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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Tree Bucket posted:

Where does the word "mobik" come from btw?

It's an contracted agent noun composed of the word мобилизовать and the suffix -ник.

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Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

GABA ghoul posted:

The President of Russia is an internationally wanted war criminal. Are you a bad enough dude to sneak into the Kremlin and bring him in?

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Mokotow posted:

AFAIK Ben is the shortest observable object in the universe

You know, I always find it a strange when people chose to mock Ben Shapiro or any other dude for the one thing he just is, no fault of his, instead of all the things he chose to be.

I'm short as well, but I chose not to be an insufferably smug dork or an imperialist dictator.

Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Mar 18, 2023

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Deki posted:

2 CSTO nations going to war with Russia only giving a half hearted "stop it, guys" pretty much sealed it

Azerbaijan withdrew from the CSTO in 1999. Internationally recognised Armenian territory was attacked in 2022 by a non-member state.

Russia said "sorry, busy" and the remaining members, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan just shuffled their feet and pretended they didn't hear anything. The CSTO is dead as a doornail.

thekeeshman posted:

Footage of a Russian missile system failing to shoot down a drone... twice.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639303533307543553

Not that surprising. The drone is a man portable model so it's pretty small and the heat seeker of a Strela is designed to shoot down much bigger targets with big bright heat signatures, like helicopters.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

fatherboxx posted:

This is complete nonsense lol, there was not 800 000 of the initial invasion force

Yes, yes, we know the drill, everything's an obvious psyop. But that wasn't the claim made. Modified for clarity:

HonorableTB posted:

Of some 800,000 Russian troops who were part of the initial invasion army or recruited since then for the war

That's a very high estimate, yes, but considerably less ludicrous.

The initial invasion force of 170 000 + 300 000 mobilized (though who knows really how many were really mobilized) would yield 470 000.

Slugworth posted:

I thought the commonly accepted casualty amount (so dead plus wounded) was a bit under 200k for Russia.

Perun just dropped a video that goes into the topic, executive summary: there are lots of estimates, most of them bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRboVa5zyUk

Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 11:39 on Mar 27, 2023

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

As fun as it is to Clancychat about killer drones descending on Putin's butt, this drone was probably spying on Russian training efforts at nearby military bases (red polygons). The pin marks the reported crash site.



There's lots to snoop on:
  • 147th Guards Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment
  • 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division
  • Kubinka air base
  • The training grounds where they organise the tank biathlons
  • an artillery range.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Tarquinn posted:

Why do we only see them (badly) fortifying the beaches? Are they that sure that an attack will come from that direction or are they convinced that their sad little plaster pyramids are insurmountable?
Resort town beaches are probably most accessible to the civilian population because they're right up to the streets. You'll probably be arrested for spying if you film trenches outside the cities.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Geisladisk posted:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1641308603855380481

Cockpit video from a Ukrainian SU-25. SFW.

That video is a lot scarier than it might look. The Radar Warning Receiver (little blinking christmas tree of lights in the top right) is initially telling the pilot "there is a radar out there that is probably looking for you", and then when he pitches up to fire, it immediately goes "oh poo poo oh gently caress something is locked onto you".

Also interesting that Ukraine is using their SU-25s to do these pitch-up dumbfire rocket volleys. I'd think the risk of that wouldn't justify the results.

Based on the number of rockets launched (5 per pod), I'm going to guess these are S-13 rockets.

Unless they've been upgraded with guidance, it seems a bit pointless to risk getting smoked by by SAMs for what amounts to harassing fire.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Rad Russian posted:

The "propagandist" that was blown up is a social media war blogger (just a popular one), not a state-sponsored propagandist on TV. He was recently criticizing the army for sucking and not being brutal enough, so he's on the far-right pro-war side of the spectrum of criticizing the army. Absolutely possible he was blown up by the Shoigu faction and not internal partisans. Partisans would probably go after state-TV propagandists if they actually had the means to blow up stuff without getting caught by FSB.

It's probably the FSB cleaning house. In Russia, any political activity, be it pro- or anti-war, must be controlled by siloviki or repressed. Fomin was a nobody, a bank robber who joined the DPR and rose in its ranks. His kind, mere peasant upstarts, are a danger to the security apparatus, unlike Girkin, who is a member of the new nobility.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Ups_rail posted:

the chadest and chad moves would be for russia to join nato

The USSR actually applied in the 50s. They were rejected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhLkwmSu98

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Toxic Mental posted:

lol wtf is that

Some caricature of a typical Russian war supporter, alone and drinking in his apartment?

I think that's supposed to be Medvedev, first toasting to Putin and joined by a ghost chorus of Soloviev, Skabaeva, someone I can't recognise, Simonyan and an unfamiliar face.

The ghost of Lenin also pops in for a visit.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."


Sounds like the Russian Volunteer Corps is at it again.

These guys aren't going to kickstart a revolution by shelling an minor border village and even less so by mining its cemetery (which is also a war crime, I'm pretty sure), so I think the smart move for Ukraine would be to disarm and disband the group.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Are they?

I mean thought they generally have done a good job over the years but they just screwed up on that report and then doubled down on it which is dumb.

To me it suggests they've got a leadership issue but that is just me guessing.

Have they always been half assed like this and I didn't notice or what?

Their Finnish section has at least drawn considerable ire because a well-known physicist who sits on their board of directors has repeatedly referred to the Donbas war as a civil war.

I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out there has been a concerted Russian campaign to insert corrosive personalities into western human rights NGOs, because discrediting them serves the Kremlin's objective to silence human rights activism at home.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Lammasu posted:

Why was Putin against EU cooperation? I don't really see how Ukrainians wanting more money effects him at all.

Putin has always presented himself as the only thing separating Russia from the rampant lawlessness of the 90s. It would be terrible for him if Ukraine demonstrated that East Slavic ex-Soviet states have other alternatives.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Alan Smithee posted:

putin drawing so many red lines he could make a carpet
Or a bicycle path.

Keep drawing, Vova
AI on Internet, 2021

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

steinrokkan posted:

Strangely no reduction in the overall combat effectiveness of the Russian army.

That being said, I'm not sure I buy the stories of Russian soldiers drowning to death, since that would imply mass death among civilians in the same area as well

Depends on where the fortifications were relative to civilian settlements. It's fairly plausible Russia had troops stationed near the banks to prevent Ukraine from sneaking troops over the Dnipro to raid the Russian rear. Those guys probably had the easiest time of all frontline troops, until their trenches and pillboxes started flooding.



The extent of civilian casualties and property damage will probably remain unknown until Ukraine liberates Kherson oblast, because they will be heavily concentrated on the Russian-controlled east side of the river. The western bank rises fairly steeply out of the river while the eastern bank is a low-lying floodplain.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

fatherboxx posted:

Truly a unique case in world history.
What then? There are no significant indendependence movements and no places with those colorful flags can self-sustain, every place that was able to secede already did so in 1991.

Barring of course Chechnya, but I guess you could cover that with "was able to."

Were a disintegration to happen, it would probably look a lot more like the South American wars of independence than the ethnostates in European imagination. Speaking of which, Russia had a hand in those wars, siding with Spain to sell them some warships:

Wikipedia posted:

The arrival of the Russian fleet in Cadiz in February 1818 was not to the liking of the Spanish navy, which was dissatisfied with the state of deterioration in which some supposedly new ships were found: between 1820 and 1823 all the Warships were scrapped as being useless. This fiasco put an end to the whole plan to reconquer the Rio de la Plata, which would end with the uprising of the Spanish Army in Cadiz (Trienio Liberal)

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

mobby_6kl posted:

Is this where the distant explosion was seen earlier? The post says it was a known ammo dump for 8 years, so that's weird that they didn't take it out earlier.
Months, not years.

Deepstatemap has a handy tool for estimating ranges.

E.g. HIMARS couldn't touch the ammo dump at Rykove.


Storm Shadow, on the other hand, could and did.


It also demonstrates why destroying the Kerch bridge from current positions is a tall order, even if Ukraine were to receive ATACMS rockets.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

SilvergunSuperman posted:

I don't believe I've heard liquidated used that way

How? It's specific meaning is hotly debated every single time someone posts Ukrainian casualty claims. One school of thought insists it means only KIA:

fatherboxx posted:

"Liquidated" means killed:

fatherboxx posted:

"Liquidated" was used internally by Soviet security services for targeted killings. Way later Russia started using it in media during Chechen campaigns because "liquidated militants" sounded tacticool and clean, in line with western war coverage newspeak ("insurgents", "surgical strikes", "collateral damage").

...While others contend the numbers match a high but reasonable upper bound for WIA+KIA.

I doubt we'll get the final verdict until the guns have gone silent.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Sashimi posted:

lmao Shoigu's a weeb

Dr. Quarex posted:

Accuse him of war crimes all you want but he IS Tuvan and that looks Tuvan enough for government work

Sashimi posted:

I'll take your word for it as someone who knows nothing about Tuvan architecture or culture.

A quick note on this, "traditional" Tuvan houses aren't really distinguishable from regular Russian houses, because prior to the Sayan gold rush in the 1880s, the Turkic Tuvan people were largely nomadic pastoralists and lived in yurts, which they called ög.

The few permanent structures built by Turco-Mongolian peoples before the arrival of the Russians were mainly Buddhist temples and monasteries, mostly patterned on Chinese and Tibetan traditions following the Mongol conquest of China and subsequent introduction of Buddhism to the Mongol empire.

There's really not much traditionally Tuvan in Shoigu's house. Most likely he's just a massive sinaboo.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Tigey posted:

I'm pretty sure Robotyne isn't a real place, sounds more like where an evil corporation makes ED-209s or something.

There's a reason for that. Робота ("robota") means "work" and роботник (robotnik) means "worker" in Ukrainian, much like robotník in Czech. It was from the Czech word the playwright Karel Čapek derived the word robot (roboti) for the androids in his play R.U.R. in 1921.

So the placename means "workerton" or somesuch and the name of the antagonist in Sonic the Hedgehog means "Dr. Worker" in most Slavic languages.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

HonorableTB posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676707829250502657?t=S7CwGNggi6_gryA6sOriag&s=19

- Breakthroughs around Bakhmut and Velyka Novosilka
- HIMARS o'clock at Makiivka AGAIN
- 36 artillery pieces destroyed in last 24 hours including 9 MLRS
- Three Shaheds were shot down
- A BM-21 Grad was destroyed
- Railway station at Yasynuvata was destroyed, an important logistics hub for RU
- RU clowning around in Sevastopol and causing traffic accidents
- Tokmak received some bavovna
- T-90S destroyed
- Local administration building in occupied Volnovakha destroyed by HIMARS
- 1 Scooby-Doo van liquidated

I'm a bit sceptical whether Yasynuvata is really a major hub. It's only 8 km from Avdiivka, so it's easily hit by a howitzer or even a heavy mortar. I suspect Ilovaisk and Debaltseve are the major logistics hubs in the Donbas.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Tiny Timbs posted:

what the gently caress is up with expats lol

why are so many of them like this

Cugel the Clever posted:

Lotsa folks who fled the USSR or 90s-era Russia who think that Putin brought greatness and stability back to Russia.

Shame they don't move back.

Often the homeland of a diaspora starts to exist in a nostalgic past only. You get this funny cognitive dissonance where you're a proud ______n and your old home country can do no wrong, but you wouldn't move back even if someone paid you.

According to local papers she's lived there for 20 years, judging by the name she's married to a German and she doesn't look old enough to have moved out of Russia on her own, so Russia probably exists to her only as the place where Gramma lives.

Lammasu posted:

What the gently caress do they serve in a Russian restaurant? Like what is Russian food?

Meat, potatoes, rye, butter, sour cream, dill, fish. It's pretty good, actually.

Our local Russian restaurants were subjected to a lot of harassment after the full-scale invasion started, but it seems to have stopped since the authorities asked people to knock it off.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Toxic Mental posted:

I need a reminder, why did Russia get blocked from the SWIFT system again

It makes international trade a lot harder for them and cuts wealthy Russians off from their bank accounts in Switzerland, London and Cyprus.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

RE: Railway Clancychat, there are a number of likely reasons why Ukraine isn't targeting railway infrastructure.

The first and most important is that Ukraine's objective is not to destroy Russia, it's to stop Russia from destroying Ukraine. The priority is thus not to make life maximally miserable for inhabitants of Russia, but to undermine Russia's ability and will to prosecute the war.

There are a number of reasons why using attack drones on Russian railway infrastructure isn't a good use of them.

First of all, Russia has a fairly dense railway network within range of Ukrainian attack drones.


Second, railway infrastructure is notoriously hard to destroy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agznZBiK_Bs

Given how small payloads the Ukrainian drones carry, they would barely dent a bridge or a railway.

If the objective is to disrupt the Russian war effort, it makes more sense to target militarily useful stores of chemical potential energy, like fuel and ammo depots, command and control centres, critical technological and manufacturing enablers and institutions that are tasked with rallying support for the war and suppressing dissent against the war.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

ChubbyChecker posted:

the last one was iran iraq war in the 80s

The Eritrean–Ethiopian war (1998–2000) was even more recent.

Wikipedia posted:

The widespread use of trench warfare by both sides resulted in comparisons of the conflict to the trench warfare of World War.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

mobby_6kl posted:

BTW is that the Ropucha that managed to escape the Tochka strike on a port early on in the war when another ship got obliterated?

Unfortunately it seems like it's already pretty close to port/shore but maybe it'll get promoted to sub anyway....

I don't think so, those were Caesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk, while the struck vessel has been initially identified as Olenegorskiy Gornyak.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Willo567 posted:

I did click on the link, and the map still looks like they haven't broken through yet. What are the red diamonds supposed to represent

They denote hostile units in NATO joint military symbology.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Doomer WaPo journo posted:

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.
---
U.S. officials said the Pentagon recommended multiple times that Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was Kyiv’s call to make given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield.
Maybe the article is leaving something out but this makes the Pentagon sound wildly out of touch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

The account TatarigamiUA posted a series of tweets (condensed here into a single page) that cast serious doubt on western analysts' proclamations that the Ukrainian assault has failed.

In a nutshell, many analysts focus on the tank ditches and dragons teeth visible from above. Based on that they declare that the assault has failed because it stalled before it even reached "the first" defensive line.

The issue is that based on shelling patterns, the tank ditches aren't really important. The fighting is from treeline to treeline, windbreak to windbreak, much like the battle of the hedgerows of Normandy in WWII.

Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 09:36 on Sep 1, 2023

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Sedgr posted:

Sure is quiet. Too quiet. Really gotta hand it to the Ukrainians on their information security. So tight lipped even the wins are under fog.

It's interesting to see how no news is interpreted. Doomers will tell you it's a sure sign the offensive has failed, Ukraine is completely exhausted and will have to sue for peace any day now, while optimists interpret it as a sign Ukraine will knock down the whole rotten thing known as the Russian military real soon.

Neither is of course true, but the increasingly despondent tone of the remaining voenkor 'grams does hint that Russian troops are taking a proper beating.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

the popes toes posted:

There's no federal statute against abandoning customers or refusing to provide services outside US jurisdiction so Justice would have no standing.

Does Musk still have security clearances for SpaceX? Revoking those would seem like an obvious step, seeing how he's openly collaborating with hostile powers.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."


I know perfectly well why Lula is inherently sceptical of any party the US supports, but drat if he isn't on the wrong side of history today.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

I never fail to be amazed by the sheer number of goons who don't get that understanding why someone thinks a certain way is not the same thing as agreeing with them.

poor waif posted:

imagine if a military power started a fake uprising by providing weapons, men and funding, only to later fully invade when you don't get everything you want.

I'm glad Brazil and anti-imperialistists have learned from history and would oppose it, not side with the invader and cry about why the target doesn't just unconditionally surrender like they're supposed to

Der Kyhe posted:

Nah, that is literally "US and west bad, Russia and China good" politics and Lula should be condemned for being a loyal little helper to the Putin's regime.

You don't have to like west, NATO, or US to hate Putin for his crimes against humanity and his attempted imperialistic land grab in Ukraine. And Lula is doing nothing of sorts, instead he says again and again that Putin gets a free pass in his mind, and Brazil is glad to work more trade deals with Russians.

LordArgh posted:

have you considered that countries can do things for reasons other than as a reaction to something the US did at some point in history

Yes, it's completely inconceivable that a "strident union organizer known for his bushy beard and Che Guevara T-shirts" that became president might let his foreign policy views be coloured by a US-backed brutal military dictatorship that took over when he was 19 and only ended when he was 40.

Molothecat posted:

as long as you have a reason to not arrest a war criminal, I guess it's ok

Also, clearly I'm agreeing with him, see:

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

drat if he isn't on the wrong side of history today.

As sad as it is, even a cursory look at any of the UN GA votes on the war in Ukraine clearly tells a story: this war is seen as Ukraine + NATO & Friends vs. Russia & Friends by much of the world.

A lot of countries are perfectly happy to sit on the fence and keep doing business with Russia, either because they hold a grudge against one or more of the countries backing Ukraine or because this war is happening so far away that it doesn't register.

Is it stupid, self-centred and a bit petty? Yes. Is it true? Also yes. Welcome to international relations.

Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Sep 10, 2023

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

RBA-Wintrow posted:

No joke, the Kilo class is planned to be succeeded by the Lada class.

If you look at a Lada logo, you'll notice it looks like a ship.


Ladas were known as Zhiguli in the Soviet Union after the mountains by the Volga, but it was too hard for non-russian speakers to pronounce.

They chose instead to call it Lad'ya, after the barge-like boat type used by the Rus for sailing the Russian river network.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Deltasquid posted:

This is full of bad takes but how the hell will Russia losing the Ukrainian war (sorry, the three-day SMO) lead to the loss of statehood and sovereignty of Russia? Does he seriously think NATO is going to occupy and divide Russia any day now, they’re just biding their time to pounce?

While this war isn't existential for Russia and Russians, it is existential for the ruling elite of Russia, because dragging a country into a pointless war and losing just highlights all the mismanagement and incompetence of the Russian state apparatus.

The Ruling elites' only hope is convincing the Russian populace that the current state of affairs is not their fault, but the result of a massive conspiracy against Russia and Russians.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703367359929401500#m
Could it have something to do with Serbia itself????? no it must be Ukraine that's wrong :dumb:

The commission reports on membership criteria are open for everyone to read, but it serves populists like Vučić better to pretend it's a game of favourites.

Looking at the reports, it's clear Serbia is way ahead of Ukraine, but still nowhere near ready.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

In tangentially related news, Azerbaijan has launched another offensive against the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which is backed by Armenia.

In recent history Azerbaijan has been backed by Turkey, while Armenia has been backed by Russia.

Al-Jazeera posted posted:

Armenia’s foreign ministry called on Russian peacekeeping troops in the region to intervene and stop what is said was Azerbaijan’s “full-scale aggression” against the local population.
---
Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of causing a months-long humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh after Baku last year blocked the sole road linking the mountainous region with Armenia. It is called the Lachin corridor, and Russian peacekeepers police it.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

the Onion posted:

Opinion is divided over whether to admit Ukraine to the intergovernmental military alliance NATO, with U.S. president Joe Biden leading those opposing Ukraine’s admission, to the reported frustration of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. The Onion looks at the pros and cons of Ukraine joining NATO.
PRO

Economic boost from $15 admission fee
Sends clear message that world won’t tolerate Russian expansion beyond most of Asia and Europe
Raytheon has no objections
Albania is already a member, so how is that fair?
Can stop pretending like we’re not currently at war with Russia

CON

Just bought T-shirt with current 31 members listed
Constant “will they, won’t they” tension adds much-needed spice to international diplomacy
Paperwork
Would be defending a fake country that’s essentially just south Russia
NATO group chat already too large and unwieldy as it is

___:yikes:
🧅:ussr:🧅

Ok, I can see what you mean.

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Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

A massive thread on all the western equipment that goes into manufacturing Russian weapons in one weapons plant.

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