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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

farraday posted:

WaPo and NYT have been dropping their leaks during late afternoon early evening to dominate evening news and drive interest before the morning editions. Got about 2 more hours or so before the end of the likely Mattering window for the day.

I think yesterday's leak was the last we will get this week. There is more than enough for the media to cover with the budget and CBO score coming tomorrow, the referendum on Trump in Montana, and we are heading into Memorial Day weekend after that, so people will begin tuning out.

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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

ReidRansom posted:

I hope this is just tonight's apéritif, because I mean, yeah that's good and all, but this isn't two weeks ago, I need something stronger.

WaPo and NYT really got us hooked on the good stuff last week. This week's news is weak poo poo that barely warrants an AP notification.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Why waste the money? This ad buy is not even a drop in the bucket compared to the coverage the CBO score will get. Forget cable news and national newspapers, healthcare is going to be the lead story for every local news affiliate in every market in the country.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

It's more about helping Ryan by showing he's helping his caucus, even if that help doesn't do anything.

The healthcare plan is not helping his caucus. It's doing the opposite. It had a 17% approval before they made it worse to get the HFC on board. Ryan spent his entire time as speaker telling anyone who would listen to go to the GOP website to see his amazing healthcare plan that would provide better healthcare to more people for less money, so while a lot of Republicans may be waiting for the Obamacare repeal, I don't think they are eager about replacing it with something worse, that even harms their employer-based plans.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

Yes. And Montana special election is tomorrow.

Quist better spend the next 24 hours blanketing the state with the CBO score. If you can't win off the immediate reaction to that, you might as well give up trying to win these seats.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
I've found this AHCA bill to be a bizarre piece of politics. A bad bill that cuts access to healthcare to give tax breaks to the rich was expected from the GOP, but I'd have expected them to gently caress over the young, non-GOP voters at the expense of the older, politically-active, GOP-leaning voting block.

The first order of business since retaking control of government is to yank healthcare away from the people who vote often, and vote for them in overwhelming numbers. Between the AHCA and Trump's budget, the GOP seem to be incredibly eager to put the Democrats back in power.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
Anything that is more than a 45 minute drive west from the Acela line is the Midwest, and anything south of Alexandria, VA is officially the South.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

DaveWoo posted:

This sure was a great time for the Washington Examiner to write a fawning profile of Paul Ryan:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SalenaZito/status/867509516228632577

"Kill Them With Kindness" :lol:

Salena Zito is a hack and needs to be removed that tiny-hands-dictator Twitter list.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

What a world we live in, where I am not entirely sure if he is joking or not.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
He needs to press charges today. Don't wait until after the election.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/867526997894811648

He is going to win

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

the downside is many people have voted by mail already

I'd expect he still wins because of the mail in vote. The only way Quist wins is if Gianforte dropps out.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

quote:

Top White House officials tell me the key to forcing a more disciplined President Trump is limiting his screen time. In Trump's case, it's curtailing his time watching TV...

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

empty whippet box posted:

Republicans are signaling to each other - electorate and elected officials - that they're all ok with violence. That's literally what's happening. I expect there to be a lot more and it will get a lot worse and this will be the tipping point where it starts.

Democrats need to be ready to respond with overwhelming violence in response.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
I hope the Democrats learn to forget these backwater shitholes and focus on winning seats in swing states and swing counties.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

mcmagic posted:

I guess I'll feel better about this if the Dems win in GA but I'm worried that many voters are just going to tune Trump out if nothing really happens and the GOP will keep the house in 18 just because people aren't able to sustain their outrage and don't turn out for midterms like they usually don't.

This is the most likely scenario, with the Democrats also losing ground in the Senate. I also don't have the optimism some have about 2020. Whoever the Democrats run in 2020 will be a candidate that likely only excites one wing of the party, and they are going to run on a platform of increasing taxes, increasing regulation, and taking a more conciliatory tone when dealing with the rest of the world. I think we are in for one party rule until 2022 at the earliest.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Fitzy Fitz posted:

A cardboard cutout is neck-and-neck in GA-06 right now. You're underestimating how much people want to vote against Republicans at the moment.

At the moment. This anger is not going to sustain itself for another 1.5 years, let alone up until 2020.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

the republicans are going to stop passing terrible health care bills and cutting taxes on the rich, and trump is going to become sane? good to know

They are probably going to give up on health care, and as long as the tax cuts for the rich toss a few breadcrumbs the middle class, your rank and file GOP voter will be as loyal and motivates as ever. Even if they pass the AHCA as is, until it fully kicks in, and people see their loved ones lose their insurance and die, you are not going to get a wave that carries the Democrats to power. Sure there are some vulnerable seats that the GOP might lose, but between gerrymandering, a massive financial advantage, and voters that are immune to facts, they will likely still have a comfortable majority after the 2018 election, and an expanded lead in the Senate.

We are still in this mad period of the Trump transition, but people are going to tune out, and anger in places outside of the big cities is going to die down. This is the peak of the anti-Trump mania, and its still not enough for Democrats to win a single special election with all of that energy behind them. How much better do you think they will do when people have grown numb to politics by November 2018? I wouldn't be surprised if infrastructure is being held for 2018 so the tone of the election will be all about bipartisan support for Donald Trump's plan to rebuild America.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

Paul Ryan's tax plan, and I am not exaggerating here, directs 99.6% of its benefits to the top 1%. I mean that 99.6% number literally. I did not pick a number that sounds high, it is literally true.

Between the "temporarily embarrassed millionaire syndrome" and ads thanking Paul Ryan for providing middle class tax relief, this plan is not going to cost a Republican any votes. Outside of the eat-the-rich Bernie supporters, I don't think you are going to find much anger anywhere at a massive tax cut for the 1%.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

evilweasel posted:

Trump ran on raising taxes on the rich, because that is more popular than cutting them among Republican primary voters. It is a myth republican voters love tax cuts for the rich. It's only republican donors who do.

Cutting taxes on the rich has been front and center in the Republican platform for decades, and Republican voters haven't really had a problem with that so far.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Alter Ego posted:

I think a Democratic House is a reasonable goal. Why don't you?

A Democratic House doesn't undo anything Trump has done, and will do before the 2018 election.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

double nine posted:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/869903459511918592

he's gonna tweet it out, one word per day, unless it has really big words, then it might take two days.

He does know that every media outlet has already reported what his decision was? I thought he used to understand entertainment.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Ekster posted:

If you thought Bush was bad just wait until Trump has to deal with a serious catastrophe.

I don't expect Trump to do that bad in the event of a catastrophe. He will let the qualified people handle the problem and read out a generic prepared statement. Look at how he allows the military to carry out strikes without his authorization. I

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

I've always wondered why that hasn't been the plan since day 1. Give him stupid little projects to stay busy, let him personally oversee renovations of government buildings, have have his entire day be spent picking out flooring and bathroom fixtures, then slip him an Ambien and put him to bed.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Crain posted:

Is there any situation where the EU might enact sanctions on the US? Or anyone for that matter?

There were some discussions in the immediate aftermath of Trump's victory about how exiting the Paris deal and scrapping environmental regulations on US companies might see other countries impose a tax on US exports to even out the playing field. I doubt we will see anything happen, but given how quickly Trump is pissing off the world's leaders, if such a thing is possible under all the trade regulations/treaties, I wouldn't bet against it happening.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Zophar posted:

Perhaps the silver lining here is that Trump negotiates a new deal that's actually way worse for America, in concert with his previous efforts.

Who does he even think he is going to negotiate with? 194 other countries already have a deal in place, they don't need another one.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Teriyaki Koinku posted:

This feels like the lead up to another Civil War. The South grasping desperately onto another destructive yet patently antiquated institution and way of life.

Blue states have the victory in the bag. Just make opioids available over the counter, and the red states will kill themselves.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

business hammocks posted:

I'm sure we'd have lots of fun absorbing millions of refugees from the failing south and rust belt.

We don't have to take them in. Set up safe zones in their own states.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
Trump's latest tweet storm really works well in that official press release format:

https://twitter.com/RealPressSecBot/status/871674468896194560

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

That's the stuff! I had been going through withdrawals last week, but we are finally getting the good stuff again. This is going to be a good few days.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Florida Betty posted:

Nothing to worry about, just a normal killing spree

That just about sums up America right now.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
https://twitter.com/wrightr/status/871559072679686145

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/871902998380900352

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
I feel like today's hearing is a preview of the wet fart we are going to get from Comey tomorrow.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Letting them die by taking away their Obamacare is for the best. I hope the AHCA can phase in quickly so we can thin the herd before 2020.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Acebuckeye13 posted:

"My fellow americans are morons, so they deserve to die"

jesus christ

They voted to take their own healthcare away. They absolutely deserve everything they get. Ignorance is not an excuse on this. They are not a bunch of barely literate two year olds. They are adults, and this is literally a matter of life and death. Do your homework.

As for those who didn't vote Republican who will be affected (myself included) - we are just living in the wrong place at the wrong time.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
This hearing has been hyped up far too much. I don't think we will get any meaningful new information, and after this the Russia story will die out as the special investigator takes charge.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
Comey is pissed.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
This whole Trump-Russia thing is going out with a whimper.

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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Alter Ego posted:

Which Earth in the DC Multiverse are you watching the hearings on? Totally understandable if you're on Earth-38--that's the one where Donald Trump is a kind, level-headed, well-read, compassionate soul who ran on a platform of jobs programs and expanding the social safety net.

On this one, though, he's a shithead who's being called a liar in a public hearing by the former director of the FBI.

We already knew he was a liar, and none of these lies are of any consequence.

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