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Democrazy posted:It's unsurprising that field didn't have a decisive effect. Field and turnout by itself rarely decides any Federal election aside from the closest, and its real use is as an insurance policy in case the race tightens up to even. You never know how these things are turned out and no one wants to be caught with their pants down if it's down to the wire on the eve of a Get Out The Vote. Most races, close or not, have some sort of field program so I don't think it's insurance. Obviously huge national races are complex but there were a few major factors most have already been mentioned but another sorta meta problem occurred for the Romney campaign that they couldn't crack is the incumbency advantage. Running against an incumbent is hard because your message has to meaningfully define you against the opponent. Romney (and similarly Kerry) did only the 2nd part.
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Jun 12, 2013 00:14
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jeffersonlives posted:The ad has Rand Paul in it. Ron Paul is currently trying to recruit primary challengers to Alexander such as WWE wrestler Kane for this very race. Speaking of Rand Paul, defender of civil liberties, the man we should all look to because he dared to stand up to Obama hires White Supremacists to his staff. I really wish he was up this year.
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Jul 9, 2013 23:41
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Joementum posted:Gabriel Gomez would like to be elected to something, please and he'll take whatever you've got, Massachusetts. Maybe challenge Ed Markey for the Senate again, maybe State Treasurer. Worcester County Register of Wills? Sure, why not? NRCC wants him to run against Bill Keating. What I am saying is Gabriel Gomez is a jerk.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:24
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Look he just wants to make sure anything he does isn't premature. It may take awhile for him to recover after blowing his wad on something like this. Sex pun.
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Jul 31, 2013 02:05
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dilbertschalter posted:+1 favorability doesn't seem that impressive to me (granted most people don't have an opinion either way), to win in Georgia a Democrat should be quite popular statewide. Early polls are heat checks on the incumbent or incumbent party. Which is why Mitch McConnell needs to look out.
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Aug 6, 2013 23:57
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I just watched a Steve Lonegan interview on MSNBC and it always annoys me that Republicans can just saw a bunch of phrases that mean nothing and not get called on it.
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Aug 18, 2013 18:23
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Brigadier Sockface posted:That's not true Joe. He'd never get the votes. It'll either be Van Hollen or Becerra. Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
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Aug 30, 2013 23:41
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serewit posted:Clintonland rides again. I am not saying I like it but she is positioning herself to be the next speaker.
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Aug 30, 2013 23:58
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SilentD posted:She's a woman, and the Democratic party is still pretty sexist once you get past the "abortions, contraception, no slut shamming" part of the social/sex side of it. When it comes to what people in places of power can get away with, the left often goes after women as viciously as the right does. Same poo poo with the terms used and what sex is allowed to express what emotions. You do realize the minority leader and former speaker was a woman right?
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Aug 31, 2013 13:38
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Freudian posted:And the President is black. Perhaps America is a post-discrimination society? I mean, I get that the Democrats still have sexist elements but to say she won't get the job because she is a woman is pretty silly when literally it just happened.
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Aug 31, 2013 13:46
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And in the end it might work for Republicans if McAullife pulls a Corzine and is a corrupt piece of poo poo.
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Sep 7, 2013 06:33
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I would also assume that there is still a bragging rights thing saying I live in New York City at this place, despite a slightly higher tax rate.
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Sep 7, 2013 22:13
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Joementum posted:Tonight also features the recall vote for Colorado Senate President John Morse of Colorado Springs and Sen. Angela Giron of Pueblo on charges of insufficiently respecting the rights of well organized militias. Wait what? Can you explain this to me.
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Sep 11, 2013 03:04
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OAquinas posted:The answer is: both parties are absolutely terrible in florida. It's just that the Democratic party is just that much worse that keeps hamstringing their efforts. I am pretty sure all the FDP cares about is money and not actually building the party. At least that was the feeling I get when I was down there. Any chance like Kevin Rader or another state senator runs?
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Sep 23, 2013 12:26
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JoeCL posted:So WaPo has an article up today with new poll numbers on the VA governor's race (no link due to phone post). McAuliffe leads 47-39, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis with 10. Without Sarvis McAuliffe's lead is only 5 points, so Sarvis is clearly playing spoiler here. The majority of McAuliffe's advantage comes from women where he leads by almost 25 points. Minor spoiler it would seem.
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Sep 24, 2013 23:41
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Joementum posted:Right. That's what they are implying with the "Driving Miss Daisy" reference and the use of the word "chauffeured". Mitch McConnell would never be in the back seat.
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Sep 26, 2013 04:00
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Alter Ego posted:She's a fantastic AG, which makes that travesty of a Senate campaign all the more tragic. Literally, there is no way to make the same mistake twice, even if PPP polling puts her 20 points ahead of Charlie Baker. Every story after the primary will be DID MARTHA COAKLEY LEARN HER LESSON!? I like Martha, I think she is a better choice than Capuano. But I Am suuuuuper biased.
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Sep 26, 2013 23:48
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evilweasel posted:The most recent generic ballot (generally the only good cost-effective way to poll congress) had Generic Democrat with a +9 lead. That's in the range where the Democrats could actually win back the House. Also, everyone loves Generic Candidates until they become real candidates.
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Oct 4, 2013 03:32
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:That goes for both parties, though. The generic congressional ballot doesn't matter until at least until after the shutdown ends anyway because whichever side comes out ahead is going to get a huge bandwagon/base enthusiasm effect. Sure. I am just saying is that generic ballots more heat checks more so than any actual indication if Ds can regain the house. That being said, they literally can't do worse than where they are so they are bound to pick up a bunch of seats next year.
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Oct 4, 2013 03:58
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radical meme posted:Are New York Republicans really this desperate? Report: New York Republicans Eyeing Trump Run For Governor A three page memo essentially means they put in a bunch of unrealistic crap with no thought and charged Trump 10 grand to write it.
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Oct 15, 2013 01:35
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De Nomolos posted:Is there any state that has a well-organized Democratic or even Republican Party anymore? It seems like in the former case it's always a bunch of hacks playing like they matter and in the latter it's either a Senior Citizen Club or a shell for Tea Party or Ron Paul orgs. I know in VA the GOP is definitely swinging between Ron Paul and general Teabaggery (usually breaking down based on whether there's a military base nearby) and the DPVA is a handful of old line Civil Rights activists and a bunch of white guilt NoVA liberals, with a few Obamamaniacs from red areas who just want a friend thrown in. The white people with the money and their hack friends run things, which pretty much explains Terry McAuliffe. The Massachusetts Democratic Party is actually well oiled and unlike the FDP focuses on field and how to build candidates. Florida on the other hand is a mess of people trying to extricate money out of the few viable Democrats with no real vision of the future. edit: When I was in Florida there was actual structure problems with the FDP and long time Florida activists have told me that all the FDP cares about is raising money. Gerrymandering is a problem but should of been a bit alleviated back in the last election with the 2010 ballot initiatives. Their state house is a term limited joke and because of the limited number of Democrats making the bench shallower. The FDP has no real liaisons to the counties and offers no plans or strategies. Awful. Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Dec 5, 2013 |
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Dec 5, 2013 04:43
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Willa Rogers posted:Because the Dem Party is totally happy with semi-Dems like Crist, and such semi-Dems fit the party's national agenda for things like charter schools and austerity cuts. How many of the Dem's leadership openly supported Meeks over Crist in the Senate race a couple years ago? Very few, as I recall. Also Meek had no shot at winning, which divided the party. Meek barely campaigned and had no real compelling message.
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Dec 5, 2013 04:51
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Willa Rogers posted:Which came first, chicken Dems or the chicken eggs? Look at that Independent split again. There is no guarantee those Independents break towards Meek and in fact that year most likely would of gone to Rubio. Take a look at the Klein/West. Also, this totally ignores the shenanigans of the FDP which essentially said Meek was the man and wouldn't let anyone challenge him from within the party.
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Dec 5, 2013 05:01
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Willa Rogers posted:To have half of Dems break for the once-Republican over the Democrat was a massive failure for Dems, and a failure due in part to Dem leadership's weaksauce support of Meek and its flirtation with Crist during the campaign. That's a lot of revisionist history going on there Willa and ignores a lot of Meek's own problems.
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Dec 5, 2013 05:09
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Willa Rogers posted:Crist is a perfect fit with the current Dem Party. He'd have been a perfect fit within the current Dem Senate. Can you actually name any of Kendrick Meek's accomplishments or where he stood on issues? He literally inherited the safest seat in the US based on his mom's name and had no coherent message of what he would do in the Senate. Take that aside. The Democrats still had no real clue of how the powerful the Tea Party was until that summer and that's when the split started to occur because shock Kendrick Meek didn't do anything with his campaign. And no amount of wishing would of made him a viable candidate. The Democrats were hosed no matter who came out of that race. Some of that is the FDP fault but to say it was because Meek didn't support austerity is literally baffling to me. It completely ignores what ACTUALLY went on in Florida or nationwide that year.
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Dec 5, 2013 05:24
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Joementum posted:Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX and the biggest troll in Congress) becomes the first national politician to accept bitcoin for his Senate primary campaign against John Cornyn (R-TX). I am sure the FEC will love that.
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Jan 2, 2014 07:08
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De Nomolos posted:It wasn't until his lame duck period. Miers started it, Katrina confirmed it, and then the attempt at immigration reform in 2006 killed his position as a leader. That's not to say they would have rebelled against him for any other reason except in order to go further right (as in immigration reforms case). Katrina was the real straw as his poll numbers took a dive and never recovered. Also there was a VA Gov's election that was a bell-weather for what was about to happen to him.
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Jan 31, 2014 05:32
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Joementum posted:You're giving them too much credit. The reason to ignore Wenzel is not because they're orchestrating a grand conspiracy, it's because they are not competent. Well the other strategy is say, she is close, give us money please.
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Feb 14, 2014 02:58
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Sink was a terrible campaigner when she went in for governor and it doesn't surprise me she is blowing away an easier race.
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Mar 11, 2014 00:04
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evilweasel posted:Do special elections have a Republican bias compared to standard elections in a similar way that midterms have a Republican bias compared to Presidential elections? They are (essentially) modeled the same as a midterm election that isn't 2010. Also Coakley isn't that bad.
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Mar 13, 2014 00:53
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Rygar201 posted:Well sure. Her terrible campaign eventually bore the fruit of Senator Elizabeth Warren Republicans have won state wide in Massachusetts an as the recent Markey/Gomez campaign proved, it's close than people think. 2010 was a weird year and Coakley is fairly liberal. Trust me, this will be much different than 2010 with her.
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Mar 13, 2014 01:29
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Roumba posted:A black.
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Apr 8, 2014 12:39
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Also 50 percent of NH's media market is based in Boston. So MA politicians get free name recognition in two states.
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Apr 9, 2014 12:38
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FMguru posted:I've never understood why politicians who are on an upward trajectory take second-tier cabinet positions, or why Obama was so insistent on staffing his administration with Democratic Senators and Governors from swing states (that often ended up being replaced by Republicans). Is spending 3-5 years overseeing the VA or HUD or the Labor Department really worth bailing on a Senate seat for? Better pay, better connections, sense of purpose, you get speaker fees forever, you can become a consultant, all come to the top of my mind.
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Apr 17, 2014 00:28
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radical meme posted:Someone from Massachusetts tell me about this congressman Stephen Lynch. Mark Levin had audio of him on the Levin radio shot tonight and Lynch was trashing the ACA, saying the parts of it that were delayed was because they are totally unacceptable to everyone and that the tax on cadillac insurance plans was the first time ever that health coverage plans had been taxed, which I know for a fact is complete bullshit. How the hell did this guy get elected in Mass and is he going to be reelected? Because Stephen Lynch loves catering to the Southie base that is slowly dying. More realistically, he has to keep the unions happy by trashing the ACA.
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Apr 22, 2014 01:49
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FMguru posted:This is greatly heartening to hear, since once of the most appalling things about 2010 was how no one seemed to be held accountable for such an across-the-board shitkicking. I figured everyone just agreed to pretend that it was all the fault of the Tea Party and gosh we couldn't have done nothin' and then keep their jobs, but it sounds like down at the nuts-and-bolts level people really are treating 2010 as a lesson in What Not To Do. If the Democrats had to do 2010 again, they would of seen Martha Coakley's election as a warning sign and would of at least fought harder on the ACA. This maybe paranoia too but the media saw 2010 coming and instead of calling the Tea Party out on their awful policies and people they put into government, they instead stayed silent because they wanted access to the next Congress.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:42
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Lawn signs are a thing you give people who will ABSOLUTELY not do anything else but they are pretty ineffective.
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Apr 30, 2014 03:12
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The Warszawa posted:From what I've heard from friends who still work campaigns, lawn signs are extremely effective at their actual purpose, which is getting the candidate's non-campaign campaign people (i.e., rich friends, spouses, college frat buddies) to shut the gently caress up about visibility. Well that too.
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Apr 30, 2014 03:20
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Obama's legacy will be made or broken be next two years, and it seems he'll go down as either a man who went yo Washington to make milquetoast reforms and failed or an insufficiently strong willed man to break the gridlock and partisanship in Washington. Either way, I'm worried about 2014. Extremely. This is going to be historically low turnout if you ask me. Low turnout could either be good or bad. You seem to be basing this a lot on feelings and vague generalities. The Dems will not retake the house but the Republicans are in charge so their argument of elect us to make government work better rings a bit hallow. The Senate is a toss up but quite frankly, won't be a huge switch if the Rs only get 51 seats. Plus it's loving May. Let's see what happens in June, July, August.
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May 9, 2014 00:42
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Not to thread pimp but I have an A/T thread going on about political campaigns and it always comes back to lawn signs.
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May 11, 2014 20:31
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