|
r u ready to WALK posted:so it only kills 2% of the people it infects? Bear in mind those numbers are coming from the PRC, who were denying that there was person to person transmission at all until yesterday. I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt.
|
#
¿
Jan 21, 2020 21:16
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 11, 2024 22:49 |
|
|
Play posted:that's like a moderately strong tropical storm striking the philipines-type death toll. wake me up when its "influenze during world war I" or "massive earthquake in the middle east" level It’s still early and there’s also no way in hell those are the real numbers.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 22, 2020 21:25
|
|
|
Following the Uighyr concentration camp story should show you how strong China’s denial game is.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 22, 2020 21:50
|
|
|
Coolguye posted:Thanks but I’m very intimately familiar with the CCP and China and you’re not really aware of what you’re talking about if you compare the Han heartland to the provinces the genocide is occurring in Point is I don’t trust anything that they say, considering how long they were denying person-to-person transmission. That was just an example of how much their state run media will spin bullshit about things that are clearly happening. Play posted:I know that, but I don't appreciate you responding to my joke as if it were serious. It makes me think that my joke wasn't good, which, while true, is extremely hurtful I got what you were going for, but what is the internet for if not for correcting people whenever possible?
|
|
#
¿
Jan 22, 2020 21:55
|
|
|
unpacked robinhood posted:I expected India to come up with the first really good virus The Ganges is basically the largest bio weapons lab in the world.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 22, 2020 23:51
|
|
|
The rat says squee posted:Wuhan Flu Ain't Nuttin ta gently caress Wit. This is wonderful.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 23, 2020 16:49
|
|
|
Play posted:I've fallen over before from a very strong fever. It effects your ability to balance and perceive things correctly. Obviously, that man should've been in a hospital bed not walking around on the street When I had pneumonia ten years ago I luckily was able to guide myself down instead of full-on face planting. Getting super sick can totally put you in that “puppet with its strings cut” mode.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 23, 2020 20:51
|
|
|
MarcusSA posted:https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1220476358826119168?s=20 A lot. The WHO had a bunch of positive stuff to say about traditional Chinese medicine last year. TCM is, at best, placebo. At worst, it’s straight up poison. Most of it isn’t even traditional, it’s a bunch of stuff that was made up in the 50s.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 24, 2020 00:58
|
|
|
Haramstufe Rot posted:The West has tried to kill this gay Earth with nuclear bombs, Trumps and climate change. Historically, it's China's turn.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 24, 2020 17:05
|
|
|
I’ve always thought it was so dumb that people go for Airborne’s “Designed by a teacher!” Ads. Teachers typically don’t know poo poo about immunology.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 24, 2020 23:11
|
|
|
Jamsta posted:Imperial College London estimates the current trans rate is 2.6 Influenza’s R0 is usually around 1.5, for comparison.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 25, 2020 13:21
|
|
|
Backweb posted:
The R0 is how many people you expect each sick person to infect.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 25, 2020 13:55
|
|
) Thanks.
|
MarcusSA posted:So the 1.5 means one person would infect 1.5 people. 2.6 is pretty high. 2.6 is insane. There’s higher ones out there but those typically have vaccines which reduces their in-reality R0.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 25, 2020 13:57
|
|
|
Holyshoot posted:did sars cause this kind of restriction or the bird flu? I don’t think SARS had a single city locked down like the dozen or so are right now.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 25, 2020 18:47
|
|
|
1st_Panzer_Div. posted:It's odd, but one of the few govt things he's good at is cdc quarantine. They've been taking this very, very seriously and trump is letting them do their thing so the disease doesn't hurt the market. Is the bar lowered to the point where “not actively loving with it” is now considered “is good at something”?
|
|
#
¿
Jan 25, 2020 19:46
|
|
|
hemale in pain posted:hi guys, i really want to catch this new and exciting virus. any tips? Start lickin’ doorknobs and subway handles.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 26, 2020 20:38
|
|
|
spacetoaster posted:I caught the swine flue overseas a decade ago and spent two weeks in a quarantine. I got the 2009 swine flu and the fact I was in obscenely good shape is the only thing that kept me out of the hospital. The flu itself wasnt bad, but that strain had a higher rate of post-flu pneumonia and I was one of the unlucky ones. I went from running eight miles a day and teaching martial arts to “winded trying to walk”. Ended up sick for two weeks and I lost twenty pounds. One of my friends saw me when it was done and said I looked like “skeletor after chemotherapy”.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 26, 2020 23:24
|
|
|
spacetoaster posted:When you started getting better was your appetite completely gone? Oh, for sure, it was a good chunk of a week before I was eating normally again.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 26, 2020 23:52
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:This seems suboptimal Some say "They can't confirm cases", others say "They will never reveal the Wuhan secret". Po-tay-to po-tah-to.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 00:34
|
|
|
SchrodingersCat posted:Yeah, SARS was interesting in that it caused both URI and LRI. This one goes straight for the lungs. The cytokine storm is one theory as to how the 1918 flu pandemic did what it did. The other is bacteria coming in to finish the job with secondary infections in the overcrowded hospitals. I think that one’s more likely, given how the 2009 flu ended up going. Lots of post flu pneumonias that were treatable with antibiotics, no crazy immune reactions. Both were H1N1 so you would expect them to behave kind of similarly.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 02:07
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:It is very deadly compared to other diseases that can spread without symptoms (flu's dead rate is 0.X%, yet still kills 5 digits people most years). The risk is a flu-like disease that is 30x as deadly, which at an individual level isn't much but as a population level is a huge deal. Or, something that keeps the same death rate of the flu but has twice the R0 value, where sheer numbers means that small death rate comes out to hundreds of thousands or millions instead of tens of thousands.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 15:27
|
|
|
Ebola was also a very rare disease with unpredictable flare ups that killed less than 2,000 people in 40 years. There weren’t even 10k cases before the 2014 outbreak, it wasn’t something where you could even properly test a vaccine since an outbreak would burn out so fast. There were way more factors to it than “rich white people are scared now”
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 16:03
|
|
|
Ebola had 2376 cases before the 2013 outbreak, with 1583 deaths. That’s why there wasn’t a vaccine for it. poo poo was incredibly rare until it managed to hit the right place at the right time and start spreading like wildfire.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 16:08
|
|
|
Gantolandon posted:The real danger with this virus is not that it's particularly lethal, it's that it seems just severe enough and infectious enough to overwhelm healthcare even in those countries where it's actually decent. Yeah, proper care on the ICU may be enough to let most people survive... but no city has enough ICUs to keep thousands of patients. Oddly, there were some lessons learned from the Vegas shooting that may end up saving lives here. That was an event that absolutely swarmed hospitals very quickly with critical patients, and they quickly decided to do things like stuff two patients on one ventilator and work out the math so that it could keep both alive.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 16:19
|
|
|
Outrail posted:That sounds crazy. How quickly can manufacturers go from order to hospital use with that sort of equipment. Weeks probably? That I don’t know off the top of my head. Hopefully the feds learned their lesson from Operation Dark Winter (the bioterror attack simulation they did in the early 2000’s) when they found out the american healthcare system has no surge capacity. There may, and if they actually did learn anything, should be a stock of ICU equipment in some undisclosed warehouse for exactly this kind of situation.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 17:08
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Was it here, the CSPAM thread, or some news article which talked about how most of our pharmaceutical manufacturing is based in China now and the feds have never recognized this as something that might be a bad idea. I though that was a good point 60 percent of the pharmaceuticals used in the US are made in the US, even after Puerto Rico got hit really badly with that hurricane.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 17:46
|
|
|
Private Cumshoe posted:How do we convince rich white people they're gonna get HIV, we should really have a vaccine by now HIV is a whole other can of worms because of how it mutates and also the way it fucks up your immune system. The fact no one’s immune system has fought it off is yet another hurdle. There’s pre-exposure prophylaxis now at least, which is a step in the right direction but obviously not as good as a vaccine.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 21:06
|
|
|
Spazzle posted:Some fraction of the population are mutants who are immune to hiv. That’s a weird genetic quirk of their immune system, and not something you can really make a vaccine out of. There’s a specific receptor that’s not on some cells and it means the virus can’t replicate properly. Vaccines require provoking an immune response. In these people their immune system doesn’t even really notice that HIV is there.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 28, 2020 21:13
|
|
|
coronavirus posted:your friends are in fact very dumb. EMT education also doesn’t include any immunolgy type stuff, and is mostly first aid, more severe trauma stuff, and “how to not have this person die right now”. There’s nothing about flu type stuff. Also, lots of EMTs are complete morons. Source:EMT for five+years.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 1, 2020 21:11
|
|
|
Outrail posted:What are the odds Chinese officials took a long hard look at their population structure, pollution levels, water availability and food production forecasts and decided to let it run its course? Or did they just bungle and underreport numbers because that's just the way things are done? This should be fairly enlightening. https://www.google.com/amp/s/aeon.co/amp/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-about-modernity
|
|
#
¿
Feb 4, 2020 15:51
|
|
|
13Pandora13 posted:It doesn't even have to be a natural disaster/catastrophic event, remember a few years ago when Atlanta got less then 2" of snow, but it was icy mix and GADOT didn't send out the ice trucks until after it was started and the whole city was functionally shut down for 48 hours? *Nobody* in the Atlanta area was prepared for that, kids were stranded at schools (including special needs kids) with inadequate food supplies (since cafeteria staff left after their end of day/before the poo poo hit the fan and nobody left knew WTF to do with industrial kitchen equipment), people couldn't get to hospitals, power lines downed by ice and accidents couldn't get fixed because trucks couldn't dispatch, and so on all because of an error in judgement as far as when to salt the loving roads and deciding to no close schools early. A disaster entirely of the state's own making and while Georgia certainly learned it's lesson you can drat well bet other states will make similarly boneheaded moves around other minor/handle-able issues. If you're not always a little bit prepared for fuckery it's hard to prepare for someone else's bad decisions at the last minute. That kind of thing can happen anywhere- I live in NY, and we’re equipped for bad winter weather. thanksgiving 2018 we got a snowstorm that was worse than expected. The plow trucks didn’t get out until it started, and it came on so quick that by the time that happened they were blocked off by car accidents and people were stuck in cars for 4-12 hours on roads and highways. The problem, which is applicable to the Wuhan Flu, is that even if you have enough poo poo to handle a disaster and plans to deal with it, is the disaster itself can stop you from getting to use either.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 5, 2020 00:19
|
|
|
Der Shovel posted:Not to argue, but generally out of a desire to know more and understand better: The R0 of this is not 1, it's somewhere in the 2.5+ range. This means that, typically, one sick person will get 2.5 or more other people sick. Those people will each get 2.5 more people sick, and so on. That means the "new cases" number should not be going up by a steady amount each day like it has been, the number of new cases should be getting much larger every day, as an exponential function- they're not even doing a good job of fudging the numbers. Blatantly fudging the numbers like that is more worrisome than just releasing a report that says "WE'RE hosed, BURY ME!" IMO.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 6, 2020 12:31
|
|
|
bob dobbs is dead posted:There are no good options, that’s why the death rate in wuhan is 10x the death rate in non overwhelmed places I’m interested to see how the death rate changes when it gets widespread somewhere where the air quality isn’t consistently “holy poo poo that’s a lot of pollution”. Wuhan consistently has terrible air quality, same with the rest of urban China.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 8, 2020 19:56
|
|
|
Tafferling posted:. Apparently China's numbers are complete horseshit. Wow, I’m so surprised that their obviously fabricated data was fake. Weren’t the numbers basically points picked off a premade line?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2020 21:14
|
|
|
Wow, NY is basically shutting down the town of new Rochelle and having the national guard make food deliveries.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 10, 2020 18:51
|
|
|
Hobo Clown posted:That's wild and not that far from me. Why just New Rochelle? Aren't there confirmed cases in NYC? This feels like shutting the barn door a week after the cows left. I think it’s like a test run to see how it works. It’s only a 1-mile radius and some large community places closing right now.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 10, 2020 19:49
|
|
|
GORDON posted:Re: lung fibrosis in that post above: That post was “look at this bullshit.” So much stuff in that email forward is false/woo-woo crap.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 10, 2020 20:02
|
|
|
DeadFatDuckFat posted:Man, if the county decides to call on me as an emergency worker I will ghost that poo poo harder than anything ever before Same. My old ambulance agency asked if I wanted to come back to cover some shifts since they just sent two people home for possible coronavirus and I was like “lol nope”.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2020 19:14
|
|
|
Facebook Aunt posted:As an endemic illness it might bump up annual flu deaths by an order of magnitude, but no one will care just like we don't care about the people who already die of flu every year.. I don’t think people would just shrug off 600+k deaths every flu season.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2020 20:13
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 11, 2024 22:49 |
|
|
pixaal posted:The number is only estimated that high due to exceeding hospital capacity. They said increase flu deaths by an order of magnitude every flu season. 60k x 10 is 600k. Though now that I’m not half-distracted by work I realize they probably just meant “bump it up a notch” instead of “by an actual order of magnitude”
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2020 20:21
|
|