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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee?
This poll is closed.
Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden 27 1.40%
Bernie "please don't die" Sanders 1017 52.69%
Cory "charter schools" Booker 12 0.62%
Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand 24 1.24%
Kamala "truancy queen" Harris 59 3.06%
Julian "who?" Castro 7 0.36%
Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard 25 1.30%
Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti 22 1.14%
Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown 21 1.09%
Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar 12 0.62%
Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth 48 2.49%
Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke 32 1.66%
Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren 284 14.72%
Tom "impeach please" Steyer 4 0.21%
Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg 9 0.47%
Joseph Stalin 287 14.87%
Howard "coffee republican" Schultz 10 0.52%
Jay "nobody cares about climate change :(" Inslee 13 0.67%
Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man 17 0.88%
Total: 1930 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

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VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

Peachfart posted:

Well, of course M4A is less popular when the Right attacks it, why is this surprising to anyone at all?

Because the prevailing narrative has been that socialist policies will still win over red voters because of economic materialism.

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LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Bernie should have quietly released his tax returns before he announced. Now his stalling has increased scrutiny and the bad narrative around him being a 1%er with multiple houses.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

Radish posted:

If you REALLY care about Sander's tax returns, you should think to yourself how are you any different than the people that were manipulated by our trash media into REALLY caring about Clinton's emails?

A standard Bernie attack was about Clinton hiding her speeches to moneyed interests. Bernie knew the power of creating an air of suspicion around a candidate, especially where money is concerned, and the Clinton camp's stubbornness and weak deflections only undermined her.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

MrFlibble posted:

weird though how they aren't obsessed with anyone elses though.

Bernie is being held to the same standard as Elizabeth Warren, who released her returns last August without complaint or equivocation.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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:siren:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1113463484312903683

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
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King of Solomon posted:

So you would prefer a debate stage entirely devoid of anti-imperialist voices?

I'd prefer a disavowal of the connection between "anti-imperialism" and "9/11 trutherism".

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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Terror Sweat posted:

What’s your stance on the guy wearing blackface then?

We could follow the lead of Virginia's African-American community, who did not want Northam to resign.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Bernie did a rally in Warren, MI 2 years ago at this same spot and I remember there being easily twice/3x times the number of people as this. And it was much colder then.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1117184658050035714

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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:siren:
Biden forced Obama's hand on gay marriage. He'll be able to use that when campaigning.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1117569854339526662?s=19

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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The electorate doesn't know or care who Neera Tanden is. Burning a news cycle on DC insider bullshit looks like a symptom of a campaign that is spending too much time fighting on Twitter.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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:siren:
https://twitter.com/rholdenon/status/1117935906877472775

Importantly, if people like this woman offhand tells her friends/family circle "I respect Bernie" that'll be a substantial amount of influence on the politically disinterested. Going on the town hall was a good idea and he did well.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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HootTheOwl posted:

Because in the last 100 years they haven't. At least not in America. In America Jews are basically white unless you need anything involving a calendar.

Jews in America face the highest levels of religion-based hate crimes.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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Bernie drops more than Biden in this poll:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1120673839489454081

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Fritz Coldcockin posted:

Jeb wasn't a 77-year-old man who couldn't keep his hands to himself, and he wasn't quite as verbal-gaffe prone as Biden.

Biden has already been through the grope news cycle and came out unscathed.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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crazy cloud posted:

Reliably, polls from the past few months have shown that Bernie has the most support from nonwhite voters of any of the primary candidates. What you're missing is observable reality.

Nope. Biden does. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-like-bernie-sanders-just-fine-they-just-might-like-other-candidates-more/

quote:

But the Democrat who is really popular with African Americans right now is former Vice President Joe Biden. In the recent Morning Consult polling, Biden was viewed favorably by 77 percent of black Democrats, with just 8 percent viewing him unfavorably. He’s the only potential candidate who had a better net favorable rating than Sanders with black respondents. Booker (45 favorable, 11 unfavorable) and Harris (48-13) are popular too, but a lot of respondents either don’t know who those two senators are or don’t know them well enough to have an opinion of them yet.

Morning Consult found Biden getting 40 percent of the vote among a national sample of about 2,900 black Democrats, with Sanders at 24 percent, Harris at 11 and Booker at 6. A Quinnipiac poll conducted from March 21-25 similarly found Biden with 44 percent support among black Democrats, with Sanders in second among the 2020 candidates at 17 percent.

In the Morning Consult data, Biden gets a bit more support among black voters than he does from the electorate overall. Harris and Booker overperform a bit with black voters too. Notably, while Sanders doesn’t overperform with black voters, he doesn’t underperform either.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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Clearly someone is buying what Biden has been saying.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1122823737815048193?s=19

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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:siren:
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Badger of Basra posted:

"She's a capitalist" is dumb when Bernie is too and just lies about it, but at least that makes sense

DSA endorsed Bernie so they have to hedge any support for Warren

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Biden has been building relationships with unions and black communities for years, where Bernie was essentially a local Vermont phenomenon until 2016. Purity tests only matter for a specific type of online Dems.

bowser posted:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1123207946945613825?s=19

The absolute worst possible takeaway from 2016. If Obama had lost either of his elections these idiots would be saying the same thing for people of color :ughh:.

This is basically what Bernie was imputing about Gillum and Abrams's losses.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1123200189265797120?s=20

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Developing a weird, fanatical fanbase seems to be part and parcel of winning a national election at this point, so Buttgieg is doing the right thing.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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The polls are interesting because they show that the electorate isn't particularly committed to Sanders' vision given the attrition from 2016. If we start seeing similar things in the Midwest...

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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March 6, 2019

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Pakled posted:

Biden is a gaffe-prone idiot but I worry that the last four years of TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP being all over the media has raised the standard for buffoonery to a point where none of the dumb poo poo he says/does registers with voters because Trump did something worse in very recent memory.

His plagiarism scandal looks positively quaint compared to Trump.

There's an awful lot of wishful thinking on display from the left about Biden's inevitable demise.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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It'd be interesting if Biden's popularity starts pulling candidates to the center, undoing some of the work of the last few years.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1124407471534149632?s=19


Biden also polling in the 40s in a Virginia poll.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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mcmagic posted:

Either way, Biden is completely out of touch with reality.

Like Trump proves, being out of touch with reality is fine as long as a winning chunk of the electorate is there with you.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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DaveWoo posted:

Sounds about right.

Biden and Clinton will be entirely different races. Clinton had the constant perception of being untrustworthy, inauthentic, and wonkishly distant that ways that Trump could attack. She had everything feeding into that, like an FBI sword of Damocles hanging over her head that fell in late October.

People keep attacking Biden's "gaffes" because he is specifically not polished, and he's already showing himself to not care much about policy nitpicks in the same way Clinton did.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Most Democrats want the party to be more moderate. Biden does have the space to consolidate a strong base of support.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Phi230 posted:

extremely hosed up that DnD comes out in support of sexual harassment and racial segregation in supporting Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/Essence/status/1123957856213131264

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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I'm not particularly convinced that Biden would do badly relative to the rest of the field. The 2018 wave was largely boring moderates being swept into office, not leftist firebrands. Michigan and Wisconsin elected quiet centrists to their governorships; Whitmer won extremely convincingly.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1125483458720038913

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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theblackw0lf posted:

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1126156734756786178

Of course anyone who would change positions because Bernie is in the race probably wasn't that serious about the left position to begin with.

Figured it was only a matter of time for candidates to migrate back to the center after a look at Biden's polling lead.

It'd be a cruel irony if Bernie entering the 2020 race only showed his inability to build a broad, winning coalition.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Radish posted:

We need to stop acting like everything is always the voters fault and the people in charge of everything are just blowing in the wind. When polled on what he believes most people are ignorant because that's been whitewashed during the entirety of Obama's presidency.

As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Majorian posted:

I, too, can't see how concerted opposition from the Dem leadership and megadonors may have played a role in this.:thunk:

Trump managed to overcome this without several years of lead time to sell voters on his candidacy.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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MAD hasn't been relevant for 30 years. Even when MAD TV was on.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1127192162293231616

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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This is interesting re: the claims about Biden's support being generational. Biden is competitive with Bernie for young black voters.

Which leaves me wondering what Bernie's actual core constituency is at this point?

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1127562615385935872

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Mellow Seas posted:

E: and “the safe choice”, Jesus Christ, I don’t know who that headline is quoting (paywalled), but it’s infuriating. How broken are boomer brains that they still think “the safe choice” is a winning strategy? Good Lord.

The Dem electorate in SC is majority black. Biden is leading with them.

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LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

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Most states are non-competitive in the 2020 general election. Everyone knows the rules, which is why Sanders has been campaigning regularly in South Carolina for years.

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