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A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
wow you're literally doing a holodomor splitting hairs argument.

they're killing everyone, so it cant be genocide!!!!!!!!

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A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Yeah, I get a bit prickly when what happened to the American Indians is described as a genocide.

It was really multiple genocides over a long span of time.

I get a bit prickly when people talk about na genocide as something that happened in the past and is not ongoing to this very day

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

HootTheOwl posted:

I guess sterilizing a people would be killing them off without actually killing them so technically correct, I guess.
Now in practice find me the genocide that didn't have killing.

The Canadian practice of forcibly removing native children from their families? Genocide is the attempted destruction of an identity, murder might be the most straightforward way to accomplish that but there are plenty of other ways to do it.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Brown Moses posted:

Seeing my opinion matters so much to some of you, here's my opinion on the incident in the New York Times:
https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1139642056538804224

Actually I am interested if you have a response to this particularly "pointed" comment on your article

quote:

Actually, I haven't seen anything that convinces me the Iranians are there at all.

The linked article references Ashoura-class and Zolfaqar-class speedboats. There's no mention of a Gashti-class or model. The only image resembling the boat pictured is linked to a dead video stream. Perhaps Gashti is a sub-type of Ashoura? We have no idea.

Either way, both patrol boats aren't exactly maritime archetypes. They're pretty generic speedboat designs adapted in specifically Iranian ways. If you can manufacture any fiberglass powerboat, you can probably knock together something that looks like the boat in the picture.

Assuming all the Iranian speedboats are even accounted for. I don't see any VIN markings on the allegedly Iranian vessel either. The US equivalent: Are we talking about the USS Cole or the USS McCain? That should be a pretty easy question to answer. Especially when you have image enough to spot a supposed limpet mine.

That's assuming the images are real at all. The special effects crew from "Enemy of the State" put together better work back in 1998.

Nope. Not buying it. I'm just as convinced US or Saudi impostors were trying to remove a mine they knew would reveal their espionage. There's absolutely no reason right now to believe one account anymore than the other. Actually, based on recent events, you can discount US and Saudi credibility quite substantially.

In particular the bolded portion.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Brown Moses posted:

The vessel visible in the video has multiple features that matches a specific vessel used by the IRGC and is known to operate in the area. Maybe I should have put "alleged" in front of it, but I was relying on the reader to take it in the context of being a US claim, despite the strong match to the known IRGC craft.


I've been meaning to following this up (busy preparing our new MH17 report), but if they were moving it would exclude the possibility of divers placing the objects on the vessel, even ignoring the fact they were placed well above the waterline. That would mean a boat would had to have placed it on the vessel, so then there's the question of how a boat would have approached the vessel without it being noticed.

Marine Traffic published this animation showing the boats movements on the day:
https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/1139096909585498113

I think one valid critique of your article is that your present the assertion that the IRGC was removing UXO rather than possibly a magnetic mooring device.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

MiddleOne posted:

what


Absolutely not true for any academic field even tangentially related to institutions, economics and law.

I....think he's being ironic? Also tons of human adjacent sciences are hella political too.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

If Brown Moses had presented such evidence this post would be correct. He didn't.

..uh, how else would you characterize the video released by the US Navy?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Tab8715 posted:

Worse than ‘08?

if they manage to actually close the strait of Hormuz the price shock alone from the world's shipping capacity being hosed would take months to recover from.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Squalid posted:

Well whoever it was managed to avoid detection prior to the attacks, so that's a minimum level of competence met. Also the US has not changed its story regarding the nature of the attack, always saying it was a mine I think. Planting a mine would not be the hardest part for the Saudis, rather I have doubts they could keep it under wraps. It's high risk behavior, if they are caught it would poison relations and they'd get nothing.

I really dislike this style of reasoning whereby we try to guess at the motivations of nations and leaders, and thereby infer who is responsible. It just strikes me as bad practice, the only reason I wrote out that last post was because I felt Delthalaz was sincerely confused as to the nature of the argument.

The problem with using our estimate of a nation's interest/motivation to carry out these bombings to guess at the perpetrator is ultimately it's not going to have made sense for anyone to have done it. Why would Saudi Arabia bomb like six ships carrying their own oil? Doesn't make sense. Why would Israel risk throwing away all the trust they have with US intelligence just to get some token revenge attack? Doesn't make sense. Why would the US frame Iran for the attacks and then not do anything and call for diplomatic solutions? It doesn't make sense. Why would Iran believe attacking tankers would bring the Americans back to the negotiating table instead of just making them retaliate? It. Doesn't. Make. Sense.

Looking for motivation first, and then judging the evidence by how well it fits that just seems like bad practice. Unfortunately, the only organizations that are capable of investigating these incidents also have a stake in the outcome. The result is uncertainty.

By the way, the US navy released pictures today of what they said were parts of the bombs used in two of the attacks.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-attacks-navy/us-navy-says-mine-fragments-suggest-iran-behind-gulf-tanker-attack-idUSKCN1TK1DX

THE US military has been wishy-washy on who they are blaming for the attacks. They have not aggressively blamed Iran they way Pompeo has.

I mean, the US doing it actually makes the most sense by far because the government has outright descended into factions with completely different FP goals.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
For the love of god Squalid, log off.

you've picked a fight with like 3 people for the crime of being nuanced in the last couple pages.

go outside ffs

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Hajotus Maximus posted:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/11/world/middleeast/syria-torture-prisons.html

Some info about the syrian torture facilities with helpful links containing even more information. poo poo's pretty bad , especially for women. Imagine surviving a stint in a torture dungeon only to find yourself hiding from your own relatives because they want to honor kill you.

um

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Hajotus Maximus posted:

Imagine surviving a stint in a torture dungeon only to find yourself hiding from your own relatives because they want to honor kill you.

No, seriously, what the gently caress is wrong with you.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Oh, I thought he was editorializing.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Darth Walrus posted:

This is why we read the articles, kiddies.

i will never, ever, read an article

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Aziz of Arabia posted:

Thanks.

Still, they're invited by the Saudi government. Who cares about what some extremists think?

Appeasing terrorists is how the Holocaust happened.

yes i'm sure completely ignoring popular sentiment will work out this time

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
first time seeing a stalin-did-nothing-wrong tankie.

but semi related, are there significant intra-kurdish tensions?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Kawasaki Nun posted:

Way to explain an era of American history to people that lived through it. That you think observing headlines or whatever from across the world gives you an insight into the prevailing American culture of the day (as if that is homogenous to any significant degree) really explains all the nice hot takes you produce.


Are you under the impression that lovely kids saying horrific racist poo poo is a product of the second gulf war?

You're dead wrong about basically everything you've posted about this topic

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Kawasaki Nun posted:

care to draw this out for me like I'm an idiot? I didn't really fully understand your first iteration of this comment either.

america went completely insane during from 02-07. what you call fringe jokes were the dominant cultural mores of the period.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

Freedom fries were literally the definition of fringe. Mainstream chains did not go for it and even amongst chuds it was a little embarrassing.

TV and internet articles reflect reality, but they are not reality.

freedom fries were completely mainstream. christ there weren't even "chuds" back then, it was all mainstream republican support in full throated defense of american supremacy

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
https://twitter.com/OKnox/status/1213219771178770432

they literally thought this was no big deal.

luv two start a war on accident

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Unimpressed posted:

What choice will they have? I guess they could try to make their own peace with Iran if they object.

The point is that the US is more able to cause wanton destruction on Iran than vice versa. I'm not supporting such destruction, I'm sure nothing good will come from it, but the US will "win" a war of tit for tat attacks, especially since it doesn't have as many interests in the middle east as it used to and no longer depends on Saudi oil.

from where, precisely, will we be staging the launches of this wanton destruction?

if you haven't noticed we've pretty much pissed literally every single ally we had in the region

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Unimpressed posted:

Anyway I feel like I should take a break for a while. There's a lot of hysterical catastrophising here right now.

For the record, here's what I think:
1. The strike will not accomplish anything.
2. It will cause untold civilian death and destruction.
3. It will strengthen the Iranian regime and ultimately Iran's position in the middle east.
4. It will further destroy the last remnants of morality in the US armed forces.
5. It will embolden the worst of the world's leaders including Trump himself, Bibi, Erdogan, Putin and Khamenei to be even more outrageous and callous.
6. It will not lead to Iran destroying the US forces in the middle east or any of its allies.
7. It will not lead to mass strikes against the US mainland nor to World war 3.

these grover edits are getting obtuse

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Is there anything I can read on the background of Suleimani being in Baghdad with Iraqi officials that were also killed in the attack? All I got here is that he just kind of happened to be there and these Iraqi officials just happened to also be in the convoy or something. I can't imagine that it was something really clear-cut like they were all just twirling their mustaches, cackling about how they're going to destroy America or something. I'm wondering if there was some diplomatic function or something else going on that the US also managed to poo poo all over.

my understanding was that suleimani was on an official state visit to iran's allies in iraq

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
like, it's a literal fact of the matter that anti-ship weapons are decades ahead of anti-anti ship weapons

if someone well positioned wants to sink the aircraft carrier, it's going to happen

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

yep, this video is gonna be plastered all over the place in the coming weeks, this is straightup george lucas "its like poetry, it rhymes" in terms of imagery

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
https://twitter.com/ccpcciea/status/1427199664751788035

according to translation, the french embassy has reopened in kabul with the ambassador planning to resume duties after the takeover. same for russia, pakistan, and turkey's embassies.

that was loving quick

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
honestly i broadly agree with nix's take about the cia and drug trafficking and think he's mostly on point, but I disagree that the cia pushed for invasion of afghanistan for the explicit purpose of perpetuating the opium trade. like hell, we didnt need any additional info to invade afghanistan after 9/11, we were out for blood.

that said, once we got there? you drat well better believe the cia did all it could to get itself a piece of those narco-profits

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Grip it and rip it posted:

Why were they so eager to get narco profits right after having a massive budget increase?

...because they've shown on numerous occasions in the past to have zero compunctions about utilizing the drug trade for funding and the military industrial complex is just as much of a reflection of the idiocy of Number Go Up as the rest of our godforsaken political economy?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Rent-A-Cop posted:

It's the "An rear end in a top hat fighting an rear end in a top hat is depressing no matter who wins" conundrum.

fixed :smith:

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
drat, Caro gofundme when?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

He was and is hosed up, but don't forget the dude filmed himself playing soldier and shooting at people, and lied about being a trained medic. In a warzone where actual people were hurt and needed help from actual trained medics. If anyone deserved what he got, he did, and it's a loving shame that so many died there where he survived and gets to be a celebrity.

Man what the gently caress, the guy got tortured in prison for months and is currently homeless

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Dude filmed himself cackling while he shot wildly into residential areas. Dude actively hosed with treatment of wounded people. I'm glad he's not dead, but the only reason he gets a modicum of sympathy is that he's a white american goon. A rando libyan with the same trajectory would just be "well, that's that."

He's loving disgusting. Mental illness is not a shield for anything and everything you do.

you do not properly comprehend the presence of mind that people with unmedicated schizophrenia possess

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Sinteres posted:

Even with the understanding that it's money we gave Afghanistan in the first place, and aside from the humanitarian issue (which is real), it's a massive abuse of our financial power. Between this and the ever-increasing sanctions regimes the US is setting up, we're practically begging the rest of the world to look for alternatives. Nobody likes the Taliban, but if we can do it to them, we can do it to other countries too. Even when we froze Iran's money, we didn't just go ahead and start distributing it to Americans.

dont worry man im sure there will be no consequences from causing a complete social collapse in afghanistan, people are physically incapable of leaving the geographic borders of the country they belong to, right?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Grip it and rip it posted:

Oh wow SA and the UAE tried? Guess that's a wrap on the entire strategy.

What part of the US's sterling record in asymmetrical conflicts makes you so confident about its chances of success?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Nameless_Steve posted:

IDF has wrapped up the above-ground operation in Gaza and is going on to destroy them in the tunnels. This allows them to turn their attention to the other groups who have been launching rockets and missiles at Israel's civilians, as the 1M internally displaced Israelis evacuated from the north grow louder.

The combat operation in Gaza went relatively well, with only 175 IDF casualties. The airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria have apparently worked in scaring Hezbollah a few clicks north. Israel's demand is 18 miles.



I'm sorry what? The only thing Israel has been doing in Gaza is indiscriminately slaughtering civilians. Hamas, ironically, is the group best situated to survive this sort of genocide campaign.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Ok, but moral outrage aside, he is factually incorrect about the effectiveness of Israel's campaign against Hamas

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Deteriorata posted:

That's not a demand, that's extortion.

extortion is good if its done to stop a genocide

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

mobby_6kl posted:

I'm sorry but this is doesn't make any sense for a number of reasons. Houthis have been engaging in piracy and attacks on shipping for years, their statements mean jack poo poo, they aren't meaningfully affecting change, and they're attacking civilians that have nothing to do with Israel.

Let's do a thought experiment. How many russians (or hell, absolute randos) am I allowed to kidnap and murder?

Their actions are directly causing economic pain for Israel. You are certainly free to assert their true motivations are self-serving, but their actions have had a measurable impact

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Kalit posted:

This is because of the global pressure that prevents Israel from carpet bombing the living poo poo out of everything [to an even higher degree]. It has nothing to do with the Gazan militant force. Unless you count them being smart enough to hide within the civilian population to prevent said carpet bombing, I guess.

buddy do you legit think israel is restraining itself when it comes to attacking gaza?

they are simply running into the hard limits of air power; to actually complete a destruction of hamas, or a total genocide of palestine, they need to send in warm bodies

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A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

FlamingLiberal posted:

Pretty much yeah.

Since it’s very clear that no one is going to step in to stop the Israelis turning all of Gaza into a parking lot

Questionable timing of this post since the icj just rolled overwhelmingly in favor of SA's case for Palestine!

https://twitter.com/jeremyscahill/status/1750851378417696921

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