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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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twoday posted:

I don't think there were many, if any, tories in the last thread

I think by now the EU is sick of endless negotiating, and having a whole extra year seems more than enough to negotiate a deal. IIRC they have already figured out a solution to the Northern Ireland problem, which was to make the trade border effectively be between NI and Britain, enforced by the UK entirely (which allows of course for a tremendous loophole of smuggling opportunities, and various other problems). I think most of the extension is to grant even further time for companies and governments to adjust to the reality of things, and work out some small kinks
On the one hand, the Tories do have a firmer majority to push through stupid deals, but a year doesn't seem like much when you consider the speed at which negotiations happened the last few infinitely long years.

Plus the Tories are probably gonna attempt to somehow trick the EU and roll back negotiations, somehow.

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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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endlessmonotony posted:

Tories tricking the EU... or even the word negotiations. Hah!

Back when there was a chance the UK might come to its senses the EU took things slowly to not look too harsh if Brexit was reversed or was going to be very soft.

Now the EU's united against the UK and the Tories have zero leverage to negotiate. They're getting a Hobson's choice on the terms and there will be no loving about with extensions. There's no words for how fed up people are looking at Johnson and his lackeys and the EU, overwhelmingly supported by public opinion, will no longer be tolerating dithering about or Dumb Tory Bullshit.

When the deadline hits, there better be big reasons that are in no way the fault of the UK in reality or in the public's eyes for an extension to even be a real consideration. EU's been prepared to walk away from the table since the 2017 election, and Corbyn was the only open question. Even before that significant EU factions were calling for just telling Britain to gently caress off without any deal at all. Now the side calling for leniency has more or less joined them.

Or in shorter terms: Every major faction in the EU that doesn't hate the British in general really hate the Tories now. It's less of a negotiation and more the Tories being presented with two options, labeled "gently caress you" and "gently caress off".
My point isn't that they'll be able to, or that the EU will play ball with Tory shenanigans - but that the absolutely best faith negotiation I expect from any Tories would be them trying to trick the EU into a completely lopsided deal. It's basically the UK side of the argument for why a year isn't enough time to negotiate a deal, because one side isn't trying - and as you say - the other side would fight over who would get to push a big red button labeled "Britain sinks beneath the waves".

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Agean90 posted:

couldn't even begin to tell you. If the Scots decide to separate and has a real movement still backing it up (ie the year long delay of real brexit doesn't sedate everyone into apathy) then youre watching a country dissolve in real time, which will be unpredictable to say the least
Question is whether it will cleave closer to the USSR, or Yugoslavia.

therattle posted:

I think they do want a deal because they still look after business interests to a degree, but that may well conflict with your b, which is also a powerful factor.

I think when it comes to China and the US we are going to be absolutely shafted.

marktheando posted:

They don't give a gently caress op, all the brexit decisions are made for short term domestic political concerns and personal greed. The people who funded Boris' leadership campaign actually want No Deal
Yeah, the end game is doing to the UK what they did to Russia, and part of that is creating and exacerbating political crises - a deal runs entirely counter to that.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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oliwan posted:

lmao, can you quote one single cspam post of mine to support this op? just one?
cspam? So you're saying you do post like that elsewhere?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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spankmeister posted:

Also also the picture is from the automatic lines that have the facial recognition machines. There aren't even human border guards involved there (usually anyway)
Chaos in Schiphol airport as facial recognition machines ask for custom clearance documentation for enormous quantities of ham.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Sneak Lemming posted:

Why do they keep saying the UK is 4 weeks behind other countries in terms of infection, when the cases show otherwise? (and now we cant track them because testing has stopped) - Where this this idea that we are a month behind come from?

XMNN posted:

think it's the number of deaths, maybe? we're up to 24 now, it's all going to have gone to poo poo by next Sunday at the latest imho

been in and out of hospital all week and based on overheard staff conversations they do not feel prepared

if this all goes massively tits up, it will be loving manslaughter on an industrial scale and I hope heads roll for it and not figuratively, I literally want to see Boris climbing a scaffold in Trafalgar square
Apart from one or two outliers, countries basically follow the same exponential curve for cases. (Adding 15-25% new cases a day) Assuming similar levels of testing, you can basically shift the curve for one country further along in their outbreak until it overlaps with another, giving you an indication of what's to come. How far you have to shift it indicates how far "behind" you are.

The actual first case in a given country might not match up with this analysis, but I think that basically comes down to two things: We don't know the actual number of infections, only official cases, and the steady exponential growth doesn't set in until you have enough infected that their behavior averages out. Like, there's a big difference between an introverted computer toucher, a preacher who directly touches thousands, or a literal death cult who deliberately infected each other before going out to infect everyone else, in terms of their ability to infect people. Given the same environment they're gonna end up on similar trajectories eventually, but the latter two could end up being "3-4 weeks ahead" of the first despite starting at the same time due to an early spike. Of course being "behind" also means you get a chance to see what's coming and implement measures to contain it earlier, changing that environment. Halve that 20% increase per day to a 10% increase, and you'll reduce your total number of cases to less than a tenth a month later. Halve it again and you're down to less than 2%.

Or you can go the other way, and try to use school children to rapidly inoculate the population. Which going by Korean statistics, is gonna result in a ton of non-symptomatic young adults who you (and they) will never realize are infected because you aren't testing them, going around infecting the rest of the population, causing a massive explosion of cases two weeks after you were supposed to close the schools if your plan was to work - and now you've got 10 times as many cases as you planned for, and your healthcare system can't treat all the patients so the mortality rate goes from 2% to 6%.

Sneak Lemming posted:

Right but you can say its policy or you can say that its premeditated. Like if they can prove or get a recording of a minister saying "we prioritize the economy/brexit over reducing deaths caused by the virus" can they be held up for violating the law? Isn't there some oath they take, that if they break it, means they can be in trouble?
The law means what the people interpreting it wants it to mean. If McDonnell's Revolutionary Tribunal is conducting the investigation, the entire Tory leadership will hang. If it's still Boris in charge then some doctors and nurses will be put on trial for failing England.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Communist Thoughts posted:

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1239312624346693633?s=20

does anyone know how to make ventilators??? plz send help. tomorrow.

worst response in the world. total loving failed state, amazing to see.
*The entire UK comes together in a herculean effort to build ventilators and hospitals*
"We have to sell them to the US to strengthen our negotiation position with the EU!"

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Inexplicable Humblebrag posted:

but because everyone's been brought up in an institutionally racist culture, everyone votes to hit their own dick with a hammer if it means showing Johnny Foriegner what for
Is this why Britain hates transwomen so much? Because they think they're trying to shirk an Englishman's duty to hit his own dick with a hammer?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Valko posted:

Okay, how bout a change of topic? I've just finished watching the news and Bojo's fiance has tested positive and she is also pregnant. The implications of this are worrying.

E: whoops, apparently she just has symptoms and has been bed ridden for a week and is on the mend. I should note that she is 32 years old.
Bojo's baby will incubate COVID-21, a far stronger version of the virus that'll only spare his bloodline.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Boris died and was replaced by the third Big Trump clone.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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This whole discussion is pretty silly, considering Stalin was made up by Khrushchev to justify his own policies. The rest of the USSR, and the world in general, just accepted it because the figure of Stalin was a powerful propaganda figure no matter your ideological bent.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Doc Hawkins posted:

they didn't build communism, and they weren't doing it to build communism, so i am comfortable saying they had it coming.

for an easier example, i do not respect comrades more when they defend pol pot.
Pol Pot was a CIA stooge, those comrades do not even respect themselves.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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multijoe posted:

I honestly hope the EU throws the expat community to the loving wolves, deport the lot of them and forfeit their homes
That's like punishing the #1 Europe fans though, for a vote many of them weren't even allowed to participate in, and the ones who were in many cases didn't get a chance to vote because the company sending out the ballots did it in the most incompetent way possible. (Though I have to assume it was actually purposefully incompetent)

I suppose you could do a simple test and just yell "Two world wars" and if they respond with "one world cup" then they get kicked out and Spain can auction off their houses to Germans.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Continuity RCP posted:

They are absolutely not the #1 Europe fans. One idiot at my workplace voted for Brexit then immediately retired to Spain.
On average they are, Brexit support was only like 20% among them. I did make an allowance for exactly this kind of person with my ingeniously sneaky allusion to Brexiteer pensioneers.

Mackers posted:

I know an english girl living in germany, married to a german dude, with a kid

and she supported brexit :psyboom:

i just had no idea what to say to that tbh
AfD voter for sure.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Jose posted:

the UK makes a lot more sense once you realise that boomers think they lived through the war
"I remember Churchill thanking me for my bravery on Omaha Beach", says man born in 1954.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Private Speech posted:

Can anyone tell me why the UK is doing a quarantine for foreigners now when the UK is the second hardest hit place in the world.
Obviously it'd have been smart to do it early, but just because the UK is pretty bad on a country-to-country basis doesn't mean certain groups from other countries can't be far more likely to have the virus than any given citizen of the UK. People deciding to travel the world during a pandemic are exactly the types you'd classify as exhibiting risky behavior that makes it far more likely that they're infected compared to their countrymen.

Private Speech posted:

And even compared with the US it's not faring particularly well on a per capita basis considering the population difference.
The UK probably is too to some degree, but the US is really cooking the numbers now, so it's kinda hard to compare them with anyone.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Continuity RCP posted:

I have bad news for you about the cpgb
The Communist Pedophile Group of Britain?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Continuity RCP posted:

Gerry Healy died decades ago
Trotskyism lives on.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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The man has to support the niche content producers that cater to his unique tastes.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Jeremy Corbyn's dream vacation is a biking trip in the Czech Republic where he'd create a photo album of manhole covers inbetween bean-fueled sex/political discussion marathons with his black lover. This completely disqualifies him from becoming prime minister.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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spankmeister posted:

We'll know when the second wave hits in the fall/winter. Then we'll also hopefully have a lot of trials ready to go for therapeutics and other things, because the ones that are running now are fighting over subjects. One small downside of having flattened the curve I suppose.
People keep talking about this second wave in fall/winter, but isn't that based on the assumption that the first one subsides? The US response so far points more towards a step ladder approach until there's no room for a second wave because the first one has already swept clean through the US.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Communist Thoughts posted:

gove has a shady wing of media and dark doings behind him but so do like 2 other tory factions, kier is trying to get his own too. plus hes a fuckup and looks like a fish monster.
the media considers him very smart cause they're insanely loving stupid and intellectually (and sometimes genetically) inbred.
He used to be a journalist. For The Times.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Honest Thief posted:

bluepilled, thats a descriptor for liberals, no? definitely not bluechew or any other blue pill
Liberals are piss yellow, blue is for conservatives.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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comedyblissoption posted:

a couple questions:
  • dont most uk voters have little idea of what policies the parties actually support
  • for those dimly aware, is enthusiasm for the labour party depressed because they pushed neoliberalism for so long
The don't even know which party is in power. They hear they have a Labour council, and think that means they're living under a Labour government.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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NGC773 posted:

Agreed that the Govts response to COVID has not been good and that other EU countries have done it far better. My argument is that the easing of lockdown has to happen before the economic effect causes an even more adverse environment than COVID ever did.
The whole point of a lockdown is to minimize the effect of COVID, the more successful you are the more adverse the lockdown is relative to COVID in terms of economic effects - that's the whole point. You shouldn't compare the effect of the lockdown to the effect of COVID under lockdown, but COVID with no lockdown. Which as we see in the US suppresses consumption pretty well on its own because the majority does not want to risk their health to go eat at a restaurant.

In the longer term, a significant percentage of people who recover from COVID are likely not gonna fully recover, and thus their ability to work will be hampered by reduced lung capacity and general fatigue, possibly nerve/brain damage too in some cases. Even without geting into the discussion of the morality of looking at things from an economic point of view - which appears to be the only criteria you care about - the lasting effects of infection will result in real permanent damage to the core of economy, instead of bullshit numbers that have no relation to reality.

Going hard on a lockdown to really suppress cases followed by a slow relaxation of rules after a proper test and trace system has been implemented is the cheapest approach for anything but the immediate short term,
and the one with the least human misery to boot. The only downside is showing that government and collective action can actually achieve things.

*Has the UK had anything even approaching a proper lockdown?

NGC773 posted:

The BOE cannot continue to let the money printers go off forever. Look at what happened to Germany in the 1920s when the printers go wild.
Hyperinflation is a deliberate policy, it's not just what happens when you have a lot of inflation. And the timescales we're talking about here would not result in inflation ever worth worrying about. (Because a little inflation is perfectly fine and even good in some cases.)

NGC773 posted:

Yes, hyperinflation was deliberately caused. That doesn't mean that printing money is an easy way out to spend more. Printing money excessively will cause more issues than problems it solves.

By your logic no one should be entitled to an opinion unless they are degree educated on a subject. Nonsense. I only said cut out the personal insults because they were that, insults. I have no issue with people disagreeing with me, I want to debate and test different topics with people.

No need to no platform people with opposite views.
The issue is that you're factually wrong. Even accepting your ideological position, such as the economy being the priority, your conclusions do not conform to facts.

A Buttery Pastry has issued a correction as of 14:19 on Jul 7, 2020

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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oliwan posted:

reddit, noted left wing echo chamber
REDdit

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Spangly A posted:

Do you understand what edgy means? Have you never spoken to any left sympathetic person before? "uk politics is corrupt" is a completely normal belief shared by the majority of people across the political spectrum.
If you're the dullest tool in the shed, everything else looks edgy.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Continuity RCP posted:

Nobody is going to come to Plague Island to study
It might still be the intention.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Continuity RCP posted:

By the time of the Norman invasions England was already on its way to being more traditionally "feudal". The British History Podcast did a good episode the Anglo-Saxon economy and how economic consolidation was turning supposedly free farmers into serfs last year. I'll try to find it
Things started turning sour the moment they rallied against Danish rule.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Communist Thoughts posted:

Yeah basically, like all tory plans it'll backfire catastrophically but they'll be rich enough to be insulated from the consequences.
And as long as they go to the right dinner and pedo parties the media will tut and move on.

Then we get goldman sachs vs MI5 in 2024
Can't wait for the KGB double agents to finally take control of the UK and institute Brezhnev-era socialism in Britain.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Captain Splendid posted:

Cromwell basically ruled as a king and was a fantastically dreadful person.

When he died everyone basically just went

"Well, we have that a try. Let us never do it again."
The original Corbyn. Thankfully, the UK has put measures in place to prevent such a radical from ever coming to power again!

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Dravs posted:

What if the export company is itself in Kent? Do they have to erect a border station at the exit to their factory?

If a trucker is stopped in Kent without paperwork, how do you prove that their next destination is the EU?

What are the odds on how much thought has gone into this by the Tories?
Kent will be abolished to get around this issue.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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"I can racially profile hundreds of people an hour and not even notice", said a proud Sir Keir Starmer as he hurried past our reporter and quickly locked the doors of his car.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Jarf posted:

Lmao. Can we just cancel Brexit already? Come on!

Jose posted:

lol no its genuinely impossible now
Brexit has already happened, right? The UK is just in transition period allowing everyone to prepare properly for the new status quo.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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gonadic io posted:

I know you're joking, but the UK and Ireland are still going to have free movement (including living, working, healthcare etc) as the Common Travel Area is unrelated to the EU.
Until reunification in 2023 at least.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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First you get Borisia for 15 years, then Albion under a Welsh dictator, until eventually all the English farmers are kicked out and their lands expropriated.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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RIP to UK poster's access to SA.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Gonzo McFee posted:

The UKMT, while also being aggressively left wing, takes the bait like starved piranha. We're like those Chinese Vampires that you just have to drop things in front of and they'll stop chasing you to examine what you dropped.
Most trollable thread on the forums.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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gonadic io posted:

boris explicitly said if biden wins he'd consider taking the eu's deal
can't believe the english are letting him talk down britain like that.

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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

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Taintrunner posted:

Yeah, this. Kiss your NHS goodbye.
NHS
Non-chlorinated chicken
Northern Ireland

Pick one to keep

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