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Flying internationally tomorrow. Europe to States. So I can't wait to be stuck an ocean away from my cat while the world wheezes to death. I was honestly hoping to age my way out of vulnerability of these flus. Basically if you're young you're hosed.
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Jan 21, 2020 21:29
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I really hope that's an accurate distribution of ages.
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Jan 25, 2020 18:39
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Hopper posted:And we have to 14 new cases in Germany. Probably thanks to that rear end in a top hat who went to a carnival thing with 300 guests despite having a fever. Yeah honestly I've had a low grade fever the past few days (after travelling) and got a cough just today. And it wasn't until like a few minutes ago when I read the symptoms that I was like 'oh hrm'. Luckily I've been basically quarantined since I got back. I didn't really think about it because I get fevers pretty easily and I hadn't slept well at all. If my cough is at all worse tomorrow I'm going to go get tested. I will 99.9998% be fine (35 y/o male, no smoking/heart disease/lung nonsense, clean air) but I'm really not looking forward to sitting in my apartment with my wife and toddler for two weeks. Honestly, once a world leader dies, and not even a major one, this mess is really going to be crazy.
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Feb 27, 2020 20:12
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Arsenic Lupin posted:The Pope is sick. Not necessarily coronavirus, but not necessarily not. I think a runny nose is not a symptom of the Coronavirus. It may even be contraindicative. That having been said, this virus sure is full of surprises!
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Feb 27, 2020 22:34
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Sten Freak posted:That Iran is under-reporting is no surprise but breaking down the statistics suggest they are possibly incredibly short of the real numbers. Hadlock posted:You're doing this article disservice, it's way worse than that this is something
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Mar 11, 2020 16:59
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Sten Freak posted:I literally didn't think anyone would believe me if I posted the numbers from that article. One of the things that this whole breakout has impressed upon me is that our brains are just not wired to understand the scale of exponential breakouts, especially coupled with the fact that, so far, a lot of it is happening 'over there'. Especially when there's a time and information delay between when a person gets the disease and when they have to get to the hospital. Like the time difference between 'hrm I have a fever today' and 'I need to get to the hospital' can a week, which can be the difference between 'whatever everything's fine' and 'there are no hospital beds in the country'. It's really hard to wrap my head around. It's sort of related but just based on my daily scan of facebook there is a very significant political gap in reactions. The people who I am certain vote conservatively are very much 'w/e more people die from flu every year. Have you noticed that this is an ELECTION YEAR seems fishy'. The others seem to be posting things like 'maybe we should take this seriously.' This could be confirmation bias though. One of my friends who thought that Kavanaugh did nothing wrong is currently on a cruise, for example.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:13
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I've definitely been holding out hope for some evidence that weather might mitigate all this. I mean, the fact that like Vietnam hasn't really exploded is kind of odd, although they got their first case in late January. At this point, just looking at the global distribution, it certainly feels like there's something to that hypothesis. And there are some things that make me slightly less pessimistic, like this report (although there is a lot of counter-evidence). And it took me like 6 read-throughs of the abstract of this thing and it makes it seem like warmer temperatures in cooler places makes it worse while higher temperatures in hot places makes it better:quote:Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID-19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the average, minimum and maximum temperatures in January. Then, restricted cubic spline function and generalized linear mixture model were used to analyze the relationships. Results There were in total 24,232 confirmed cases in China and 26 overseas countries. In total, 16,480 cases (68.01%) were from Hubei Province. The lgN rose as the average temperature went up to a peak of 8.72℃ and then slowly declined. The apexes of the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature were 6.70℃ and 12.42℃ respectively. The curves shared similar shapes. Under the circumstance of lower temperature, every 1℃ increase in average, minimum and maximum temperatures led to an increase of the cumulative number of cases by 0.83, 0.82 and 0.83 respectively. In the single-factor model of the higher-temperature group, every 1℃ increase in the minimum temperature led to a decrease of the cumulative number of cases by 0.86. Conclusion The study found that, to certain extent, temperature could significant change COVID-19 transmission, and there might be a best temperature for the viral transmission, which may partly explain why it first broke out in Wuhan. It is suggested that countries and regions with a lower temperature in the world adopt the strictest control measures to prevent future reversal. I mean, now that there are confirmed cases in tropical places, we'll know pretty soon whether or not it's a problem. And I'm looking at it again and like Spain isn't doing too well, and it's warmish, not tropical, though.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:45
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bollig posted:I've definitely been holding out hope for some evidence that weather might mitigate all this. I mean, the fact that like Vietnam hasn't really exploded is kind of odd, although they got their first case in late January. At this point, just looking at the global distribution, it certainly feels like there's something to that hypothesis. And there are some things that make me slightly less pessimistic, like this report (although there is a lot of counter-evidence). And it took me like 6 read-throughs of the abstract of this thing and it makes it seem like warmer temperatures in cooler places makes it worse while higher temperatures in hot places makes it better: Oh yeah and Singapore would be a pretty good counter-example to 'hot weather kills Covid'
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Mar 12, 2020 00:49
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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-51843128quote:A teenager was sent home from school after being caught selling shots of hand sanitiser to his fellow pupils at 50p a go.
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Mar 12, 2020 11:23
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Okay there is some credible evidence that temp and humidity do some real damage on it. Here's the paper. And the abstract: quote:This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
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Mar 13, 2020 15:59
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coolcoolcool here's a paper that suggests infants can transmit it: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa201/5766416 quote:A well 6-month-old infant with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had persistently positive nasopharyngeal swabs to day 16 of admission. This case highlights the difficulties in establishing the true incidence of COVID-19 as asymptomatic individuals can excrete the virus. These patients may play important roles in human-to-human transmission in the community. I will admit to having a deep morbid fascination with this virus.
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Mar 13, 2020 16:11
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Yeah I have pursueded my wife to go on lockdown. We have a kid in daycare and I am not sending him in. Basically my plan is to just wait 5 days and then only get in contact with people who have also been quarantined for that amount of time, basically getting ahead of the ineveitable lockdown. She can work from home and I am looking for a new computer toucher job.
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Mar 15, 2020 00:57
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Switzerland is sort of botching this. The Federal government had a press conference and shut businesses and stuff. And have really tried to emphasize "stay home" but are in no way enforcing it. The total number of cases is unknown because they rely on the cantons to report. There are like 3 different official tallies. It is astounding how many old people are out and about. This country certainly has a "meh I'll be fine attitude" which otherwise gives confidence but couple with "well I've got to live my life" means just a slow reaction to this thing.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:51
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Disgusting Coward posted:Isn't Switzerland like, a few rich people, a few nerds colliding their large hardons and a few suicide clinic workers? How the gently caress can the government not successfully quarantine a population of 25 people? It is mostly busy-body old ladies who would rather burn the country to the ground if they can't go to the market. It is very much a 'but muh freedoms' country. For example, multiple people I know have posted videos of Italy and Spain and said something to the effect of 'how can you call yourself a free country if this happens'. Warthog posted:It's really loving confusing... how can it be so hard to see what's happening across the border when Yeah I had no idea how loving behind zürich was/is
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Mar 18, 2020 09:18
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https://mobile.twitter.com/FoxMulder22791/status/1240454056419696641 Collective funeral in Bergamo
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Mar 19, 2020 22:32
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I have contacted my representatives at every level to let them know that while mitigation measures might slow things down, that scaled testing and containment is the only way we will get through this without significant loss of human life and an overwhelming economic downturn.
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Mar 20, 2020 13:36
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I think Switzerland, in general, is quite close to being past the point of no return, 43 total deaths today, something like 4900 total positive. Luckily I live in Bern, one of the few Cantons that seems to be taking it seriously, they're finishing up a drive/walk through testing center that sounds like it will be able to 4k tests a day. Bern and Basel-Land of all the goddamn places are the only ones who are seriously saying 'test test test'. There are still too many old people out and about. I haven't been to a big grocery in a while, but apparently they're limiting the number of people who can go in and are making you sanitize your hands before going in. The only thing that's been consistently out-of-stock in my corner store is canned tomatoes.
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Mar 20, 2020 20:12
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Helios Grime posted:So if you want to know which country you need to look at after you get bored with Italy. oof
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Mar 20, 2020 22:11
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Hopper posted:Italy's health system is overwhelmed, they are triaging and this means people die because they don't have enough ventilators. People are also isolating at home for a while and I asked that means many cases that pop up are severe ones that were mild cases at home and then had to go into hospitals. So the issue in Italy is somewhat interesting. Northern Italy loves selling its fine goods, like leather and clothes and poo poo. But it's only really good if it has "Italian made" on it. And for that, well it needs to be made in Italy. So what Italy has done is imported Chinese workers to do the manufacturing, specifically from Wuhan.
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Mar 21, 2020 21:55
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mrfart posted:Source? Yeah working on it. I read it on a friend's phone.
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Mar 21, 2020 23:48
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Someone had asked for a source re: Italian goods and Wuhan workers. The original article was Reuters but this covers it too: https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-price-of-luxury/ Sorry for the American Spectator.
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Mar 22, 2020 13:11
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lol jesus btw, I have found exercising to be quite helpful in these trying times. It is quite possible to get strong and relatively conditioned at home. Reddit's https://reddit.com/r/bodyweightfitness is probably one of the best resources on the internet. Cardio? Just do 100 burpees, time yourself, and try to beat that time.
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Mar 22, 2020 20:21
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:It'll be a cold day in hell before I even do a single burpee. k
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Mar 22, 2020 20:59
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someone I went to high school with has been on a cruise since ~5 March, haven't seen a post on Facebook since then ...
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Mar 26, 2020 00:26
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I set up a quarantine zone in a bathroom near our front door. And I'm following this dude's advice (I can't remember if I found it here, but it's worth reposting): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps as far as cleaning is concerned for perishables or poo poo we need immediately
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Mar 27, 2020 14:52
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Part of the stress of this has just been keeping up with like what are the adequate protections the average citizen should take to protect himself and the greater good. It's dizzying.
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Mar 28, 2020 22:20
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d0s posted:he's talking about things like these: what happens if you sneeze in this, does it blast off of your face or does it work out, i've always wondered
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Mar 29, 2020 17:03
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A bit late to the comorbidity-chat from earlier but one of my friends is a nurse at a hospital in a city where now they have it under control, they were never swamped or anything. They still had roni-patients. He said that basically all the people who were intubated were obese. Anecdotal, but w'/e.
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Apr 17, 2020 21:41
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biracial bear for uncut posted:As someone that has to do this because they are "essential", don't do this. I've literally seen more road deaths since January this year than I have seen total in the last twenty years I've been commuting to work (and one particularly nightmare-inducing pedestrian death at 5AM). This is so crazy.
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Apr 22, 2020 18:58
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NihilismNow posted:Metrics by insurance companies say accidents here are down 50%. I think someone posted earlier, and I believe it, that while the accidents go down, the accidents that do happen are way more deadly. This is a pretty known tradeoff wrt road safety, you are more risky the safer you feel.
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Apr 22, 2020 18:59
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Just went and got an antibody test. I'm already ~85% sure that I had it back in February, I had a bad fever for 4-5 days, headache, cough, felt exhausted and had 0 appetite (literally only ingested Gatorade for that time, tried eating ramen and just nope, it was really weird) and I had flown internationally (from Seattle) like a week or so before. I also was a little short of breath for two or three weeks after that from time to time. But I'll know in ~48 hours whether or not I had it. If I test positive on the first test they send it to a lab where they triple check that I had it. I forget to ask like who made the tests, but I'll ask when I get my results.
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May 15, 2020 12:01
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bollig posted:Just went and got an antibody test. I'm already ~85% sure that I had it back in February, I had a bad fever for 4-5 days, headache, cough, felt exhausted and had 0 appetite (literally only ingested Gatorade for that time, tried eating ramen and just nope, it was really weird) and I had flown internationally (from Seattle) like a week or so before. I also was a little short of breath for two or three weeks after that from time to time. tested negative
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May 19, 2020 10:52
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Whoops, hope you hadn't been making plans to get out and do stuff in the assumption that you had antibodies Lol no. Wasn't even that cautiously optimistic.
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May 19, 2020 13:13
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Rexxed posted:You probably had Influenza B; I had it in January and it was pretty much as you described symptom wise. It was the bad flu of the year and a lot of people probably mistook it for covid 19 if they caught it later on. Just looked it up and this makes the most sense. Thanks.
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May 20, 2020 09:04
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Here in Switzerland things are borderline back to normal and seem to be stabilizing. Hair salons, etc, have been open for 3ish weeks now and schools are back in session and there seems to be no noticeable uptick in active cases. This is also with the amount of people wearing masks being basically a rounding error, except in certain situations (hair salons, poo poo like that). I think the Swiss people took it quite seriously thanks to a competent federal authority alongside quality cantonal oversight, a lot of individuals saying #stayhome, the police nudging people in the right direction and basically the infrastructure to handle basically everybody deciding to ride their bikes. The Police were never really arresting people, they broke up the ineveitable protest a couple of times before being proactive and just started preventing them from assembling. For example loving everyone wants to go down to Ticino/Italy for Easter, the Federal government basically said over and over again 'Please I know you want to Ticino for Easter but please don't". And while they didn't prevent people from driving down there, they would pull you over and basically shame you into turning around. In addition, the Swiss version of the PPP was an absolute knockout. Basically you just filled out a form and you had the money a few days later. Not without controversy, but they were also quite open about saying 'yup there's going to be fraud, but in the end it will cost them so much money, it's not worth it'. Basically my takeaway is that if you suck it up like a grownup for a little while, you can get the number of active cases down to a negligible number, and with contact tracing, social distancing and an absence of mass gatherings I think you can keep it together during the summer months. To be fair, I think Switzerland got quite lucky in that Ticino and Italy got hit really hard early which meant people took it more seriously than if it had happened in Portugal/Spain, if that makes sense. This weekend we had a social distancing BBQ with another family, which I was really dreading because the husband, normally just a lame wet blanket, has definitely gone down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole. It wasn't as bad as it could be, but he definitely worked his opinion in wherever he could. My wife works in journalism and he was like 'so do you guys tell both sides of the story?' to which she replied 'yes, that's our job' (in more words than that), which he seemed to accept. He also was bragging about all the places he had gone out to eat and stuff and I just shrugged it off, which was my strategy in general.
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May 26, 2020 09:47
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Helios Grime posted:I'm in Bern and you notice people are just really tired of being inside. I'm interested on covid-19 rates in a week since we just had a long bank holiday with really nice and warm weather and everyone was out and about which forced some of the main outside attractions to close down. Same and I personally thought that their decision to close down a lot of green space, at least during the day, was quite short sighted, even at the time. Although I could imagine that people were gathering there at night, but still in general it seemed like people were quite good about keeping apart when out and about, and closing them down just meant that it pushed people closer together. There have been several times, Easter for example, when I"ve kind of held my breath to see if there's an uptick or anything but it doesn't seem to be the case. This could be a big one though. A lot of people traveled.
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May 26, 2020 10:09
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Alan Smithee posted:What do the Swiss cook at bbqs The Swiss as a people love nothing more than grilling and they are terrible at it. A lot of the green space is pockmarked because people just set up disposable grills and blacken the poo poo out of their thick skinned sausages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cervelat. They also like to start it from scratch, meaning they collect sticks or scrap wood. Many people do this on their balconies.
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May 26, 2020 10:14
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I had to explain that you eat fresh salsa with chips once or twice. Whenever my wife makes 7-layer bean dip it's a borderline Copernican revolution. There is a restaurant in town that sells tacos and they want $25 FOR 3 TACOS. I'll stop ripping on the Swiss and their milquetoast palate now. WRT hairdressers, I had to cut my 2y/o's hair which, except for a couple strays, I think I did quite well.
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May 26, 2020 13:12
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greazeball posted:
I think their strategy of opening up incrementally every two weeks was a really good strategy, to see the effects. WRT grilling, if you are grilling in public you can 100% expect someone to come up and ask if they can just put their stuff on your grill an dthey'll just kind of show up every 5 minutes to flip it. It is odd at first but efficient, quite efficient indeed. I could go on for days about the Swiss national psyche but I think what is important to know is that they basically have been in a very safe place for a very long time, which has afforded them the ability to build a system that allows the development of extraordinary competence, but often only in context. It's sort of like having just the best playground in the world. If you want to learn how to be a hairdresser, you will learn everything you need. If you want to be a cashier, you can (and must) get an internship to prepare you for this. If you want to trade currencies, you will have the best education. You then couple this with a lean Federal system and a strong social safety net (despite quite low taxes, especially in certain cantons) you get a feeling that you'll be fine no matter what. And while it has created a country that has responded extraordinarily well to the virus (from most infections per capita out of 'real' countries to basically fine now, also the economy is going to churn along just fine imo, certainly by relative standards and possibly even by absolute standards) you will get situations like my friend observed where in Australia a bike rental store had to refuse service to some Swiss people who thought they could bike across the country. No idea about either of those, but the Bigote Verde delivers, which is what I was referring to. Funny that there are a lot of Bern goons. Very goony city, imo.
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May 27, 2020 14:24
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Man basically everything is opening up in Switzerland next weekend, even nightclubs.
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May 27, 2020 14:56
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