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This is an all-encompassing thread about an active war, including the gruesome facets of it. Reader discretion is advised. The previous thread can be found here, should you have the need for it. Welcome to the current events thread for the Russo-Ukrainian war. The purpose of this thread is to help each other stay up to date with what's going on in the war, adding nuance where it's practical, or where Twitter is busy slinging buckets of piss at each other. Based on precedent, this thread has quite a few rules of its own, listed later in this post, and you're expected to read the rules before you post. While you're at it, please also bookmark https://www.deepl.com/translator – this works better for Russian and Ukrainian than the Google Translate does. THE STORY SO FAR ==============================  It's not possible to cleanly summarize it, so I'll take a coward's way out and (kind-of) skip writing an editorial of my own. Instead, here's a chronology of links I'd expect even a casual observer to be acquainted with. For starters – https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895 is an interactive time-lapse of Russian control over Ukrainian territory. Before February 24, 2022:
SUPPORT UKRAINE ==============================  Want to help Ukraine? Visit our donation drive thread.CommieGIR posted:Potential Gangtag by goon Loden Taylor USEFUL RESOURCES ============================== Maps:
THREAD-SPECIFIC RULES ============================== This thread is considered a spinoff from the main Eastern Europe thread, which is still the thread to go for other topics about Eastern Europe, and Russia/Ukraine topics not related to the war. In addition to the general SA and D&D rules, which you should also take your time to review, this thread has quite a few rules of its own. If you are opposed to following them, my advice to you is that you simply avoid posting here. Instead, consider airing your grievances in the next quarterly D&D feedback thread. The rules below are an abridged version of the precedent accumulated throughout the previous thread, the OP of which you can check for more context on the individual rules.
By far the most common cause for accidents here is the way embedded Twitter posts will include not just the post you linked explicitly, but also the preceding post in that Twitter thread, if any. In general, things on the page you link will also make you liable, with the notable exceptions of messages that weren't in the Twitter thread, Telegram channel, or a news live blog as of the time of your post. Only the contributions from the primary author(s), not random comments or replies, are considered, of course. That said, please do not ritualistically try to ward off the enforcement of thread rules with “uh, this account may post gore” – just make sure that whatever you specifically post is free of that, or tagged properly. For the rules themselves, assume that a hypothetical lurker is a naive (innocent) person with autoplay on for all videos, and does not pay much attention to the text, in absence of  or  emojis. Moreover, that they would be ready to click exactly once inside your post, and scroll around for a minute or two. In other words, the point of tagging rules is to avoid creating shock content situations in the thread, as if the titular content warning wasn't there. Tagging requirements apply only to visual footage from Ukraine and Russian/Belarus provinces directly involved in the war, and “visible” refers to specific targets being identifiable, e.g., “the crew of that tank was incinerated”. Specifically, you must tag, and explain why you're tagging something, the following:
For the avoidance of doubt, violent imagery is tolerated here only inasmuch as it offers clear newsworthiness, novelty, or educational value for a would-be conversation. Exceptionally graphic content, as well sharing any violent imagery in a bloodthirsty connotation, in mods' and admins' subjective view, will be punished with a ban and a 30-day probation on the first offence. ACTIVE  ES============================== Please note that for all charity toxxes admins will set the charity. Silver2195 posted:It will end by "Friday," i.e., within 18 months. Silver2195 posted:Yes. The war will end (or at least be "re-frozen") before November 10, 2023. Keisari posted:It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure. TWITTER SUPPLEMENT ============================== Assume on all remaining links in the post, as I cannot guess when exactly you'll open them.Twitter accounts for Russo-Ukrainian war. This is just a compilation of accounts I'm aware of, rather than a recommendation to read all of this, or some kind of “allowed sources” reference for the thread. My general suggestions are to use common sense:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar Master list on Russian economy: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1506669435612016645 OSINT accounts: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical https://twitter.com/RALee85 https://twitter.com/bellingcat https://twitter.com/UAWeapons https://twitter.com/girkingirkin https://twitter.com/wartranslated https://twitter.com/COUPSURE Foreign commentators: https://twitter.com/faridaily_ https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7 https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman https://twitter.com/yarotrof https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk https://twitter.com/francis_scarr https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki https://twitter.com/maxseddon https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer https://twitter.com/kromark https://twitter.com/MarkHertling https://twitter.com/christogrozev https://twitter.com/maryilyushina https://twitter.com/CITeam_en https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture https://twitter.com/LawDavF Ukrainian commentators: https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova https://twitter.com/olex_scherba https://twitter.com/lapatina_ https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk Various (near-)public accounts: https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba https://twitter.com/DaveKeating https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine https://twitter.com/DanLamothe https://twitter.com/ukraine https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA https://twitter.com/armees_gouv https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov https://twitter.com/JackDetsch https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko Accounts I explicitly recommend to mute on Twitter: @CanadianUkrain1 ← a scammer writing fiction. @EuromaidanPR ← poorly sourced sensationalism. @TpyxaNews ← poorly sourced sensationalism. @TrentTelenko ← “I'm an epidemiology specialist now” equivalent of the war. @jmvasquez1974 ← a questionable war fighter or war tourist. @kamilkazani ← a weird person with weird takes. @nexta_tv ← poorly sourced sensationalism. @samramani2 ← previously an MVP account, he's stopped doing attribution of sources. @sumlenny ← a facetious individual with a tenuous background. @thedeaddistrict ← a generally unremarkable account, but a lot of their posts are in long threads inconsistently mixing regular posts with utter gore, making them remarkably risky to post here on an autopilot. Edit 1 on Oct 12: Added Perun, Nielsen, Freedman to links. Tightened up and clarified the language in some parts. Edit 2 on Oct 26: Clarified that the rule against bloviating about tankies still applies to DSA and so on. Edit 3 on Nov 02: Added a “posting about Ukraine threads” thread rule. Edit 4 on Mar 20: Added a clarification to thread rules about posting footage.Edit 5 on Mar 26: Updated the list of posters under sanctions. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Mar 31, 2023 |
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Oct 11, 2022 20:32
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You’re welcome to continue it.
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Mar 31, 2023 |
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Oct 11, 2022 20:46
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Tesseraction posted:Crimea is another part that I would have thought of (ironically) a bridge too far, but them crippling the Russian supply line from the Kerch Strait means it's actually becoming very possible. Doubly so if they can keep the Azov sea clear and launch naval support from the western mainland... You mean of their military navy? Nothing major, with ships being built elsewhere for replacement, as far as I can tell - like the corvette in a Turkish wharf, linked above. William Bear posted:Is there anything new in this G7 statement from today? I see the position is that peace will involve reconstruction through seized Russian funds, and a commitment to trying Russians for war crimes. Not that I can tell, besides including recent facts about mobilisation, NordStream. Rappaport posted:Finland and Russia have the same rail gauge (roughly), but those links getting severed for whatever reason wouldn't be super-impactful. Same for the Baltics.
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Oct 11, 2022 21:24
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spankmeister posted:I do believe the Baltic countries have their energy grids connected to Russia, but they're working on severing those links. It’s a bit more technical than that. Baltics did stop using Russian electricity half a year ago, but the networks themselves are connected to BRELL, and the network synchronisation (“current frequency”) is maintained within the context of the BRELL, rather than that of the national grids, the Baltic meta-grid, or the Nordpool (which is the sole electricity source for the time being). For Latvia specifically, the scheduled disconnection from BRELL is set for 2025, but we anticipate Russia possibly disconnecting us by force, and supposedly have the capacity to withstand that to some extent.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:03
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Mr. Apollo posted:Business Insider is reporting that Musk spoke with Putin before posting those polls. However. Musk denies he spoke directly with Putin. The mood with Russian journalists I follow is that this is a “cool story”.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:04
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Jihad Joe posted:I was excited to see what the previous thread had done to get locked. I am Jack's sense of disappointment I had the OP mostly ready and just wanted to wait until page 2023 to reboot it and clean things up, since I’m creatively bankrupt about coming up with a new title.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:07
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:"Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings. As in an improbable thing that totally happened.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:18
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Alchenar posted:Disgusting absence of https://twitter.com/LawDavF on the twitter recommendation list MegaZeroX posted:I would like adding Perun there, who has probably some of the best YouTube commentary it is, IMO. Atreiden posted:Can second Perun for weekly good long videos mainly about the war in Ukraine Added as I recognise all of those, despite still haven’t watched a single video of Perun.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:21
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Sekenr posted:Perun is god of thunder is slavic pagan pantheon, is it the same thing in Baltic mythology? Sure is, Pērkons in Latvia and Perkūnas in Lithuania, both words literally meaning “thunder” in our modern vocabulary. Estonians have similar, Pikker, but their mythology generally speaking is a bit detached from Latvia and Lithuania.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:33
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Moon Slayer posted:Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS. I’d prefer Russia to gently caress off much sooner, but I’d also prefer a lot of other things that have limited indications of their immediacy.
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Oct 12, 2022 00:02
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https://twitter.com/dawid_92pl/status/1579974038092677121
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Oct 12, 2022 00:23
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HonorableTB posted:BTW, the previous thread has been moved to the Goodmine, thanks to Cinci for doing that! It will now be preserved as well as be readable to unregistered users, for the sake of historical preservation and records (since SA is being archived by the Library of Congress). You can find the Goodmined old thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516 They did. We had an internal conversation at the time, and the decision was that D&D's preferred toxx redemption story is a charitable donation and admitting that you're wrong. nurmie posted:welp, i do feel like i need a break from All This anyway tbh nurmie posted:Seconding the paypal/bank details request. Can't promise much, but hopefully it'll be enough to cover the fuel costs at least. nurmie posted:Donated a little something a bit earlier, please feel free to redistribute/pass on to refugees as you see fit if it's not needed anymore to cover food/gas.
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Oct 12, 2022 01:42
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1579883965879848960 Much of this has been mentioned already in the thread, but the piece does tie it all into a cogent narrative. Small White Dragon posted:What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left. A lot of it is in exile, but publications that stay niche and avoid speaking of Putin or his favourites directly can make by locally as well. For those who stayed, a major issue is keeping the lights on, as the financial channels they can access are restricted and closely monitored. Edit: Someone did ask for forecasts on the economic impact of the mobilisation a couple of days ago. https://twitter.com/abarbashin/status/1579874299405832192 https://ridl.io/the-partial-mobilisation-of-russian-smes/ cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 04:33
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Saladman posted:I was surprised that the Baltics were not more directly affected. I thought they were getting like the vast majority of their gas from Russia? E: Also NL is surprising, since they produce a lot of gas and didn't import much from Russia, so I'm not really sure on how The Economist is calculating these metrics. Lithuania has already built and opened for business an LNG terminal that has enough capacity to supply 100% of the gas consumption of the Baltics in “real time”, although we need extra capacity to be able to float Finland as well, if necessary. Latvia, Estonia, and Finland all have their own LNG terminal construction project going on, I believe. Well, the Latvian is definitely there, if behind schedule as every other public work here. Furthermore, Lithuania did finish building and has opened for business a gas pipeline to Poland.
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Oct 12, 2022 12:39
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Somaen posted:The Baltics, which have been telling Europeans for years that Russia uses energy as a weapon, used the last decade to build alternatives, an LNG terminal in Lithuania, the shale industry in Estonia and a gas connector LT-PL Checking the actual dates now, out of curiosity: Klaipeda LNG terminal - 2014 Estonia-Finland pipeline - 2019 Lithuania-Poland pipeline - 2022 Hamina LNG terminal - late 2022, looks on schedule Inkoo LNG terminal - January 2023, looks on schedule Paldiski LNG terminal - 2023 Skulte LNG terminal - 2024 There’s also a shelved Tallinn LNG terminal plan. In general, something like Klaipeda+Inkoo should be able to supply all we need, but looking at the way things are going, I think both Estonia and Latvia will finish their own terminals. Latvian, if anything, should be much cheaper to operate than the others, since we can build one relatively nearby to our existing gas storage facility. Also I’m not sure what’s exactly up with Hamina, seems to be a toy terminal with capacity of 1/16th of Klaipeda?
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Oct 12, 2022 13:03
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Europe is rich enough it will displace other lng buyers. commodity markets aren't first come first served. It’s already doing that. https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-scoops-up-lng-choking-off-power-supplies-in-poorer-nations-11657212688 Tuna-Fish posted:IIRC It's sized to supply all local demand in the eastern part of the country where there is a direct connection to Russia and no pipe connected to the rest of the country. Ah, makes sense. System Metternich posted:Re: die Tschechei, that's not the full picture. It used to be called "Tschechien" in German for the longest term as referring to the Czech-speaking areas of Bohemia and Moravia. "Die Tschechei" only started to get used when Czechoslovakia was formed, in parallel to "die Slowakei" (which is still in use btw). Due to many Czechs associating it with the Nazi regime (especially the term "Rest-Tschechei" after the Sudeten German areas got annexed in 1938) there was a concerted push to revert to "Tschechien" during the last couple decades which also was mostly successful. In the framing of Landschaften, die Ukraine is the preferred form basically, from the perspective of their preferred etymology for the word “Ukraine”. Also I’m surprised to hear about a push away from Tschechei, when in English they’ve pushed aggressively to go to Czechia, from Czech Republic. As for Patriarch Kirill, he seems to have returned to regular duties yesterday, but I’ve not seen any fresh photos of him to confirm that.
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Oct 12, 2022 13:43
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Tomn posted:I'm kinda curious how many of the footsoldiers there are mentally nodding along and going "Yes, that's right, that is indeed the true face of the enemy!" and how many are going "Man, why do we gotta sit through another pointless and boring political speech?" I’d say the majority is the latter, since playing tropes about satanists doesn’t really work with largely irreligious millennials/zoomers, and people are more than smart enough to filter obvious bullshit otherwise too, on average. The challenge of dealing with the consequences of Russian propaganda dominating an information environment is not that it’s particularly good at convincing people by crafting exquisite misleading messaging. Instead, the problem is that if let run its due course, it blots out credible information with contradictory messaging of apparent low quality. That has the audience basically withdraw from seeking out information their own, and in the end you’re looking at a reconciliation equation along the lines of “I can’t trust any of this poo poo, but surely the guys who make sure I have running water don’t have it out for me”. This is why I’m fairly hawkish on blatant Russian propaganda being posted in this thread, in contrast to the western or Ukrainian propaganda. The operating mechanism of the latter is to add to the information spaces messages that further their goals, which you can parse for useful kernels, paying sufficient attention, whereas the mechanism of the latter is to degrade or destroy the information space around them until they’re the apparent least bad option available. By design, a traditional Soviet/Russian propaganda firehose is going to be hot chocolate at high velocity, with little-to-nothing of value to be read even between the lines.
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Oct 12, 2022 14:16
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https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/1580192286348279809 https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1580011095573827585 KonvexKonkav posted:Die USA sind kein richtiges Land. Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Angeguckt, wo Du postest -- weiss Bescheid, Danke, werde nicht nochmal drauf reagieren. Schreiben Sie hier bitte auf Englisch.
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Oct 12, 2022 15:28
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While I remain sceptical of the 90k number, given the history of veracity of “leaked true casualties” from Russia, I wonder how large is the AWOL/deserters group.
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Oct 12, 2022 16:08
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FishBulbia posted:Weren't they already blocking starlink in occupied parts of Ukraine? The reporting on that is conflicting, and more on the side of it not working in specific instances, rather than as a general geofencing policy. Tomn posted:That being said, I'm not sure if it's just the video being really zoomed out or something, but those trenches look really really straight? I’m definitely not a trenching expert, but to my eye it looks like the actual trenches weren’t shown all that much, and we mostly saw the ditches that are supposed to slow down advancing vehicles.
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Oct 12, 2022 17:14
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Saladman posted:Diplomacy? He made a tweet and may have talked with Putin, although I'm super skeptical of that report. Why would Putin even want to talk with Musk, to try and convince him to shut down Starlink in exchange for... giving Germany gas for Tesla's plant? I would assume Putin gets enough bullshit talks with Macron to not want more talks with someone completely bonkers. There were reports from Ukrainian troops that their Starlink kits weren’t working in the ongoing counteroffensive areas, but it doesn’t look systemic to me.
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Oct 12, 2022 18:20
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Tomn posted:So is the US paying for Musk to provide Russians in Crimea with Starlink access? I’m not really sure what Ukraine loses and Russia gains from this. I’m really confused by this question.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:08
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BonHair posted:That's assuming they ever thought they would be defending those lines though. From what I've seen, they never expected to seriously lose the eastern parts of Ukraine, much less actual attacks into Russia. Saratoga is right, there are heavy standoff fortifications on the lines connecting Kramatorsk with Donetsk and Luhansk cities. The only feasibly “easy” military attack on them is through northern Luhansk oblast’, which is where the trench digging video is from. Tomn posted:Well, the OP is complaining that Musk shouldn’t be allowed to unilaterally disable Starlink access across Crimea because the US is paying for it. But my understanding is that the US is paying for Starlink access to benefit Ukrainian civilians who’ve had their Internet access bombed out, or Ukrainian military operating in places where traditional Internet access is either limited or again bombed out. Neither of these factors really apply to Crimea, so which customers exactly are getting affected by the stoppage, and does the US or Ukrainian government really care? This and a few earlier posts conflate 2 separate conversations. 1) Ukrainian troops in counteroffensive areas of the current frontline have complained about spotty Starlink connectivity - https://www.ft.com/content/9a7b922b-2435-4ac7-acdb-0ec9a6dc8397 2) Musk has reportedly denied an Ukrainian request to enable Starlink connectivity in Crimea - https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10
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Oct 12, 2022 19:56
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Tomn posted:Oh, I hadn’t realized it was a Ukrainian government request- that does put a different spin on thing. Though I do note the only source is apparently “Ian Bremmer said Musk told him”? Not that I’m putting it past Musk to try and act like he’s the protagonist of a RPG forging the only path towards the True Ending, but it is a little he said she said right now. I agree with you here. The “Musk spoke to Putin” thing is also from here, and I’m inclined to sit the story out until it’s further corroborated by a distant enough third party. Rigel posted:You really should. Perun is fantastic, he puts in a lot of effort to be as objective as possible (while admitting up front his bias in favor of Ukraine), everything is researched and well-reasoned, and he sprinkles in just enough of a light dusting of humor to keep it all interesting. I simply don’t have time reserved for watching videos in my day. For instance, I haven’t watched a single YouTube video in the last 30 days. slurm posted:Curious what the mod policy is here. This is a Russian-flagged crane vessel the "Aleksander Zinovyev" flying visible Russian flags and working on a piece of infrastructure that we all regard as a legitimate target. It seems like an ideal and very interesting target for sneaky long range boat-drones if they exist, what am I missing? Libluini posted:a soul Herstory Begins Now posted:cuz it's gross to look at some civilian dudes repairing a bridge and go 'i hope someone blows them up with a mk19 submersible antibridgepersonnel bomb'' It’s this. I’m fine with people saying stuff like “I hope they blow the bridge up again”, but I’m not going to tolerate “I hope they murder Artyom the ministry of transportation subcontractor”. sniper4625 posted:The thing alleged to have hit the strat bombers in Russia was a suicide bomber drone, not a suicide bomber person, that's what I assume they meant. Not that I think there's any chance of a redux, if the Russians aren't on highest alert, land sea and air, now, then uh, it'd be a new low even for them. Where can I read more about Russian strategic bombers taking fire? cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 21:42
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sniper4625 posted:There were rumors on twitter a few days ago that two Russian bombers got blown up on an airfield, nothing further came out so I am filing this one under "unfortunate fog of war want-to-believe" until shown otherwise. I appreciate the link, cheers.
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Oct 12, 2022 22:17
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HonorableTB posted:Debating whether or not the Kerch bridge is a military target seems pretty pointless after it's already been categorized as a military target via truck bomb. Ukraine's behavior in the war has demonstrated a conscious aversion to attacking non-military targets and has tried to minimize collateral damage. This also sounds a lot like the argument about whether or not civilian contractors working on the Death Star counted as legitimate military targets from Clerks. There’s no reason to debate that. I’m simply asking that people refrain from explicitly call for this or that group of civilians to be killed. If you want the bridge to be blasted again when empty or in unspecified circumstances, fine by me - I’m not after prosecuting thought crimes here. Same goes for the repair boat itself, it doesn’t have smaller repair boats waiting for it to come back to the wharf.
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Oct 12, 2022 22:33
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slurm posted:The other thing specifically with a very specialized piece of equipment like a crane barge is it's going to be fairly difficult to replace. There's not more than at most a few dozen of that size in the region. If you destroy them, the crews are probably going to die, I don't know any other way to put it, but with specialized stuff like that the lines are unavoidably blurred. Or you could destroy the barge during a night, or in some way that allows the crew to evacuate. As I’m saying for the third time in 20 minutes, there’s no issue with expressing a wish that a major military logistics artery becomes or remains inoperable. One simply can express that without explicitly designating a group of civilians as a legitimate target for a suicide drone strike. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 22:46
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Russian government has placed an order for 800 modernisations of T-62 tanks. Not entirely clear if we’re talking about the T-62M, or the new T-62 modernisation kit showcased 2 months ago. https://rg.ru/amp/2022/08/15/radikalnuiu-modernizaciiu-t-62-vpervye-pokazali-na-armii-2022.html The article about modernisation procurement suggests the latter. In any case, they’re saying that the factory is working in 2 shifts, and it would take them 3 years to chew through this order, unless they go to working in 3 shifts and modernise the factory floor as well, which they’re looking into. The source for the article is a federal parliament member, who also said that the were is going to drag out. https://newizv.ru/news/society/12-10-2022/zabaykalskiy-tankovyy-zavod-poluchil-goszakaz-na-remont-i-modernizatsiyu-800-tankov https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1580216195546243072
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Oct 12, 2022 22:51
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slurm posted:I'm just trying to be very clear on this because 24h + escalator is a steep punishment for something that can just kind of be blundered into. So the crane barge/bridge can be discussed as a target so long as the crew etc. isn't mentioned, or do we have to say something like "as long as the crew is ok" every time to signify our intent? 24h+ramp is specific to the poster - but that’s the extent of what I’m going to say about the technical decision making here. Someone making their first post in D&D like that would’ve gotten 6-12 hours from me for this. Regarding the expected use of language, you don’t need to invoke any shibboleths to the tune of “as long as the crew is okay”. Just don’t say things like “those civilians are a legitimate military target”, which will have me develop a suspicion of bloodlust - especially when it’s corroborated by you devising a particular, arguably graphic, method of delivery, describing the overall opportunity in no less certain terms than “great”. Of course, there’s a line to cross there as well, as dejectedly salivating over hitting a hospital or some such won’t speak highly of your motives, but the bridge is an explicitly dual-use piece of Russia’s settler-colonial infrastructure in Crimea. Undoubtedly, having that bridge inoperable throughout winter would cause grief to people living in Crimea, but the bridge has explicitly contributed to endless grief in mainland Ukraine as well, and I therefore cannot characterise a desire to see it gone as an arrant iniquity. The matter of it is simply yet another problematic consequence of Russia’s brass-necked imperial ambition in Ukraine.
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Oct 12, 2022 23:17
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TheKingofSprings posted:I find it very difficult to call the people who would be directly facilitating their countrymen going to kill the people in another country either civilians or, particularly, innocent The bridge repair tech who is a few missed salaries away from getting his home foreclosed on him is not going to take a moral stance on being offered to repair a bridge, that’s not really how real life works. Also, I would appreciate if you can refrain from using your alternative definitions of what counts as a civilian, or moralistic characterisation of words left unsaid, as far as your posting career in D&D is concerned.
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Oct 12, 2022 23:38
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Do we even know the composition of the Russian bridge repair crews? Are they government guys, military, private contractors? Not that it changes my opinion that Ukraine should knock down that stupid bridge in the way that kills the least amount of people. We know that both public and private companies are participating in it. Not sure about the military engineers specifically. Speaking of the repairs, current best-case estimates being aired in Russian discourse are 1.5-3 months, and fairly high profile construction professionals are saying that this would get the bridge back into operation the shortest way possible, not to have it work safe and sound for the decades to come. In terms of damages, there seem to be some pillar cracks that they've supposedly fixed, near the top I presume, with diver work on going to figure out if there's any "deep" damage in the support pillars. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 00:14
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Charliegrs posted:So do countries like India, Iran, and Belarus just hate Ukraine? Because I don't get why they are literally helping Russia genocide their country. Do they actually hate Ukraine or is it like an ideological thing where might makes right to these countries? Or is it just simple dollars and sense? (India needs oil, Iran likes to sell weapons etc). It’s mostly just business, I’d say. I don’t think that Belarus has it out for Ukraine directly, or that countries like India or Iran care about it at all.
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Oct 13, 2022 00:43
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https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1580303771208339456 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1580303771208339456.html Edit: https://twitter.com/hallbenjamin/status/1580287358058270720 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 01:29
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OddObserver posted:Pretty sure they didn't sign multiple treaties recognizing those territories as non-disputed, though. The thing is that supporting “secession” of any of the 5 involved regions of Ukraine would technically mean supporting the notion of Taiwan’s independence. From this perspective, it’s a very thorny issue for Xi to engage, a “tails - you win, heads - I lose” affair.
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Oct 13, 2022 01:48
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Flappy Bert posted:I'm somewhat shocked that this seems... more or less plausible for a black bag job? It’s certainly one of the more pedestrian theories Russian government has put out concerning various unfavourable events this year. The story seems to be at least partially disputed, but it’s not about a secret anti-Russian plague to be spread by NATO pigeons at least. At the same time, FSB still is pumping out their usual fare. For instance, I wonder if you’ll spot something unusual in this recent video of an arrest of an alleged Ukrainian terrorist carrying a 3 kg bomb on them? https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1580136385901924352
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Oct 13, 2022 02:40
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Crow Buddy posted:Is that FSB agent just cutting open an “explosive” device to show it to the cameraman, two feet from the handcuffed, but otherwise unrestrained “terrorist”? A lot of confidence imo. Yeah, that part is a bit on the nose.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:34
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Popete posted:Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles Rescuing a lost post. Also I think they’re quite hosed, it’s a small company and that’s a blatant sanctions violation well into millions.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:41
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I’ve thought a bit more about the FSB version of events, and they’re basically saying that they missed someone bringing in 22 tonnes of explosives into Russia through an allied X-ray facility, the federal border, and the Kerch strait bridge checkpoint. Apparently some journalists did interview an involved explosives expert, who was less than enthusiastic about being scapegoated as unable to distinguish between two very different chemical substances on a scanner. In related news, https://twitter.com/bendobrown/status/1580385992791334912
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Oct 13, 2022 06:05
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So, what’s the 5-year plan for staying stunlocked on a trivial bloodlusting probation?CeeJee posted:It's probably easier to get explosives in Russia than to get them across the border. I’m hardly sold on “FSB did it” spin, I’m just noting that this is yet another scenario where the official explanation is “we are incompetent morons”.
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Oct 13, 2022 07:43
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