say the problem with "one and done" is that energy prices took a significant dip in March and across April they actually have been on a uptick (at the writing of this post Brent is above $86). This is eventually going to make it's way back in economy and probably "make up" for the slower print in March. In all honesty, if oil prices are staying high if not slightly rising, I don't see inflation going anywhere. It also means the Fed is still probably locked in with 2 more increases (and even then it remains to be seen what will happen afterward). The issue is the banking sector is getting weaker and as demand for mortgages evaporates (at above 7%), banks are going to continue to see pressure build as the Fed rates continue to advance on them. The US really hasn't even begun to see things get bad to be honest. Also, I think it is a mistake to think that falling consumer spending/unemployment is going to be the chief factor in figuring out inflation when it is really about OPEC and how they are going to manage energy costs.
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Apr 12, 2023 15:15
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mastershakeman posted:ill never forget a price war between rival gas stations who drove prices down to 19 cents a gallon in 98 (i think, somewhere in 96-99). filled up the truck ,filled up the 100 gallon gas tank in the bank, and i think my dad made a few more trips because he'd fill up the spare 500 gallon tank we had and then go back and get more. getting 100 gallons for under $20 (by a penny) was just You can thank the Saudis.
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Apr 12, 2023 15:25
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FlapYoJacks posted:Ok but when in the last two decades has earnings made a difference with number? The market is just trading inverse to the dollar, if you want to predict the market or Bitcoin, you have to predict the dollar and Fed rates. Personally, I don’t think there will be a 2008 collapse but rather the Fed is going to be rapidly increasing its balance sheet which in turn is going to weaken the dollar. There may be some drops here and there though if the Fed has some surprise rate increases. The market has long detached from the economy, it is all about the dollar at this point.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:45
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a_gelatinous_cube posted:The market just shrugged off the almost implosion of the entire banking sector like it was nothing. There is so much money sitting in money markets waiting to buy the dip in the upcoming recession I am starting to think it won't actually have a significant pullback. Cash is sitting in money market accounts beside they are giving pretty fantastic rates historically speaking, but to “unlock” that money the Fed needs to dramatically cut rates. I think we are more going towards a “sideways” market.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:02
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The doomsday part is for what’s left of the American middle class.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:16
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Zodium posted:the main thing goons have been wrong about is that the collapse would manifest in the markets, but it's the opposite: it manifests as the markets and the economy's controlling systems decoupling from material conditions. number will soar to unthinkable heights as child labor, environmental devastation and the infeasibility of existence at large proliferates from the bottom up in the imperial core. Also, markets don’t really have even anything to do with profits at this juncture either as they long have detached from them as well. It doesn’t mean they will collapse but it just a computerized tulip trade at a certain point. That said, the dollar itself is a little more tricky because so much depends on its value, and if anything de-dollarizatiom may be good for markets even if the country itself suffers for it.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:34
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Justin Tyme posted:Re: "if everyone is poor companies will suffer from lack of customers!"- iirc this isn't true, and what is happening are companies are starting to cater exclusively to 10%er whales while ditching cheaper markets altogether. I know in some cases "cheaper" options have gone away because margins are too low even if volumes are good. You see this especially in the auto market, why sell 3 budget cars when 1 "luxury" model sells for the same amount at a higher margin and is constantly backlogged? They are going to do that, but arguably it also means a relatively shrinking market due to the fact there are only so many whales. Usually, severely unequal societies don’t prosper for long.
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Apr 13, 2023 19:58
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Raskolnikov38 posted:that’s not chattel slavery though Got to ask the Supreme Court...
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Apr 14, 2023 13:57
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Frosted Flake posted:I don't know if Americans are taught how insane American slavery was even by the standards of slavery. Matt Karp has written about it and had a good Chapo episode, but when you followed their ideology to its natural conclusions, which of course happened after succession because they were no longer "constrained", it created levels of dysfunction that annihilated Southern society. Not just for black people, obviously, but for whites as well, the "federal" government in Richmond, the state governments. There were no functioning institutions in the South by Appomattox, and much of what Lost Cause romantics blamed on the Yankees was already happening when Union armies arrived. Yeah, and parts of the south, specifically Appalachia was pretty mixed as far as the Confederacy went as much of its economy was made up of small holders that didn't have much to gain from a plantation-state. There was considerable resistance against conscription as well. As far as Grant goes, he usually is severely underestimated as general, and while many of the engagements he lead were bloody, he also showed clear results and there is a firm argument to be made that the Vicksburg campaign by 1863 had broken the back of the Confederacy and from that point it was mop up. Gettysburg only determined how long that mop up was going to take.
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Apr 14, 2023 15:33
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Eric Cantonese posted:From what I understand, Meade and McClellan were doing a great job of getting lots of Union soldiers killed even though they were more cautious and their caution basically stretched the war out longer. I always found criticizing Grant for high casualties kind of weird since we were talking about very emotionally charged war with no feasible middle ground compromise. Those kinds of wars kill lots of people, unfortunately. It was also about the total results of his campaigns as well, Shiloh was hard fought but clearly a critical victory that would lead to the battle of Corinth and Union domination of much of the upper south (as well as eventually leading to Vicksburg). At Vicksburg, the entire Confederate Army of Mississippi was wiped out. The Chattanooga campaign opened up Georgia. The Overland campaign is probably the campaign Grant is more criticized for, but in all honesty, it while very blood, also hemmed the Confederates into Central Virginia as the rest of the Confederacy was collapsing. It didn't end the war but effectively neutralized Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia forcing them into defensive positions in a war of attrition that the North could win. It was about results. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 16:21 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 16:01
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I am for massive cuts and austerity and for the yields of American bonds to skyrocket.
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Apr 15, 2023 16:40
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Rectal Death Adept posted:I complained about the Ukraine war thread which at the time of that posting was full of some pretty heinous poo poo that it got hit for months later. I stand by everything I said in both threads including that the GBS thread went off the deep end after that and had to be reigned in. So you are predicting that a poster is going to go rogue and fire an artillery shell at the toe of a Ukrainian Nazi? I mean...it isn't impossible.
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Apr 21, 2023 13:44
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From that paper: "Our finding that “Coal and petroleum products” is by far the most important sector for inflation underscores the challenges involved in maintaining price stability while transitioning to non-fossil fuel energy sources." Its the oil, stupid! ------------- Anyway, if you have a spike in both oil prices and shortages in other sectors, it gives near-monopolies wide-control over prices. At its root, the inflation that is currently being felt is a result of both the recovery from the pandemic as well as the Ukraine conflict and its impact on US relations with OPEC. However, housing/food/retail show greater profit-taking than other industries, which suggests that those sectors (usually ones where people don't have a choice) are where the worst gouging is happening. Essentially, it is a double-whammy, not only has oil prices had flowed through the economy but certain critical sectors people have to rely on are taking profit-taking as much as possible. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 14:53 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 21, 2023 14:35
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anonumos posted:As anyone with half a brain could see a year ago. Ukraine, the World's Breadbasket and right on the middle of the flow of fossil fuels from Russia...that was bad news after the pandemic. I'm still not sure what Putin expected, but he was clearly mistaken about the readiness of his army. Put all that aside (there's a thread for that), it turbofucked the world economy and there's a thousand stories for why it's Workers' fault when it's clear as day what is really going on. It did that, but there were also several other issues that made it worse. The decline in Saudi-US relations specifically has meant that OPEC is purposefully keeping oil at a higher level than it should be. In addition, you already had a housing crisis before March 2022, and that isn't going away. Furthermore, there are some pretty clear signs of price-gouging in the data from food retailers. At this point, many communities simply don't have a choice between Walmart or Kroger, and they can set prices at will. ----------- I think deflation is going to be tricky while would expect, as back in 2008-2012, that a recession would cause lower prices and inflation to offset other factors. But in reality, energy and housing prices are simply not falling quickly enough, while wages are unable to catch up. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:13 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 21, 2023 15:06
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Turtle Sandbox posted:Yes, where my enlisted Canadian artilleryman? There is a Canada thread in GIP.
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Apr 21, 2023 15:38
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The issue right now is really mostly energy prices, with some increases from housing and profit taking by retailers. A lack of oil = higher prices = inflation with some other issues on the side Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:04 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 21, 2023 16:19
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webcams for christ posted:don't forget supply chain disruptions and container shortages. it's a very complicated intertangled web and I don't know if we have enough evidence to make a very strong determination of exactly how large a role higher energy prices had. plus second-order effects like energy futures markets, etc The journal article posted above which much specifies that it is oil prices that are causing most of the damage. If oil prices go from $20-30 to $100-120...it is simply going to have huge downstream effects. America runs on oil and if will eventually perish if it doesn't have enough of it.
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Apr 21, 2023 17:01
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webcams for christ posted:yes, Weber et al's article I posted says first-order impulse for price increases are fossil fuels, chemicals, metals, compounded by second-order bottlenecks like wood and shipping. I wasn't suggesting that oil isn't important, just that there are many more valuables in play than are currently being discussed, with the most interesting parts of the paper being all of the publicly listed companies whose profit margins grew despite all of the above. I think every company is also taking advantage of the situation as much as they could from the pandemic and then oil prices only pushed prices higher, which they chisel a little more off of. The paper shortage is interesting because there was decreased supply (along with decreased timbering) during the start of the pandemic while lumber prices have generally fallen, it hasn't showed up in paper. Obviously, energy prices also rose at the same time, but it doesn't really explain the issue on its own besides there is cartelism going on. FlapYoJacks posted:Streaming is killing the movie theater industry but it's not killing it fast enough. $30-35 for watching a 2 hour movie with a popcorn and soda is very good and fair compared to just downloading it and buying some pop secret
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Apr 21, 2023 17:33
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I don’t know if it is a great idea to force a debt ceiling debate while the yields on US debt haven’t been this high in more than a decade but… go for it.
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Apr 21, 2023 19:55
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Yeah, it is going to depend on the strength of the USD/energy prices going forward, if the Fed is boxed into a hawkish position then yeah the tech sector is going to feel it even if it is more part of a long term trend than a sudden 2000-style crash.
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Apr 22, 2023 09:21
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Mustached Demon posted:I feel like the entire tech sector is banking on AI garbage being the next smart phone or something Yeah, it is just that the "App Era" mostly coincided with 0% rates. The issue is that the tech sector is going to have going forward is that they need reliable markets around AI not just buzz. I guess there could be some use at the enterprise-level, and that could be a somewhat lucrative market, but it seems like everyone is rushing into the field at the same time.
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Apr 22, 2023 09:37
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