NFL N/V Offseason: Sorry folks, I counted him out

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > NFL N/V Offseason: Sorry folks, I counted him out

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Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Also we wondered why Flores was fired after two successful seasons. Well the owner wanted him to lose!

Flores tried to Major League this season, but the team stopped responding to having a piece of clothing taken off the cutout Ross after each win.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2022 23:30

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# ¿ May 19, 2024 20:17

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

DariusLikewise posted:

https://twitter.com/aroundthenfl/status/1489740426772815874?s=21

Wow sounds like the retirement of Dick Cass is going to leave a massive hole in the Ravens organization

Dick Cass might have left a little bit of a mess

# ¿ Feb 5, 2022 06:21

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Henrik Zetterberg posted:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33238563/police-report-video-evidence-supports-allegations-new-orleans-saints-rb-alvin-kamara

gently caress Kamara

# ¿ Feb 7, 2022 23:47

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

https://twitter.com/KimboSIime/status/1491471120498929675

# ¿ Feb 9, 2022 20:18

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Was Payne the puncher or punchee

He was the punchee. Payne put his finger to Allen's head, probably because he saw thoughts like this running around.

Also Allen deleted the tweet lol

# ¿ Feb 9, 2022 21:14

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Maggot Soup posted:

So Super Bowl 6am? (West Coast)

Haha no way. They would run the show at whatever ungodly hour in the country it's hosted at so it would be on during prime time in America

# ¿ Feb 10, 2022 19:25

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Freeney was a dominant pass rusher and will make the hall, but probably not on the first ballot.

# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 03:20

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Grittybeard posted:

Setting aside other beefs with that last drive this throw was legit something.

e: well crap I can't link it for some reason, the intermediate throw to Kupp over the middle before any possible things you might want to complain about happened.

https://twitter.com/J_Kaley/status/1493064523451973634

there we go

Holy poo poo, that's legitimately a no look pass. He's looking right to pull the linebacker that way then throwing to the middle where he just made the linebacker vacate.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 05:44

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Suspending a guy for a year for legal betting when he's not even with the team and the league is filled with ads from betting sites is really loving stupid.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2022 23:37

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Beat or sexually assault women and eh, maybe you'll get suspended a few games, maybe you won't.

Bet on NFL games when you're not even with the team? Full season suspension!

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 02:21

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Yeah I think that's an okay deal for the Hawks so long as they clean out everyone else, too.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2022 00:02

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Silly Burrito posted:

To be fair, what notable QB in the last 20 years has remained with his drafted team lately all the way to retirement?

Aaron Rodgers
Ben Rothelisberger
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
um I'm sure there are more um

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, all had new teams. Joe Montana, traded. Even Eli Manning was traded technically on draft day.

Andrew Luck!

:smith:

# ¿ Mar 9, 2022 00:58

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Grittybeard posted:

That is hilariously dumb by Washington but the Colts are right now down to Sam Ehlinger at QB right? Looking it up I guess they have someone called James Morgan out of FIU that I don't know anything about.

I mean it's a long offseason and they'll find someone, or at least be motivated to look since they ought to be a good team. But when you significantly downgrade by trading Carson Wentz away in a bad QB draft that can't be a good feeling.

Colts saved cap room by moving Wentz. Their starting QB probably isn't on the roster now, yeah. But they were done with Wentz and getting anything of value for him and saving cap room was the goal.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2022 20:05

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Yeah, nobody's saying that the Colts ultimately won anything with the Wentz deal. It's just that they managed to get something back for him at all which is impressive.

I don't think they go after Jimmy G, but really everything is probably on the table as far as QB goes.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2022 20:20

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

mcmagic posted:

What a disaster for the colts in literally every aspect.

No, if they cut him and got nothing that's a disaster. Getting someone to take his entire salary and give them picks is an okay salvage.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2022 21:15

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

lol I got autoblocked for that Schefter tweet too after asking how much the NFL pays him to be their PR person

# ¿ Mar 12, 2022 00:27

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Whoever the Colts get is gonna be a roll of the dice so it's just a matter of how much they give up to get the person and making sure they have a backup plan.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2022 19:43

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

I hope this last season is completely embarrassing for him

# ¿ Mar 14, 2022 00:20

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

SKULL.GIF posted:

What happens with Matt Ryan if the Falcons do get Watson?

Colts would love to have him

# ¿ Mar 15, 2022 17:44

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

I'd take Baker on the Colts. Let's make it happen.

# ¿ Mar 16, 2022 04:00

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

It's pretty funny ESPN is paying that much for Buck and Aikman and a lot of weeks will have the Manningcast actively taking viewers from them.

# ¿ Mar 16, 2022 17:43

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

If I'm the Colts and Carr isn't available, I definitely go for Baker.

# ¿ Mar 16, 2022 18:38

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Nodoze posted:

I imagine if the Falcons trade for Watson they are doing a separate deal to move Ryan and then flip whatever they get to the Texans for Watson + some draft picks.

Matt Ryan looks like the perfect Colts QB right now, except they literally don't have poo poo to trade back lol

Colts still have draft capital, but it would have to be with a team that's fine with a 2023 first round pick. The Falcons would be pretty likely to take that, I think.

# ¿ Mar 16, 2022 19:16

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

It's stupid that we don't have Tirico consistently calling premier games.

He's a sex pest so I'm good if he never does

# ¿ Mar 17, 2022 02:51

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

At this point the Colts should just go for Matt Ryan.

# ¿ Mar 17, 2022 19:44

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

It's about to get scary in Cleveland

# ¿ Mar 18, 2022 20:49

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

A little over 10 million for each woman he sexually assaulted

# ¿ Mar 18, 2022 20:52

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

I want Baker on the Colts.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2022 21:11

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

fartknocker posted:

Cleveland Clowns

# ¿ Mar 18, 2022 21:33

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

ShakeZula posted:

I expect the Colts are looking to next year's draft for their potential long-term franchise QB. Maybe the stars will align and they'll be able to have Ryan for a couple of years to be a bridge. If he decides to retire after a year like Phillip then just sign the worst FA you can think of and recreate Suck for Luck.

Yeah, at least Ryan will have a couple years and the Colts can see about getting a future QB next year, or just start to tank for Arch Manning when Ryan's done.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2022 20:52

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

All I remember is his disgusting act!

# ¿ Mar 23, 2022 15:18

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Haha gently caress the Browns and Watson

# ¿ Mar 24, 2022 18:19

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

All these people are such pieces of poo poo

# ¿ Mar 25, 2022 18:34

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Who's the random nerd that wandered into the picture in the first row?

# ¿ Mar 28, 2022 17:10

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Diva Cupcake posted:

They probably already confirmed it in one form or another but the whole "Irsay demanded Wentz off the team" probably had legs.
https://twitter.com/zkeefer/status/1508869465081102347

Irsay generally likes everyone so it's pretty easy to tell when he doesn't. It was super easy to tell that he did not like Wentz at all.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 19:59

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

ShakeZula posted:

I really think the root of it was the vaccination issue. Irsay obviously told Wentz he wanted him to be a leader in the locker room and get vaccinated, and Wentz flatly refused. To Irsay, this meant Wentz was choosing his questionable beliefs even at the risk of not being available for the team, and for Irsay that's inexcusable.

Eh, Darius Leonard also didn't get vaccinated. Along with Nelson. I think it's just that Wentz is insufferable

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 20:16

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Nelson didn't have a great season last year, but he was also playing injured and then got covid. Probably dumb to expect that he won't bounce back though.

# ¿ Mar 30, 2022 21:07

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Kalli posted:

I was gonna post FO's QBase projections, but it's on ESPN+ and lmao at the idea of someone realizing they're still subscribed to that.

I'm pretty sure I have that just because of the Disney+ bundle coming with ESPN+ that I never use.

# ¿ Apr 12, 2022 17:46

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

quote:

No quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft has emerged as the clear No. 1 -- unlike Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence in previous drafts. And according to Football Outsiders' QBASE 2.0 model, there is statistically no significant difference among the top-five rated quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft.

The model predicts that this year's class is more likely to disappear into obscurity than walk into the Hall of Fame. After all, for every class of 1983, there are years that don't yield any starters (see 2017 and 2013).

Scouts Inc. doesn't project any of this year's quarterbacks highly, which is perhaps why there has been so much action this offseason via trades. The Washington Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, the Denver Broncos for Russell Wilson, the Cleveland Browns for Deshaun Watson and the Indianapolis Colts for Matt Ryan. Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield may also be traded before the 2022 season kicks off.

Yet some teams could still enter the draft desperate for a quarterback; the Steelers, Falcons and Panthers come to mind. Given the extensive discussion in Brian Billick's book "The Q-Factor," we know that drafting a quarterback out of need can lead to red flags being ignored and, say, EJ Manuel becoming a franchise's first-round pick. This year's model should serve as a warning for any general manager thinking of drafting a first-round quarterback out of desperation.

QBASE 2.0 combines Andrew Healy's original QBASE model (2015) with Rosen and Olbrecht's functional mobility model (2018) by factoring in a quarterback's rushing ability while also using his adjusted college passing statistics and adjusted years started. The adjustments consider the quality of both the quarterback's teammates and opponents, and while they reward quarterbacks who have steadily improved over time, they penalize one-year wonders.

Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 is replacement level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. Read more about this methodology here.

Here are our projections for the 2022 quarterback class:

1. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22

Mean projection: 0.00 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A): 49.7%
Adequate starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A): 26.2%
Upper tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A): 16.0%
Elite (>1.5 TDYAR/A): 8.1%

Pickett showed significant improvement last season, displaying better pocket movement and above-average arm strength. In addition, while he lacks Malik Willis's playmaking ability, he has pro-style experience and makes good decisions in general (though many of his throws came off quick reads).

Ultimately, he is more of your typical pocket passer, albeit with some rushing ability, and this better balance is reflected in his lower "bust" rate than Willis. Notwithstanding, the model projects him to be a rather risky pick for a team looking for a franchise quarterback.

2. Matt Corral, Ole Miss

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 34

Mean projection: minus-0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust: 51.0%
Adequate starter: 25.7%
Upper tier: 15.6%
Elite: 7.7%

Scouts view Corral as a relatively fit but slender quarterback who has exhibited the ability to make good throws while anticipating his receivers coming open. In addition, he threw for more than 8,200 yards in college, won the Conerly Trophy in 2021 and was a two-time Manning Award finalist and two-time Davey Award semifinalist. However, Ole Miss' run-pass option offense didn't often require him to make more than quick, relatively simple reads.

As a result, the big question mark is how he will adjust to the significantly more complex NFL game. Our projections are aligned with this hesitancy, but they also give him 23% chance of developing into an upper tier or better starter.

His career trajectory is likely to be determined by the type of situation he is drafted into: Will he fall into the arms of a spread-friendly team?

3. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 36

Mean projection: minus-0.22 TDYAR/A
Bust: 58.9%
Adequate starter: 23.1%
Upper tier: 12.7%
Elite: 5.4%

Ridder was a four-year starter at Cincinnati with dual-threat ability, which are both factors positively correlated with NFL success. However, his completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt declined last year, which hurts his projection.

In addition, scouts have concerns about his accuracy and ball placement. Seen by some scouts as a weaker version of Marcus Mariota or Alex Smith, Ridder enters the draft with a middling projection.

4. Malik Willis, Liberty

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 21

Mean projection: minus-0.26 TDYAR/A
Bust: 59.9%
Adequate starter: 23.0%
Upper tier: 12.2%
Elite: 4.9%

Willis originally played for Auburn but lost the starting job as an incoming junior to true freshman Bo Nix. After transferring to Liberty, however, he displayed excellent physical tools and vaulted up draft boards. Despite displaying the arm strength and mobility required to play at the next level, he has been inconsistent at anticipating receivers coming open and at following progressions, which can result in him breaking the pocket and scrambling too quickly.

Many view him as having the highest upside of this year's class because of his arm talent. But his QBASE 2.0 projection shows the inherent risk that he will not be able to function in the NFL as a pass-first quarterback (though if he plays early on, the offense can be adjusted to highlight his mobility and big-play ability). In the end, he is in line with the other quarterbacks we evaluate: most likely unimpressive but with the potential to exceed expectations.

That said, part of his relatively low projection is due to his Scouts Inc. ranking; if the rumors of him going second overall to the Detroit Lions are true, his projection would jump to 0.28 TDYAR/A.

5. Sam Howell, North Carolina

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 50

Mean projection: minus-0.27 TDYAR/A
Bust: 59.9%
Adequate starter: 23.2%
Upper tier: 12.0%
Elite: 5.0%

A three-year starter at North Carolina, Howell helped his QBASE 2.0 projection by improving his rushing game significantly last season (his rushing yards per attempt increased from 1.6 to 4.5).

However, he also hurt his projection by regressing as a passer (his completion percentage decreased from 68.1 to 62.5). This is why our model still projects him as a relatively risky pick in comparison to the rest of our sample. An interesting question is whether NFL teams will be nervous about North Carolina quarterbacks after what happened with Mitch Trubisky.
6. Carson Strong, Nevada

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 93

Mean projection: minus-1.67 TDYAR/A
Bust: 93.9%
Adequate starter: 4.8%
Upper tier: 1.1%
Elite: 0.2%

Since the functional mobility model debuted in 2018, NFL teams have increasingly used a college quarterback's rushing ability as a key factor in evaluations. To be clear, pure rushing ability doesn't dictate success by itself, since each quarterback must also have the requisite accuracy, arm strength and intangibles to succeed in the NFL.

However, Strong is a clear demonstration of how QBASE 2.0 will grade a quarterback who put up minus-4.1 rushing yards per attempt in his last college season. This lack of mobility means that he has a very high chance of being a bust.

Is it possible that he could be successful as a classic pocket passer in the right situation? Sure, but it's not likely.

Conclusion

Will a quarterback be a high draft pick this year? Most likely yes, given that need and desperation have historically clouded teams' judgment. And hitting on a quarterback is so important that teams are understandably willing to take bigger risks than with other positions.

But the warning signs this year are strong, with our model projecting that none of these quarterbacks will perform significantly above replacement value. In turn, these low projections mean that our model is less predictive than usual about the order in which these quarterbacks will be drafted, especially considering a team could fall in love with one of them as the New York Giants did with Daniel Jones.

Ultimately, the story of this year's QBASE 2.0 is buyer beware.

That being said, each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15-25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter. Which means that collectively, there is a very good chance one of these quarterbacks outperforms our projections.

Specifically, there's a 28% chance that at least one of them becomes an elite starter and a 68% chance that at least one becomes an upper-tier starter. We just aren't willing to bet on any of them to be the one.

# ¿ Apr 12, 2022 17:57

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# ¿ May 19, 2024 20:17

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

Also, it's a golf match.

https://twitter.com/TomBrady/status/1516098267855138820

God can you imagine how bad the small talk must be between all those guys?

# ¿ Apr 18, 2022 18:09

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > NFL N/V Offseason: Sorry folks, I counted him out

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