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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

The mood with Russian journalists I follow is that this is a “cool story”.

"Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings.

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Just wait until the workers go on break and then blow the bridge up.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

The bridge repair tech who is a few missed salaries away from getting his home foreclosed on him is not going to take a moral stance on being offered to repair a bridge, that’s not really how real life works. Also, I would appreciate if you can refrain from using your alternative definitions of what counts as a civilian, or moralistic characterisation of words left unsaid, as far as your posting career in D&D is concerned.

Do we even know the composition of the Russian bridge repair crews? Are they government guys, military, private contractors? Not that it changes my opinion that Ukraine should knock down that stupid bridge in the way that kills the least amount of people.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

A civilian ship performing a military task under orders from the military leadership in an occupied area is not really a civilian ship.

So sink it at a time when there's as few casualties as possible. This isn't that loving trolley problem.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
My uninformed gut instinct is that this was a joint operation involving Ukraine and some bunch of ethnic/regional dissidents in Russia who were more than happy to cooperate.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

steinrokkan posted:

Shouldn't Ukraine have some Soviet Shilkas lying around? Those seen like they are an ideal match against crappy drones.

Hell, wouldn't something even more old fashioned like, say, a 20mm Oerlikon AA gun work too?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Paladinus posted:

They still seem to be better trained and equipped than regular Russian soldiers.

That's a pretty goddamned low bar, given what we've seen being handed out to the mobiks.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Ynglaur posted:

Yes, you're correct. The author's premise is that the BTG is vulnerable due to its task organization. For example, it really only has one command post; US battalions have two. The BTG has very little organic maintenance or vehicle recovery assets, so stringing it out along a long line of supply makes it vulnerable. BTGs carry little organic supply. Theoretically a Russian brigade or regiment would have these assets, but doctrinally they sit further to the rear. That makes more sense if you assume the front is only 10-12 km deep from the forward line of contact, and in fact can help you protect those assets. What we're seeing in Ukraine, though, is that assets are under threat of indirect fire 50km or more from the forward line of contact. So now the BTGs 1) have fewer support assets immediately available; and 2) they're no more protected than if they were more available.

Also, Russian brigades simply don't have the same logistics and support capabilities a US BCT does. Russian BTGs are fundamentally brittle; they can throw down a lot of combat power, but are one bad artillery strike away from running around without any command assets, or without any mechanics. They have all of this artillery and EW assets, but can't coordinate them easily with maneuver formations outside of that BTG.

IIRC they're also extremely light on supporting infantry, which means they're vulnerable to the sort of ATGM ambush tactics the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be masters of.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Pook Good Mook posted:

I love how Russians live in a visibly decaying corrupt failure of a country and then assume everyone else should be grateful to get their help.

It very strongly reminds me of an old joke about the entertainment industry:

Hedda Hopper posted:

I liked this one about a man who’d been taking care of elephants in a circus 25 years. He fed, bedded them down, did everything, then the number of elephants was doubled. After a month of this he was in a state of exhaustion. His wife said to him, "Why not give it up and get another job that’s easier." He screamed, "What! And leave show business?"

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OddObserver posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1590846401675919360

Nice write from a Qazaq-American sociologist, a bit more subtle than my usual "Russians be racist against Ukrainians" line, but not really disagreeing in substance.

Highlighting a small portion:
https://mobile.twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1590846415932358665

In case you don't want to read the rest of this guy's thread on the dying birdsite, a brief precis is that Russia still believes in its own special version of "The White Man's Burden".

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

That's one hell of a salient they're making themselves in the northwest there.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Yeah, Russia's just decided they can dragoon foreigners into their military now.

https://twitter.com/MrbamNews/status/1592165273280430083

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Flappy Bert posted:

Not that anything is deserved, but I’m a bit curious what a nuclear engineering student was serving a 9 year sentence for.

Probably drugs while being African.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Paladinus posted:

Not what it means at all. At least for now.

Glad to hear that, actually.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
My worthless prediction is that the most that will happen is that NATO will be basing more SAM batteries in Eastern Poland that might accidentally shoot down Russian missiles in Western Ukraine, and also NATO giving Ukraine more fancy gizmos.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

It's a similar sort of unfamiliarity with a foreign system that leads many westerners to naïvely wonder why don't the oligarchs just remove Putin or Xi, given that they're obviously bad for business?

The difference is, in the west, the rich control the state. In Russia and China, the state controls the rich.

A similar dynamic exists with regards to popular movements.

In the west, the people control the state. In Russia and China, the state controls the people.

The Kremlin sees no difference between Ukraine and Russia, so if they aren't doing the Kremlin's bidding, they must be controlled by someone else.

It's a problem called "mirror imaging" in strategic studies. We (we as humans, not us ITT specifically) tend to imagine our opponents as thinking and behaving in mostly the same way that we do despite this being very obviously not true. An example being the various commentators who said there was no way Russia would attack Ukraine because they didn't have the resources to win such a conflict.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cr0y posted:

Using the conflict in Ukraine as a stress test on United States manufacturing isn't really a good test. The primary reason for that being in a hypothetical future conflict where the United States is directly involved we are not going to be relying on artillery/etc because step one is going to be overwhelming air superiority.

I don't think anyone really predicted that this war was going to turn into a battle of artillery shells? Granted the AA expendables is much more understandable.

Problem is in a future NATO-wide conflict the US is going to have act as an arsenal and munitions plant not just for its own armed forces but for other NATO militaries as well. The Ukraine conflict might not be a good stress test, but it's likely the only one we'll get.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Herstory Begins Now posted:

tbf he recommended nuclear war against basically everything, that was pretty much his thing

It was a lot of peoples' thing in the early '50s.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Moon Slayer posted:

Least surprising Time person of the year probably in my lifetime, that's for sure.

Also the first one in decades that doesn't feel forced or stupid or pandering.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Kchama posted:

I'd be pretty shocked if there are many non-military folk on a military airbase. This wasn't a random civilian airport, but the military airbase that they've been launching missiles from at Ukraine's civilians.

If any place was a valid target to hit, it'd be Engels-2.

I can't speak for Russian airbases but there's always civilians living and working at American ones. You have family members/dependents of military personnel, civilian contractors employed at on-base shops and restaurants, other contractors working on aircraft or whatever, and others.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Kchama posted:

As far as I know it's not nearly as much of a thing on Russian bases.

But there still wouldn't be that many, especially not hanging out with the pilots in their barracks.

My point about it being a very valid place to hit still holds either way.

Well, yeah, I agree totally it's a valid target. Hopefully it was pilots or aircraft ground crew that got got, not the janitorial staff.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

lmao I wonder why they didn't make one for Truss/Rishi (it's totally understandable, Bozo did help Ukraine, but lol)

Support for Ukraine the only thing BoJo ever got right in his life that didn't involve nepotism.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OctaMurk posted:

why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo

Because it's marginally cheaper to outsource that poo poo and besides, it's not as if there'll ever be a real war in Europe again, right?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
If the target was tough enough the Brits would wheel out these motherfuckers which were the same caliber as those on the Queen Elizabeth class dreadnoughts, which were the pride of His Majesty's fleet.


"I say, Brigadier, I'm in awe at the size of this lad. Absolute unit."

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Jan 14, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Basically if a front line becomes static long enough it becomes a playground for really, really heavy artillery. Because if you can't shift the front using the guns you have right now, a bigger gun might just do the job.

And I'm not sure what level of irony this is on, but Ukraine could probably get a lot of use out of a modern Heavy Gustav if they had one.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 07:05 on Jan 14, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Mederlock posted:

If the Germans are really held up by a lack of commitment of American tanks, before they'll give the blessing for the transfer of Leopard II's, what's the viability of throwing together an upgrade package on what's left of the M60 stock, pick up a bunch from the nations that the USA sold them to, and pushing those forward as an alternative to providing Abrams

I'm not sure there is much if anything left of the M60 stock. Most of them were, last time I checked, dumped into the Gulf of Mexico for artificial reefs. Plus they've been out of US service for 30 years at this point so even if we had enough of them you'd have to call in a bunch of long-retired graybeards to instruct Ukrainians. It might actually be easier to get the DOD to cough up old M1s.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Jan 19, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

ZombieLenin posted:

Being a person who works in civil service I consider it to be incredibly dubious that any Western government does not already know exactly both how many MBTs are in the national inventory and exactly how many of those are in an operable state.

I'm a historian who works with government archives and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they have piss poor records. I know at least one major military branch that doesn't have a complete catalog of their own archival material.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

EasilyConfused posted:

As an archivist, I'm amazed to hear that anyone claims to have a complete catalog of their own archival material.

Yeah but almost all archives I've gone to have at least a skeletal catalog you can consult. This archive said "lol no :shrug:". There's a filing system of sorts but it's staff use only and I have no idea if there's an actual register.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

There is a really interesting Perun vid that sort've goes into this subject offhandedly but its through talking about Poland's current and future weapons procurement instead:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrbaAKZfjwg

As near as I can tell Poland got piiiiiissed off at being booted out of the MGCS program back in early 2020. They decided to go their own way with help from S. Korea which might lead to S. Korean MIC getting a foothold in the EU and this causing the companies and nations in on that program to worry about future MGCS sales. Which I guess they thought would be to a essentially captive EU market...but not anymore.

The projected in service date of the MGCS is 2035 according to the Wikipedia page, which also features repeated use of the term "glacial pace" regarding development.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Johnny Nomad posted:

The US has been constantly making brand new Abrams since the 80s at the Joint Systems Manufacturing Center, which used to be the Lima Army Tank Plant in Ohio. They make 10-12 a month. The army doesn't want or need them, but the government doesn't want to shut the plant down.

One of the reasons the government has insisted on keeping Lima open is because once you close down the facility you lose the institutional of knowledge and experience necessary in building those tanks, and it would take shitloads of time and effort (and money) to restart production should, let's say, you ever need to suddenly provide M1s en masse to a not-quite-allied country being invaded by Russia.

There's probably quite a few smug congresscritters who voted to keep that plant open today.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Knightsoul posted:

Those are just lies...plain and simple.
Ukraine was declared the 4th most corrupt nation on Earth, according to U.N. classification and just before the special operation started by the Russian Federation.
To add on that, just look at all the military hardware (gently offered by the foolish western nations) smuggled from Ukraine to terrorists based in Africa or the corruption scandal few days ago admitted by the comedian actor Zelensky.
So anyone who tries to picture Ukraine as a pristine democracy is just lyin' to you, like this guy Mylovanov, and you should laugh at his face.

Brother can you spare a citation for any of this?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Fritz the Horse posted:

fatherboxx has graciously agreed to IK this thread. Feel free to offer them your condolences. We may (hopefully) yet find a second IK.

Tossing back a vodka in respect of our poor IK.

"Будем здоровы!"

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Feb 1, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Does fatherboxx know he's an IK? It'd be bleakly thread-appropriate if he woke up and found himself with mod buttons.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
The one with the buttons probates! When the one with the buttons gets banned, the one behind him takes the buttons and probates!

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Fritz the Horse posted:

I'm gonna be the fun police and suggest we not go overboard riffing on fatherboxx the IK, thanks.

Fair. We have to conserve our riffs until Scholtz agrees to supply more.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
So how many SAM launchers are the Secret Service going to incompetently leave behind in Kyiv when Air Force One departs?

EDIT: I am being informed that Biden may have taken a train from Poland. :doh:

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Feb 20, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Brown Moses posted:

Navalny came out with a 15 point political platform, which includes recognising Ukraine’s 1991 borders (including Crimea), and reparations for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1627632098608644099

Hope he takes it easy on drinking tea after this.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

khwarezm posted:

Its pretty odd the way that these articles don't really give much weight to the notion that in the event that the West was creating some kind of Wile E. Coyote Acme trap to goad the Russians into invading Ukraine so they can drop an anvil on them, the surest way for the Russians to avoid such a dastardly plan is to... simply not invade.

But then maybe this is why I'm not in charge of the most powerful countries on Earth.

There's a strange "leftist" school of thought that states only America truly has agency in world politics and every other government essentially only ever reacts to American stimulus. It's not phrased this way but that's what, when you strip away all the cruft and phraseology and caveats, they're actually saying. The arguments you're talking about come from this school of thought.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

While I'm not sure who Zeihan is, the most bullish claims even Ukrainian leadership is producing peak at 1:7 (Danilov, which means it's virtually guaranteed to be bullshit).

He's basically a random talking head with no claim to special knowledge of the Ukraine war.

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Atreiden posted:

WTF would they be used for other than that, when we're talking things like air defense.

There's quite a few uses for weapons in what are called "measures short of war". UN peacekeeping missions or protecting emergency relief forces are the ones that come most easily to mind. It's still an absolutely blockheaded statement by the Swiss president.

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