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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Azran posted:

"hey guys, I'm from the country where my current president has had a hand in terrorist acts against their own people". :(

A month ago I'd be able to make a Sri Lanka joke. :negative:

Sirisena better actually fix the country, because Rajapaksa is the President for Life of My Heart.

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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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What an inspirational story. :unsmith:

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Not hugs, balloons, and cake. :ohdear:

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Dias posted:

Brazil is pretty much what would happen if China made one of their traditional ripoffs out of the entire United States of America. A good chunk of middle and upper-middle class basically think they're Americans, it's just that they pretend to be from the 00s while they actually think like people from the 50s. It leads to these interesting contradictions, as joe pointed out. It's hard to be cosmopolitan when an actual cosmopolitan person will look at you and go "...that's kinda backwards", so people take the liberal left position in English and whatever center-right line of thinking they find more interesting in Portuguese.

I love my sister-in-law to death, but this isn't an entirely inaccurate assessment of her politics. :v:

Edit: what's this about the Sao Paolo government murking people? Not that I'm necessarily surprised, I just hadn't heard it before.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Magrov posted:

So, Supreme Justice Zavascki, the judge in charge of the Lava Jato case in the Supreme Court, just died in an air accident.

Stay tuned for conspiracy theories.

In Brazil, in case filthy foreigners like me were unaware.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Conspiratiorist posted:

That's just tax evasion (undeclared sales).

Everyday corruption refers to things like small businesses not having permits or paperwork, knockoff products or pirated films being sold in the open, being able to discuss with your phone/cable guy if you can get an off-the-books installation, half-jokingly telling a cop that pulls you over if you can give him money for lunch and drinks instead of writing you a ticket (and them usually not getting super offended about it), getting in the good side of low level bureaucrats so you'll be treated with with better attention, getting in the good side of mid-level bureaucrats so you will be treated with much better attention, and the far most common you'll see: people bragging about partaking in the above.

Not Latin America, but there's a joint in one of the main Sri Lankan malls in the capital that is a pirated-DVD store. :haw:

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Dias posted:

That's another point: I think America is incredibly corrupt, but it had the cash and structure to avoid loving up too hard. Hell, I look at Japan and that country is a mess too, South Korea had a CULTIST in power and she didn't even had the decency to be a Satanist like our dude.

The President Park thing will never stop being funny (not least because she's out of office now).

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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bagual posted:

It's not like "oh we have to because of informality", it's about a 30-40% tax on consumption, 4% tax on inheritance and literally no taxes on profits and dividends.

Also, the brazilian market is not THAT informal anymore, you want a documentation black hole go to Paraguay

what

what

aaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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El Chingon posted:

so what's the deal with the lost submarine in Argentina? was it negligence on the poor state of the navy? Or the submarine was secretly carrying the invasion plans of Uruguay and the government is all :doh: about it?

Uruguayan pirates boarded it and commandeered it and are now threatening to make their careful and meticulous photography of it public.

Tony Sorete posted:

All of the above (potentially).

In reality, lots of theorizing but no real clue beyond an explosive event very close to the last known registered position of ARA San Juan in November 15, and a few reports of repairs mismanagement, especially focused around the battery banks (it's a diesel-electric unit), which may have caused a hydrogen gas explosion after inadvertently getting in contact with some water, either from an exposed hull section or a snorkel failure.

Glorious Argentinian submarine probably would not, for example, accidentally operate the toilet incorrectly and sink to the bottom of the ocean.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Shibawanko posted:

So Bolso's going down in the polls a bit right? Is there any chance he may yet lose?

my sister in law voted for Not Bolsonaro, so i think we'll be fine

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:

Notice that the usual liberals in the media carping about how venezuela is a dictatorship are remarkably silent about brazil electing a literal fascist

Both are bad.

Also I don't pretend to be a representative media consumer but A) I bet you aren't either and B) I've seen PLENTY of "uh, Bolsonaro's actually pretty horrifying".

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Ramrod Hotshot posted:

I'm interested in an in-depth look at Venezuela's collapse that's not propaganda. I mean, anything is going to be biased from some direction, but I'd like to read something more than socialism = bad. Any good articles on this?

In very roughly descending order of how much I like them, here are four reasonably neutral (or at least not "socialism = bad" as their main angle) summary articles

https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/chris-carlson/crisis-in-venezuela-and-its-lessons-for-left April 2018, pretty solid

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/19/16189742/venezuela-maduro-dictator-chavez-collapse Reasonably detailed, some of the sentences may make leftists angry, also it's from 2017 so it's missing some of the more recent fuckery and catastrophes

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/04/venezuela-happening-170412114045595.html Bullet points, but lots of them

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877 it's fine

I can pretty much guarantee there's better stuff out there but this was a cursory google for introductory-ish stuff.

Edit: here's one from a left-er perspective that still isn't Maduro apologism: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/07/venezuela-maduro-helicopter-attack-psuv-extractivism-oil

there was an interesting jacobin article that did a deeper dive on Venezuelan agriculture (and, uh, made a concerted effort to come up with reasons why Maduro wasn't to blame for food shortages) but I can't find it offhand

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 07:32 on Nov 2, 2018

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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RagnarokZ posted:

Yes, because toppled Latin American governments always end up so well. Wait? What's that? Dirty War? Throwing people out of helicopters over the ocean? Mass Graves? Nooo, that's just LEFT WING PROPAGANDA!

The best would be to just let them collapse, either into a new provisional government or a civil war. Just stay away from the whole mess, anything anyone else does will end in tears.

for a while I was hoping there might be some sort of reasoned and careful pressure the other South and Central American countries, particularly Venezuela's neighbors, could collectively apply without the US getting excessively tempted to gently caress around and then welp Brazil elected a Nazi

so yeah, i guess i'm stuck hoping Venezuela's continued implosion doesn't get too much more horrible for Venezuelans

Badger of Basra posted:

I remember when the Jacobin article came out and all the HANDS OFF NORTH KOREA people said this meant Jacobin was a CIA front.

that's silly, I don't see Brown Moses' name mentioned anywhere in the article

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Plutonis posted:

Aahehahahaehahahahahaehahaehaehaehaehaeheaheahaehaehaehaeha

way to elevate the discussion, jackass

It's not particularly clear to me whether "the presidency is vacant because Maduro rigged the election and fabricated a parallel legislature" is more constitutionally valid than "Maduro is president forever because there is no remedy specified in the constitution for violations of the constitution at this level", but that just means it's a constitutional crisis initiated by exactly the events in the post you 'responded' to.

fortunately, the Supreme Court is dominated by Maduro flunkies

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Dias posted:

As far as I understand, with my admittedly limited knowledge, Maduro is a disaster (even taking sanctions into account), but it's still hilarious that the opposition just went no im president now

And by hilarious I mean poo poo is gonna get weird and nasty

As I alluded to, it's the least crazy and horrible remedy to the situation short of Maduro's heart growing three sizes and/or the PSUV somehow revolting against its shithead leadership and restoring true socialist utopia. And given that it would require something resembling a constitutionally justified-ish military coup, it's still pretty crazy and horrible!

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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heck of a headline

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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qnqnx posted:

Please don't ever post again about South America, or at all about any topic, thanks.

please have some compassion for the plight of the customs officials on the Argentina-Venezuela border

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Scaramouche posted:

I work with 5 Brazilians but they're all upper middle class Japanese extraction so they're all pro-Bolso. Coxinhas I think the term is?

i'm very glad that my sister-in-law, her parents, and her best friend all hate Bolsonaro

i was worried because they're also relatively well off and pretty pale

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Pochoclo posted:

My favourite Evita quote is

"Franco's wife didn't like workers, and every time she could she characterised them as "reds" because they had participated in the civil war. I tried to hold it in until I couldn't anymore, and I told her that her husband wasn't a ruler due to the people's votes, but instead due to imposition through victory. The fatty didn't like it at all."

Also

"We'll never have enough chicken wire to hang all the contreras (oligarchy, guerrillas, etc)"

yeah the Perons were complicated and my feelings about them are complicated

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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...that's frankly a very polite and thoughtful sicario

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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ArfJason posted:

lol at the sicarios wearing payday 2 masks godspeed mexico, i hope the usa will stop funding the narcostate someday

that's necessary and urgent but not sufficient, a la how repealing Prohibition didn't gut American organized crime

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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man I kinda like Morales but on a cursory look the numbers do seem like they might be hinky

is there, like, a recount and auditing protocol or something

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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uninterrupted posted:

Given the protestors against morales are going around and burning ballot boxes he absolutely legitimately won.

It’s like the VZ opposition not wanting election observers; no one does that poo poo if they think they won.

the situations are not equivalent but good point it doesn't look great for the Bolivian protesters

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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zocio posted:

Also, please remember that Morales couldn't run for president again according to Bolivia's constitution, so he called a referendum, which he lost, so he sued and Bolivia's supreme Court sentenced that running for president is a basic human right and he cannot be impeded by silly things like the constitution.

this does not sound entirely ideal

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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joepinetree posted:

There may be questions over whether he won in the first round or not, but there's no question that the courts had ok'd him running, that he was ahead, and its a question that will never be resolved because the opposition has started burning ballot boxes. The idea that this is "dictator for life" is laughable. I hope that DSA tag is ironic.

people can disagree with you while still being leftists, bub

they can even be sarcastic or ironical about it :stonk:

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Cup Runneth Over posted:

It was a misconception that Morales used the court that he presumably appointed to circumvent constitutional term limits in order to let himself run for president again after losing a referendum on it. In reality, the court just struck down term limits that were shoehorned in under threat of an armed right wing insurrection, on the basis that that should not influence law and it was not added by the constitutional assembly. Or so I understand it.

yeah I think I have some mild criticisms of Morales here (should be getting a successor ready or ideally have one, the election immediate results were kinda :raise:), but the protesters at best angrily hosed up election integrity themselves and there's not really a good remedy to that that isn't unfair to SOMEBODY

hopefully things get resolved with a minimum of violence

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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I assume an FF win is not great, not terrible.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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wait, if his name is alberto, why is the acronym FF

his middle name is angel, so that can't be it

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Dias posted:

I'm just gonna add that Dilma got impeached by a coalition that stretched constitutional law to get her out and I'm pretty comfortable calling that a coup anyway.

I'd actually argue that the Dilma thing bears more resemblance to the nonsense bullshit invalidation of the Venezuelan National Assembly by Team Maduro and, even more closely, the invalidation of candidates and coalitions running againdt Maduro for the presidency. The remedies for the Venezuelan opposition in late 2018 / early 2019 consisted of

- Wobbly constitutionally fig leafed pseudo-coup to install Guaido and hold elections, or
- Revolt without fig leaf (other than the amusing line in the Venezuelan constitution about how armed overthrow of a tyrant is constitutional :v: )

they tried the former and ultimately fell flat on their incompetent faces, but I feel like the fig leaf was preferable to its absence?

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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I really really really want to see how you would respond if China somehow decided to back him

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Elias_Maluco posted:

Could not find another source and I dont know this one, but I saw it elsewhere (in portuguese)

https://twitter.com/estrelladigital/status/1191439894633205760

Opposition leader calls for the military to aid in deposing Evo

Seems bad

Does Morales have solid support in the military?

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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i can't properly evaluate the embassy allegations / PostCuba as a platform (seems to be this Marco Velazquez Cristo guy's blog?), but afaict based on PostCuba's own summaries the only mention in the audio of USgov conspiracy is Rubio-Cruz-Menendez being vaguely pro-Bolivian-opposition which, well, obviously

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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legalization is probably necessary but definitely not sufficient

for USians, we have an extremely direct analogy in alcohol prohibition - it vastly strengthened organized crime, and while repealing it sharply constricted their cash flow, the bell could not be entirely unrung because, like the cartels, they had already branched out a bit and still had enough resources to keep their footing through alternative industries

but prohibition repeal certainly wounded them

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Well, darn. Assuming the military et al let normal rules apply, who's next in line and are they good or bad?

edit and also assuming the left protesters don't get morales reinstated

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Buried lede in the twitter headlines:

quote:

Morales said he will call new elections after the Organization of American States (OAS) released a report saying a disputed vote last month that sparked deadly protests should be annulled because of irregularities.

In a news conference, the president also said he would replace the members of the electoral board that came under fire after being mired in widespread allegations of electoral fraud in the October 20 vote.

the opposition is, of course, demanding that Morales also not run again

OAS preliminary report on their apparent election-system concerns: http://www.oas.org/documents/spa/press/Informe-Auditoria-Bolivia-2019.pdf

i can't be bothered to machine translate it on my phone so I don't have an opinion on it

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Nov 10, 2019

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Pochoclo posted:

They're basically saying they found possible fraud to the tune of 350k votes, and Morales would have still gotten a comfortable majority, but it would have almost certainly gone to ballotage

Okay yeah, the first count round he just barely squeaked past the runoff bar so that's what I would have expected if any fuckery was suspected; do you / the thread have any idea whether the audit / report is reasonably credible?

Also, re my earlier question,

quote:

The resignations of Morales and his vice president meant it was not initially clear who would take the helm of the country pending the results of new elections.

According to Bolivian law, in the absence of the president and vice president, the head of the Senate would take over provisionally.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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joepinetree posted:

None of that changes the fact that this is a coup.

Evo first invited foreign observers to audit the results, then agreed to new elections, then resigned after his family was attacked and the military encouraged him to do so.

loving gusanos coming out of the woodwork today.

Are you alright with the first two?

I haven't developed an opinion on whether he should have resigned pending new elections (and the military taking a hand in it is, uh, not great, and I'm worried about what the interim government is going to look like now) but I think I'm okay with a redo in and of itself - it's annoying to reward the opposition protesters for destroying ballots but it seems like a reasonable remedy and, I mean, if Morales was going to legit win the first election he can legit win a second, right?

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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Majorian posted:

Given that the opposition has apparently burned quite a few ballots, I'm not sure they have the moral high ground here.

I keep waffling on what the remedy should be there. We don't want that to be a standard strategy by the side that thinks it lost, but "well guess we can't do a recount now, that means I definitely won" doesn't sit entirely well with me either.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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joepinetree posted:

Yes? A reminder that the only reason there was an audit was because Morales invited it. And if the audit found anything questionable, sure, have a do over.


But this is a coup. This is a coup in clear and uncontroversial ways. Anyone trying to deny that is trash whose opinions can be immediately dismissed.

Sure. I'm just crossing my fingers that the outcome isn't terrible and the new election is prompt, fair, and ideally won by Morales (or a substitute leftist if he gets screwed out of running as a result of this).

fake edit: actually based on what I know so far about the report, one remedy might be to not have a full new election but instead to just assume "okay, maybe all 350k votes or whatever were invalid, let's have the runoff that would have happened without them"

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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

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ANIME AKBAR posted:

In a vacuum, yeah, that sounds like a military coup. But it sounds pretty disingenuous to describe the situation in such black and white terms.

Any photos or video of the military marching into his office?

when the military politely suggests that you resign for the good of the nation, when the cops have already mostly flipped and you're having trouble with your own supporters, that's pretty :toughguy:


joepinetree posted:

Ah, no need for elections then.

so I think there might be some confusion on at least one of our parts, aren't new elections still on the agenda?

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