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Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

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Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
So, remember how we have been told repeatedly that a huge proportion of infected people don't even experience symptoms yet still keep spreading the virus?

Some interesting results out of two Swedish studies this week. Machine translated article with links to the study results.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-undersokning-nastan-alla-smittade-far-symptom posted:

Study shows 95% of all sampled infected showed symptoms, eventually
A total of 52 cases of covid-19 were identified in the study and of these, 44 individuals were asymptomatic at sampling. One week after sampling, all but two of the 44 asymptomatic said they had developed symptoms.

Basically, a cohort study where they polled 4000 people before testing, when testing and a week after testing.
Two things to take away:
- When following a checklist for specific symptoms, people tend to answer "yes" to a higher extent than when just asked "are you feeling ill at the moment"
- The sample size is small but it seems to indicate that the number of asymptomatic spreaders could be overestimated - they may have just been pre-symptomatic. It's a fine distinction to make, but we were told by the same authority mid-2020 that "as many as 9 out of 10 could be asymptomatic and still shed the virus" which seems may have been very very wrong.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 13:02 on May 8, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

CaptainSarcastic posted:

I think the hyperfocus on death rates has always been a mistake, and it is especially a mistake when trying to increase vaccine uptake. The number of possible non-fatal negative outcomes is pretty high and pretty disturbing, and I think applying a little more attention to those could help spur more hesitant people to get their drat shots.

So much this.

A friend's brother (ca 35-ish) is still suffering since April 2020. His brain is pretty OK but fuzzy, so some days he can work from his bed (he's in IT). Physically, he can barely get to the bathroom and back (and then collapse for hours from the strain).

The kicker? His kid of 11 caught the same and is also bedridden since April. He's missed a full year of school. At least the kid recently started showing some signs of recovery, he was able to go outside for an hour and see some friends before he got so tired he had to go back to bed.

My cousin (38) also caught it in April 2020 and is having a version that comes and goes. She's completely out of it for several days, then can be pretty fine for up to a week at a time.

As an almost-40-year-old, I've been aware that the risk of death to me is small, but I don't know that permanent (?) disability is all that much better.

Are there numbers for "long covid" sufferers in the US?

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 23:04 on May 8, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Bape Culture posted:

It is weird that the doom posting goons have anecdotes that contradict entire countries and actual studies.

It'd be way easier to have a conversation if you could quote & name the statements/posts you have a problem with, instead. This here is not productive and won't change anyone's mind. But maybe you were in a hurry.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

hot cocoa on the couch posted:

tangentially related, this is something i wonder about - now that it's been around for a little while, how many pieces of contemporary media are set in "covid-earth"? i don't really watch tv or movies, are there any that have their characters wearing masks all the time? or dealing with covid storylines? i wonder if there'll be a bunch of teen dramas and comedies and poo poo that have a super serious episode about a character dying from covid or something lol (if there haven't been already)

Lots of arthouse cinema exploring the themes of isolation and quarantine came out in the past year. Plots that happen all on zoom, or similar abound.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

wilderthanmild posted:

Getting groceries and you see a no appointment, no cost vaccination site while you've been dragging your feet, hell you might get it then. Get offered by your work to get a shot on a day they have people coming to come do it, sure why not.

This is how they handled swine flu vaccines here. I'd never gotten a flu vax before (they didn't recommend it to my age group at the time), but it didn't really take any convincing when they announced it in a work email: "flu shots for all employees, given out weeks X to Y, drop by room 22B any time". You've got exactly the right idea. This is how they should continue with the covid vaccines once we've bottomed out the age brackets. Set up pop-up clinics/vans at major workplaces, schools, universities, hospitals, supermarkets, any place a lot of people visit. I agree it should shave off another 5-10 percentage points in the long term.


Just for the love of god don't buy life-protecting equipment off Amazon. (At least if you're in the U.S.) Use a retailer who knows exactly where their shipment came from.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 12:11 on May 15, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Lolie posted:

I had my first dose of AZ about 5 weeks ago at a physician led vaccination clinic because that's how they were advising 1b people would be vaccinated prior to the vaccine becoming available at GP practices. Today I got an email telling me that I'm eligible to receive Pfizer at a large, hospital-based vaccination hub. I took the AZ precisely because it was supposed to be the only vaccine available to me. Grrr.

Well, on the bright side, you’re now pretty much immune, almost two months before you would have been in case you’d gotten the Pfizer tomorrow. (Going by the number I’ve heard, that the AZ gives you a ca 70% immunity after three weeks post the first dose. I don’t have a source for that apart from word of mouth from an MD who I’m pretty sure is not a virologist.)

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 19:17 on May 16, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
On the topic of relaxing restrictions.

https://www.thelocal.se/20210512/sweden-delays-relaxation-of-covid-19-events-restrictions-until-at-least-june-1st/

The Local posted:

[...] This proposed relaxation was planned to come into effect from May 17th, after being postponed twice already.

Now the plan is that these changes will come into force from June 1st, but whether that happens is dependent on the spread of infection and burden on the healthcare sector.

Löfven said that when it happens, this will be “the first step in the government’s work to adapt and adjust the restrictions as the situation allows”.

“If everyone follows the restrictions and recommendations that are in place, and if the vaccinations go as they should, it is likely that we will return to a more normal situation in September,” he said.

It was announced that from June 1st, restaurants, bars and pubs will be able to open until 10.30pm, two hours later than the current closing time of 8.30pm. Again this is dependent on the level of infection at that time.

And from June 1st, the recommendations from the Public Health Agency will also be adjusted to a small extent. The agency’s director Johan Carlson said that the recommendation against indoor and outdoor summer camps and sports matches and competitions would be removed at this point, but that all the other recommendations will stay as they are.

This means that the general public will still be urged to work from home if they have the possibility, to limit social contacts to a small close circle, and to wear face masks on public transport in rush hour, among other things.

And the Public Health Authority (similar to the CDC's responsibilities) has announced guideline numbers for what is the "acceptable" levels before relaxing any restrictions, regarding:

* infections per 100 k
* hospitalizations
* ICU admissions

Of course, it's up to politicians to decide to follow those recommendations, but they will. I don't know why it would be so hard for other countries to do similarly: base policies on empirical evidence of reduced contagion. "If we have less than 200 infections per 100k in a two-week period, it's fine to <X>"

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

learnincurve posted:

I found the rare thing so pure in it’s stupidity that will unite the thread.

The BBC has decided that the volume of your voice should decide if you wear a mask or not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57087517


What fools we have been, we could have been unmasked all along if only we had known to whisper.

The charts do come off as incredibly stupid, because they seem to focus on loudness rather than the real take-away of the article, which is staying outdoors and limiting time spent. There's some dissonance between the messaging of the text and the illustrations.



They do seem to get each individual piece of information correct, don't they? They just seem to stumble on the landing by the repeated mention of loudness. Like, this is very sensible advice:

quote:

Such actions can make us feel more in control, but Dr Hughes said it would be better to focus on "duration, proximity and avoiding enclosed spaces".

Being indoors, with lots of different people, for longer periods of time, significantly increases the risk of the virus spreading.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Platystemon posted:

Whispering probably is legitimately safer than talking at normal volume, but I really don’t see that as a winning public health message.

We should try to push that choirs are just about the worst activity possible in a respiratory pandemic. Woodwind instruments might be worse. That’s about it.

Choirs are worse than anything else including wind instruments according to what I've read. Woodwinds like a clarinet or saxophone actually put out air at a very slow rate (in terms of velocity) compared to the puffs of speaking loudly or singing.

The possible worst culprit might be flutes, because you blow fast air straight out into the room, but I don't know if it's been compared to singing specifically.

The only sane conclusion to draw is that everyone unvaccinated should avoid singing or playing together indoors, but that is already covered by the recommendation to avoid meeting other people indoors.

TV Zombie posted:

A family member was stating that he heard that you can mix up your shots in that you can get pfizer for your first shot and then AZ or Moderna for the second shot and things should still be good.

Is this possible or good to do?

In addition to the above statements, Oxford researchers recently concluded that the known mild side effects (myalgia, fever etc) are slightly worse when mixing. No word on the efficacy/immunity if I read it correctly. It does not seem unreasonable that two mixed doses would work better than just one dose, but I'd wait for the official studies before trying that on myself.




https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57075503

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-04-14-alternating-vaccines-trial-expands-include-two-additional-vaccines-0


The reason for studying it, I think is because Sweden are considering not giving people a second dose of the AZ for safety reasons.

Edit: I misremembered, the study is run by Oxford U.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 14:58 on May 17, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
Hey, so in my country they're phasing in "anyone 50+" (born 1971 or earlier) to be vaccinated this week and onward, since they are apparently happy with what they could provide to 60+ a few weeks back.

Does anyone know what the evidence is, to support going by age downwards, once we're past the 65-year-olds?

I'm assuming the aim here is to reduce hospitalizations & deaths, and that a 54-year-old is slightly more at risk than a 44-year-old? But I haven't really seen numbers for that. In other words, how is vaccinating by age bracket better than just saying "it's a free-for-all" like the U.S. did in April?

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

greazeball posted:

Lemme guess what he does for a living--does he work with computers?

I've also got a godson's-father-married-to-a-dear-friend like that (who works with computers) and in his case it's just a pathological need to always be the centre of attention and always have the last word. There is no greater suffering than whatever inconvenience he has at the moment and no conversation can take place without his input. Your guy seems like he's figured out the one weird trick to make everyone pay attention to him and when that stops working he'll just go back to whatever online crew of yes men he's found that will tell him that he is history's biggest martyr for missing the ice hockey playoffs or having to wait another 2 weeks to go to the club.

I'm not going to say you're wrong about what type of personality this guy has. I just want to point out that, among all the people I've known with extravagant/narcissistic tendencies, only a single one has worked as a computer toucher. And he was mostly an instructor, at that.

I think computers in general is not where extreme extroverts tend to congregate. I have found them mostly in the arts, sports and teaching, so far. Places where you are likely to get a lot of attention and the chance to have lots of people look up to you (if you do well).

Unfortunately I think conspiracy theories can take hold in a lot of other types of personality, too.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

goddamnedtwisto posted:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144

e: Because I know people won't bother to click through - for context, this is basically in line with the real-world pre-variant efficacy numbers we've been seeing in the population as a whole, with a mixture of Pfizer and Oxford vaccines. So now it really is just a race to get the jabs in the arms at a faster rate to account for the faster spread of this variant.

Yeah since there is basically 0 uptake of the vaccine in India yet, there wouldn't really be any selective pressure on the virus to develop resistant variants there. It seems more likely to happen as soon as there is a large proportion of vaccinated individuals in an area, but still no herd immunity.

My personal hunch - if it happens, it's gonna be somewhere with lots of vaccinated people and also lots of people who don't protect themselves. With lax protocols for distancing, masking, tracing etc. In other words, somewhere in the US.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Vorik posted:

81% efficiency against a variant, with just the base vaccine alone no booster shots, is great news. Not really sure how you can read that and immediately start hunching about the worst hypothetical outcome.

Eh I don't see what I wrote that you could interpret as "immediately start hunching about the worst hypothetical outcome".
I wrote that I didn't see any cause for alarm about the Indian variant in particular, because there is not any real reason to believe it should defeat vaccines. Those who have baselessly speculating that it would be vaccine resistant are the ones who have been "hunching", if you ask me.

"The worst possible outcome" might indeed be a resistant strain of the virus, but we're not seeing that happen yet, is my point. And if it does, it will come from a partially-vaccinated nation. Maybe the worst possible outcome woul be a spiralling-out-of-control outbreak in South Asia where millions of people die, setting a developing nation back decades economically and socially? Maybe it's something else? We'll see.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

King Vidiot posted:

Right, but that would be per person if we're just talking about the odds of them getting infected. So a single person would have to handle every book in the library like every day for a week and touch their face after every single time to maybe get infected. And that's assuming they're not vaccinated. We hand out new library cards and/or take cash money at the desk far less than that so :shrug:

I dunno about your particular library situation, but couldn't you come a long way by just mandating disposable gloves whenever handling ID cards or cash? I imagine that's the safest and cheapest way.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Facebook Aunt posted:

Only if they frequently have you changing or sanitizing the gloves. If you wear the same gloves for 4 hours those gloves aren't remotely sanitary. And then if you unconsciously wipe your eye or rub your nose?

But then that's not "disposable gloves" anymore. That's "I wear these gloves for everything" which is completely useless, just like you noted.

The point of disposable gloves is you put them on, do the dirty stuff, then take them off carefully and dispose of them.

It is how they do things in healthcare and I see no reason it wouldn't work well in a library too.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Fur20 posted:

after shot #2 i've had pain from old wounds flare up for some reason. i can't lie on my left side cuz the rib i cracked coughing during shot #0 feels like it never healed!

Sounds like as generally inflammatory response, which I think is not too unexpected from any vaccination. Perhaps even more so from a vaccine for a disease that gives extremely potent inflammatory responses in some patients.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
The least it could do would be to also make you enjoy some food you used to hate.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

learnincurve posted:

The telegraph front page today is loving shocking. It’s all about how a group of concerned doctors, parents, and celebrities have written a letter asking Boris not to allow kids to be vaccinated because they feel it’s too dangerous and you might as well just play hbomberguy’s video about the MMR jab right now.

I haven't read the Telegraph article, but for what it's worth, the Swedish paediatrician's association recommends against vaccinating the under-15s, too. The argument is that there have only been studies on ~1000 patients, which is too few to rule out severe and very rare side effects. I assume the Telegraph argument is similar?

I guess I don't have an opinion either way - since Sweden has only gotten as far as the 50+ bracket yet, I guess it's fine to wait for more study results before making a call either way about kids.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

RoastBeef posted:

23% of 12-17 year olds in the US have had at least one dose - that's at least three orders of magnitudes more than a thousand people.

e. ~170k have at least one dose in my approx. sweden sized state alone.

Yeah, that's a good number. So someone should make a study on those kids, then. In fact, I think we can be fairly confident such a study is already in progress by the pharma companies, because they have an interest in getting their drugs approved for children. But until those studies are done, I'm afraid the "cautious" people have a point when they say "we don't have enough data on side effects for kids yet".

Yes, gently caress the Daily Telegraph indeed, but I'm not sure I'm willing to say "gently caress paediatricians who want to see studies done before approving drugs".

Edit:(BTW it seems like we're talking about different cutoff ages here, 15 vs 17, but I'm not sure how much it matters. The EMA approved the Pfizer shot for 12-to-15-year-olds: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/first-covid-19-vaccine-approved-children-aged-12-15-eu and that's the group that's being discussed in Sweden. N=2260, apparently, I was wrong when I wrote 1000 above.)

Edit 2: To be clear, we're talking about really rare side effects that only show up once per 10k or more. There is no reason to believe that these would look different for adolescents or children than for adults, but that's what happened with the 2009 Pandemrix vaccine. An "unknown unknown" if you will that saddled tens of thousands of kids with a debilitating narcoleptic condition, after an unforeseen autoimmune reaction in some genetically predisposed patients.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 12:15 on May 30, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

poverty goat posted:

My weird side effect is I've been cured of my seasonal allergies.

How long has it been now?

What I've read has been mostly in the category "speculation by people with general knowledge about immune systems but nobody has studied this effect". The hypothesis was that the immune system is too busy wrestling the vaccine to bother with doing silly autoimmune things like allergies. I have no idea if this makes sense, it's just what I read somewhere. If that hypothesis holds, I guess it would be pretty short-term, a matter of weeks at most.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
So today I learned that I am now able to book a vaccine appointment since my age bracket opened up on the other side of the country. So, I could snag an appointment on ... oh. Early morning on the 22nd of June. A 4-hour drive from here... And they would automatically book me for the second dose at the same clinic, late this summer.

Hm ...

Cost of renting a car and gas, skipping basically a day of work ... I'm still tempted.

Yeah they will open my age bracket locally at some point but at this pace, it looks like mid-July at the earliest.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Jun 2, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

SubNat posted:

I probably won't even get an offer for a dose until july-august, I was supposed to get an offer sometime now in june, but that's of course been postponed when they started prioritizing 18-24 year olds over 25-40 year olds.

1st vs second doses notwithstanding, I'm kind of split about this last thing you mentioned. (Hi there fellow middle-aged person.)

On the surface of it, yeah it sucks to get passed over for the youngs, after being passed over for the olds already. And there's no way a 20-year old is more "deserving" than the 30-year-old.

But isn't there an argument to be made that the 18-24 group is hit harder by having to isolate, since they are mostly still in school/college/university, or working service-sector jobs where they are exposed a lot? While us 30+ are more likely to already be self-isolating successfully with remote knowledge work etc - and also more likely to be in steady relationships with someone to support us. Not having read the Norwegian news at all, I would guess that that kind of reasoning would motivate that switcheroo.

I mean, in a perfect world there would not be age-based rollout past 55 or wherever the cutoff for higher risk of death is. It would be given to anyone who isn't able to self-isolate, first. Then of course, I would have to wait until bloody Christmas for my own shot, since I neatly check all the boxes for "this person is fine already" so I'm throwing stones in my own glass house here.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Jun 2, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

learnincurve posted:

That’s not so much escaped from a lab as someone caught something while inhaling bat guano and then merrily went about their day.

What it will boil down to is that real scientists will be able to tell if the original strain looks like a naturally occurring mutation or, to use the correct term I’m sure, someone has fiddled with it.

I agree about the bat guano thing. If that's the origin of the pandemic then it's not at all as bad as if the virus was manipulated and then accidentally released. Still, pretty bad.

But, about the second thing you wrote there, according to https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ (linked above), that's not the case at all.

quote:

[...] a group of virologists led by Kristian G. Andersen of the Scripps Research Institute. “Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus,” the five virologists declared in the second paragraph of their letter.

Unfortunately, this was another case of poor science, in the sense defined above. True, some older methods of cutting and pasting viral genomes retain tell-tale signs of manipulation. But newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case. Andersen and his colleagues were assuring their readers of something they could not know.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Blitter posted:

Ah, the ole "no-see-um" method. Very sciency!!

This more recent Nature article by Kristian G. Andersen discusses serial passage and other possibilities pretty well.

That's exactly the article that the "bulletin" article takes down in detail. He completely discredits the Andersen group's letter. I don't know why you write "this more recent" when it's from 17 March 2020 and the takedown Jeza posted is from last month? Maybe you linked the wrong article or something?

quote:

And that’s it. These are the two arguments made by the Andersen group in support of their declaration that the SARS2 virus was clearly not manipulated. And this conclusion, grounded in nothing but two inconclusive speculations, convinced the world’s press that SARS2 could not have escaped from a lab. A technical critique of the Andersen letter takes it down in harsher words.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Jun 3, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Blitter posted:

I should have said, recently quoted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1399852467873927173

Have you read the paper, and considered the validity of the "take down"? Have you considered the author? Did you know Nicolas Wade has been publicly denounced before by the very scientists and others who he has based his work on? 143 publishing scientists refuting his book wherein he describes a genetic and racial basis for social behaviour and class..

If you are fond of that article, fine. I have no idea how you think he discredits it.

I don't know what the gbs thread thinks of TWIV but there is an excellent episode from three days ago that discusses origin theories and evidence for and against.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-762/

I would encourage you to see what all the quoted scientists and their peers think of the origin being deliberate manipulation.

Hey, just wanted to say thanks for replying. Reading your last post, I wasn't sure if you had read the Wade article - if you read your post again you'll probably see what I mean. But I realize now you've studied this more than me so bear with me.

For someone who has no idea who is who in the world of virologists, I couldn't care less what the other researchers think about that Wade guy. But doesn't he bring up a few valid points about conflicts of interest? Like, if Daszak is a beneficiary of a grant from the NIH, which he was responsible for distributing to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, why would anyone take him as a neutral voice of science when he refutes the lab origin theory? Why the hell is he on the WHO committee that investigates the virus origins, if one of the two leading theories is that he financed the work that originated the virus?

I'm open to the possibility that Wade is lying through his teeth here, I don't know the guy, but that kind of information at least needs to be refuted or defended.

On the one hand, gently caress people who think class can be justified by genetics. On the other hand, even an idiot can be right once in a while.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 14:48 on Jun 4, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Lolie posted:

We also don't have a plan to immunised children, let alone the vaccine to do it.

Dude, nobody has that except maybe Israel. Almost everyone in the world is still worse off than your country, but good luck anyway!

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jun 4, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
I have been eating like poo poo and not working out, yet stayed at my starting weight from before the pandemic. I think I've lost about 20% of my muscle mass which is compensated for by new fatty tissue.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

MarcusSA posted:

I know 4 other women who are looking to have children and have the same stance. Luckily one just got pregnant and is going to get the shot after she gives birth.

From what I've read on the news, the mRNA vaccines (at least) have already been studied on pregnant women and deemed safe. Not sure why she would wait.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

I see Israel at 62% fully vaccinated at Ourworldindata (July 31st data), and 66.84% with at least one dose.

Why does this guy have them at ... I dunno, but less than 60? When I look at the same graph on ourworldindata, it shows 130 doses per 100 for Canada and 128 for Israel, which matches up with everything exxcept his Y axis.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Aug 1, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

wilderthanmild posted:

Edit: I see the drive is 18 hours. I guess the later two questions still apply. If you flat out cannot avoid the trip, two 9 hour trips with a hotel stay isn't all that much better. 18 hours drive is rough and would probably involve stopping frequently for diaper changes and such so it's gonna be more than that.

I'm not sure if you mean what I think you mean, but it reads like you think a hotel stay would be equally as unsafe as a 3-hour flight?

As a non-American, I assume there still exist those cheapo motels along the interstates, with separate entrances which we see in movies and TV?
As long as you're not sharing hallways, elevators, dining rooms etc with strangers, it's not really very risky to rent a room somewhere. The risk of catching Covid from a maid who cleaned your room earlier in the day is basically 0.
So, just avoid the breakfast buffet...

(Of course maybe taking 2 days to drive there and 2 days back again is just infeasible? In that case I'd postpone.)

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Hey, stupid question time. I got two of them:

1. How do they calculate the "recovered" number

2. What would someone use that number for?

quote:

Coronavirus Cases: 20,213,388
Deaths: 564,890
Recovered: 19,022,724

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

liz posted:

When you say vaccinated “early” how early are we talking? Jan/Feb? I got my second shot March 8th and I’m wondering if I’m coming up on my immunity waning zone of 6 months…

QuarkJets posted:

Jan/Feb. I got vaccinated at the same time so I'm basically treating myself as unvaccinated, for the sake of protecting others at least.

Hey, you two might have missed the good news. The reason they only promised it would last 6 months back when you got the shot, is that they hadn't run the trials longer than that, at the time. Well, guess what? Time has passed and they are proving still effective. So you can relax ever so slightly.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...2021/ar-AAN7p0I

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/01/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine-efficacy-six-months-bn/index.html

quote:

The findings indicate protection will last even longer than six months, vaccine experts said.
"The information coming from Pfizer-BioNTech is good news with evidence that those enrolled in the clinical trials last year are still protected. So we know that immunity will not be short-lived," Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert and dean of the school of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN.
"Hopefully the protection might last years, but we won't know until we know."

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Aug 11, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?
So this just happened in Sweden...

https://translate.google.com/transl...-an-80-smittade

quote:

The corona outbreak after the tantra festival is growing - more than 80 infected

82 people have now been found infected with covid-19 after the covid outbreak that occurred in connection with the tantra festival at the camp site Ängsbacka in Molkom.
About 500 people were present and the number of infected may increase further according to Region Värmland.
"It is serious," says the region's infection control doctor Anna Skogstam.

Tantra, of course, being not just about sex but a lot of other human interactions. According to people interviewed by the news. But yeah, we can assume a lot of those people were loving someone who had Covid.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Kuule hain nussivan posted:

Any opinions on this preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2

It found Pfizer to only be 42% effective at protecting against delta infection, BUT this was for the month of July in Minnesota and not a large scale finding from what I understood. What are the chances of it being just a statistical anomaly?

I don’t know how many Pfizer patients actually were infected in absolute terms, I just skimmed the abstract, but you probably caught on to the wide confidence interval:

quote:

BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI: 13-62%

If other similar studies of efficacy vs Delta are anything to go by, the true number will be somewhere in the 60% range which means this study doesn’t even have to be wrong, it agrees with them.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

remigious posted:

Yeah, and it’s possible he may have some protection from antibodies passed to him via breast milk, but there’s not a ton of research on it.

If I understand antibodies correctly, an infant who gets antibodies from breast milk will be protected only as long as it's breastfeeding. Those antibodies won't stick around, so as soon as the breastfeeding stops, the immunity will wane pretty quickly.

I could be wrong though, in which case I'm sure someone will correct me.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

John_A_Tallon posted:

Maybe I live some sort of bizarre blessed existence or something, but the majority of people who behave like that who I have gotten to know have shared with me that they were homeschooled for a period of years as children.

I live in a country where homeschooling is illegal* and I meet plenty of those needy people. Being more dependent on others for validation is just a personality trait like many others. If it gets to the level where someone can't live a normal life, it's called a personality disorder.

I guess what I'm saying is, there is no way in hell that is caused by homeschooling.

* You can get an exemption if the kid is too sick/disabled to attend. If you don't have an exemption, they will literally take your children if you don't send them to school.

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

MarcusSA posted:

Gives new meaning to the term “super spreader”

This news piece keeps on giving. They are now up to 109 participants (out of 500) who tested positive.

The hosting venue owner seems to simply be clueless.
(Apply your favorite translation engine.)
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/varmland/arrangoren-jag-blir-berord

This would, of course, be impossible unless a large proportion of the event were unvaxed. This spike has pushed the county up above “red” level by the EU guidelines and so residents are now barred from entering Norway and many other countries. (Even though the infected mostly came from other counties and from abroad, and have presumably returned there.)

Local mayor is righteously furious in a Facebook post.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158594133683683&id=679828682

“When the fact that a bunch of anti-vaxxers have been loving each other in Molkom leads to the border being closed for everyone in the county, it should be clear to anyone that both these people’s heads and the border crossing rules are completely hosed up.”

(I mean, he’s right about one of those things…)

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Aug 17, 2021

Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

OgNar posted:

This isn't even stupidity. She spent at least a few years of schooling and working to get where she is/was.
She's not stupid.

Just loving brainwashed.

I don't get it. But over the years I've known a few Hare Krishnas and other people that are just purely brainwashed.
Intelligent otherwise but simply refuse common sense.

According to this author's definition, she is indeed Stupid, but not at all dumb or uneducated.
https://psyche.co/ideas/why-some-of-the-smartest-people-can-be-so-very-stupid

It's an interesting take on it, trying to explain why some very smart people can make very bad decisions. Worth a read, IMO.

quote:

Stupidity is a very specific cognitive failing. Crudely put, it occurs when you don’t have the right conceptual tools for the job. The result is an inability to make sense of what is happening and a resulting tendency to force phenomena into crude, distorting pigeonholes.

This is easiest to introduce with a tragic case. British high command during the First World War frequently understood trench warfare using concepts and strategies from the cavalry battles of their youth. As one of Field Marshal Douglas Haig’s subordinates later remarked, they thought of the trenches as ‘mobile operations at the halt’: ie, as fluid battle lines with the simple caveat that nothing in fact budged for years. Unsurprisingly, this did not serve them well in formulating a strategy: they were hampered, beyond the shortage of material resources, by a kind of ‘conceptual obsolescence’, a failure to update their cognitive tools to fit the task in hand.

Edit: It's hardly a standard definition of "stupidity", I think it warrants a new name, but it applies really well to medical professionals with anti-vaxx sentiments, or people like Linus Pauling.

Hippie Hedgehog fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Aug 24, 2021

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Hippie Hedgehog
Feb 19, 2007

Ever cuddled a hedgehog?

Wendigee posted:

what the hell switzerland, germany and denmark?

Last I read about Denmark they were at 73,8% of entire pop fully vaccinated, which is way ahead of most countries. Did they gently caress something up, too?

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