Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

not a regular in this thread at all so forgive my ignorance:

whenever I read "Russia Experts" online talking about putin messing around somewhere they always make the point that Russia's reliance on cyber-attacks and proxies comes from the same reason that the US is so reliant on Sanctions, Drones, and mercenaries which is that the politicans think that soldiers actually dying is going to make things get really bad for them really fast. How would that play into the threat of actually invading Ukraine. Is it so important that this actually a cost the russians are willing to bear or is it just going to be blitzkrieg hit them hard, fast and get out after maybe installing a putin-friendly regime? Or are the russian experts just talking out of their rear end?

# ¿ Jan 13, 2022 21:12

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 18:36

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Somaen posted:

Great points. Right now Putin is domestically dealing with a bad economy, an increasingly unhappy populace and covid. In the invasion case there's just a few scenarios that don't make the first two worse (Ukraine folds with few casualties and no sanctions), otherwise after triumphantly reuniting the slavs it's back to the bunker and putting down revolts by CIA agents upset about prices all the way until 2024 when he needs to get re-elected

In the extorting security guarantees theatre case the bunker and revolts is probably the eventual outcome too. Kazakhstan showed that retirement to be a supersenator and a power handover are too dangerous. Would love to hear if anyone sees options left except to further repress anyone opposed and hold onto power until the last breadth

oh so its pre-falkland argentina except he isn't invading a great power on the idea that they won't care enough about some rocks to respond

# ¿ Jan 14, 2022 02:32

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

""
Biden's National Security Advisor Sullivan says intelligence community sees that Russia may be preparing for fabricating pretext of an invasion of Ukraine. He adds that the US has not determined yet that Putin has decided on military path forward
""

why? who is this for? is this victoria 2? who will be fooled by this?

# ¿ Jan 14, 2022 03:49

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

FishBulbia posted:

looking big on map

are you sure? this has been a real problem for russia. those 13,000 square miles could make a real difference

# ¿ Jan 14, 2022 15:59

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

""
There was an anonymous bomb threat against an airport in Kyiv today. A few other infrastructure points were closed down for the same reason few days ago.
""
""
Ukrainian Military intelligence reports leaking container with ammonia was recently brought to Stirol Chemical plant in Horlivka by Russian forces
""

""
U.S. State Dept has held talks with international energy companies over contingency plans for European natural gas supply in case of Russia-Ukraine conflict - U.S. officials and industry sources
""
--Ahahahah America never let a good disaster go to waste! Don't worry Europe we will just take that energy crisis if Russia turns the gas off and help you facilitate some better deals.

That's our true motive once again.

Have Europeans considered simply building their civilization in an area with large gas and mineral deposits?

# ¿ Jan 15, 2022 21:08

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Worlds longest loving invasion prep

# ¿ Jan 16, 2022 21:19

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

100,000 Russian soldiers are simply taking a sightseeing tour to Kiev and carrying weapons only for personal self defense. To say otherwise is alarmist

# ¿ Jan 17, 2022 01:13

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Guys (except Shibawanko), this is why it pays to pay attention in class, instead of willing your favourite Tom Clancy books into existence. Poroshenko is a Ukrainian nationalist who lost his 2019 re-election partially on being insufficiently pro-Russian. This is the guy who basically got Ukraine to sign European Union Association Agreement, and who separated Ukrainian Church from Moscow Patriarchy.

ukraine was never even mentioned in any of my classes so it becoming the country on which all global politics turns has really thrown us for a loop

# ¿ Jan 17, 2022 14:19

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I was under the impression that Russian would only take Eastern Ukraine because from what I've skimmed across on twitter along with other articles is that their current troops aren't sufficient enough for a full scaled occupation. There's a real risk that it'd turn into another Afghanistan and slowly bleed Russian lives. They win in the short term but long term they'd just bleed out.

All of this really sounds lovely too and there isn't much we are able to do. Wars are so goddamn dumb.

It�s going to turn into that no matter what if Russia invades imo. Conventional war won extremely quickly, guerillas and insurgents take their price later. Except worse politically the aghanistan because Russia still has conscription so there�s a bunch of people and peoples sons who did not volunteer for this getting sent into danger.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2022 00:42

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Charliegrs posted:

I wonder what if any impact the Olympics will have on Russias invasion timeline (if they actually do intend to invade). I guess it's not impossible but I think it would be awkward as hell for Russia to invade another country while the Olympics are going on. If I remember correctly back in 2014 they invaded Crimea like right after the Sochi Olympics ended?

russia is famous for respecting the sanctity of international sporting events so you may be on to something here

# ¿ Jan 19, 2022 04:18

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

I read an article which pointed out that crimea has huge emotional value to most European Russians since it�s a warm weather location in a country with few of them and during the Soviet era it was one of the favorite places to put summer camps so many people have fond emotional attachments to it that helped Putin�s popularity when he annexed it. Nobody has the same warm feelings about wheat fields and coal mines of eastern Ukraine valuable as that might be economically and that�s probably affecting the political calculus.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2022 16:43

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

HonorableTB posted:

When the oil runs out the collapse of the petrostates is going to be quite the sight to see

Gas going below $2 a gallon in 2012 destroyed Venezuela and caused a good dozen of countries a lot of political turmoil. Electric vehicles becoming the average car on the road would be enough and (looks at every carmakers factory plans and investment announcements) welp. 10 years before it�s the standard for all new cars, another 15 for it to filter through to the preowned market.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 16:38

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Putin�s in this situation in the first place due to his inability to understand the idea of achieving policy objectives through being nice instead of armies, assasinations, cyberattacks, and weird mind games. Nothing the Ukraine or the US does will stop home from being super aggressive. It�s the only trick in his book.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 19:55

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

surf rock posted:

One thing that's confusing me as I read along here: why is it a given that NATO wouldn't be interested in adding Ukraine? Is it purely concern about the Russian reaction, or is there something intrinsically about Ukraine that makes it an undesirable member compared with the other Eastern European countries that were added?

there is an extremely obscure anti-borscht article that many NATO members consider nevertheless the heart of the alliance

# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 02:13

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Putin�s all about living in the glories of Russia past so trying to remake the Cuban missile crisis is p unsurprising tbh. Going to fall under the sway of a mystic healer and have an affair with a horse next.

# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 17:34

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Sinteres posted:

Winning hearts and minds by laying down sick burns on the country doing the most to try to prevent their invasion (short of trying diplomacy, anyway).

Ukrainians get really insecure about the stereotype that their country is filled with monsters and they apparently will let this affect foreign policy during an existential threat to the nation

# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 19:54

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Endogamy p obviously wants turkey to become a great power in its own right vs regional power/America�s Muslim extension. He won�t stick to the American line on things just so he can be independent.

# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 20:17

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

I�m honestly beginning to think that there isn�t a secret agenda here and Putin might just not be as smart as everyone says he is.

# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 21:35

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Not unless the intention is take everything East of the Dnieper, in which case I don't even dare guess how that's gonna play out beyond short-term.

If it's securing access to Crimea and showcasing the impotence of Zelensky and NATO by crushing Ukraine's military with artillery and ballistic missiles, then that'd be achievable far more cheaply than 'an Afghanistan'.

I think a regime change like the UK claims Russia is planning would lead to "Russian Afghanistan" too. You would have to leave troops behind since Ukrainians already managed to oust a pro-russian autocrat when the average ukrainian was far more sympathetic to russia and i think there would absolutely be guerilla attacks on russian troops in that circumstance.

# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 23:30

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Sinteres posted:

I could be wrong but I just don't expect Ukrainians to be as willing to fight to the death for their country as people who believe they're called by God to do so would. Like I think most people would admit that the public in the West has been made docile to some extent by modern conveniences, and I guess I think Ukraine has gotten enough of that to calm things down a bit. Like I'd personally rather play video games than fight for my homeland if it came down to it, and while I'm sure there are exceptions, I assume many Ukrainians feel the same way.

The IRA and Basque Separatists??

# ¿ Jan 25, 2022 01:00

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

What�s the spring/summer like in Ukraine weather wise since a warm muddy winter would�ve apparently made a russian invasion harder

# ¿ Jan 25, 2022 15:19

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

GABA ghoul posted:

Seems like at this point almost all of Europe(RIP Finland)has enough gas reserves to get through this winter. Next winter would be really tough though. We would need massive investments to make the grid more compatible with LNG and then get more LNG from somewhere. Reactivate all the mothballed and standby coal plants and do some rationing for industrial and commercial gas use.

West Virgini's back baby! The true american objective revealed!

# ¿ Jan 26, 2022 23:02

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

TipTow posted:

What did the U.S., France, Turkey, et al. gain from the Baltics joining? Just because the Baltics wanted in doesn't mean NATO was obligated to bring them in.

Traditional dances.

# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 16:17

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Some opinions definitely will be moderated. For instance, if someone makes claims that Ukraine is a fake nation that was engineered to split Russia, or if someone calls for CIA to assassinate Putin. Or if someone comes in with a talking point that�s deliberately inflammatory or is otherwise difficult to be construed as an act of good faith participation in discussion of Eastern European affairs. Besides, both D&D and general forum rules do not permit quite any opinion in general.

In any case, we have an entire sub forum dedicated to discussing moderation problems. If you feel oppressed by my presence, I do suggest that you open a corresponding thread there and take it up with D&D moderators, who appointed me as an IK without me volunteering for the position in the first place.

what about borscht opinions?

# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 16:48

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

nurmie posted:

also, idk why borsht gets this weird reputation as some crazy special sacred EE food -

It has a funny name that�s easy to remember and sounds like the Swedish chefs �Bork Bork Bork�

# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 17:13

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Mokotow posted:

What sort of bun. Like a brioche burger bun or something else? They go VERY well between two slices of sourbread.

And the condiments, these would go onto the meat or as a side for the fries?

burger bun or white bread. On the meat. Ketchup or ketchup and mayo mixed together for the fries. Sour bread's too fancy for the midwest. bread selection is not great here unless you bake it yourself. I would put a light colored cheese like provolone or swiss on it.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2022 17:54

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Paladinus posted:

Lukashenko's already promised a strong response. As always, nobody says what the response might entail. There are supposedly counter-sanctions already in place that hurt the West more than their sanctions hurt Belarus. About the only bit that is known is ban on food products from certain countries, and even then only on some types, and by all estimations it's barely a dent on imports.

oh no hes figured out that a steady tractor supply is all that holds the west together.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2022 03:48

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

cat botherer posted:

Ok, so what does that accomplish though? This seems like a geopolitical equivalent of an NYT article calling out Republican hypocrisy or something.

i dont think any of the negotiations accomplish anything rn tbh. I don't know if putin will invade or if he's bluffing (i suspect invade) but I think its all baked at this point and only a monumental unforseen event will change the plan.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2022 19:35

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

cat botherer posted:

Why does everyone think an invasion is imminent when the Ukrainian gov't itself says it is overblown?

do you remember when covid was first getting rolling in the US and the trump administration kept saying that it was nothing to worry about and could be easily defeated through simply washing our hands?

# ¿ Feb 2, 2022 20:04

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

there's cost/incentive to think about too. let's say putin's bluffing, then starting a panic would mean you self-inflicted wounds on the ukrainian economy and your own political standing. Let's say putin's not bluffing, then you're political career's over anyway from either a lost war or him installing a puppet regime. why take a stupid risk?

# ¿ Feb 2, 2022 20:11

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

There has to be some dude in Ukraine who�s willing to be Putin�s puppet and have a fig leaf of some popularity. Why would they pick Yanukovych if there�s a forced regime change

# ¿ Feb 6, 2022 00:07

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Ukraine is not a NATO member and so the US has no treaty obligation to protect them. I�m not sure how the second strongest country in Easter Europe quickly falling to Russia would make the idea of an anti-Russian alliance less attractive. You can�t really be on your own in the successful invasion scenario. Either you�re with Russia or the West. No in between.

# ¿ Feb 6, 2022 03:42

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1490303211193913346

Thanks for the clarification, Alexander G.

lol he got scared by Lithuania.

# ¿ Feb 6, 2022 14:01

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1489393235655106562

Finally! An off-ramp

# ¿ Feb 7, 2022 21:19

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

mobby_6kl posted:

I've got a fight to Kiev on the 20th lol. Let's see if anything happens until then.

lol that's the date ppl think is most likely since its peak freeze and after Xi's Olympics.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 20:03

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

the russian flag is raised over Kyiv-

"Wow the rare triple bluff, more putin mind games i see"

# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 20:38

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Alchenar posted:

If people want to read more on the Russian economic relationship with China this is a good paper: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/briefing-papers/russias-economic-pivot-asia-shifting-regional-environment

(you'll notice I favour British academics, there's a really good core of British academia that never stopped looking at Russia).

Long story short the Russia-China relationship is really complicated and Russia probably doesn't want China acting in SEA the way that Russia acts in EE.

russia doesn't want lots of things that are natural consequences of its actions.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 21:16

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Xarn posted:

What is it with people's first posts in thread and hot takes?

The NHL thread gets mad when people start posting during Stanley cup season

# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 00:14

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Sekenr posted:

Not excited about it but either resigned themseves to possibility or don't care as long as they themselves dont get conscripted.

Evergreen posts regarding Russian politics

# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 17:55

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 18:36

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Cugel the Clever posted:

Zelensky has presumably seen the intel and continues to downplay purely to avoid mass panic.

there's pretty clearly been a shift in tone and messaging from the Ukrainian government in the past few days. They used to get pissed at even mentioning war as a serious possibility. Now the'yre invoking the vienna document, the ukrainian military leaders are talking about their readiness. They voted to increase their army size even if they obviously won't have a chance to implement it.

# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 20:02

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