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Philthy posted:The day he announced he was running, it made headlines everywhere. I picked up a newspaper at a gas station (It was across the front page) with a few friends and showed it to them and said "This is our next President." and it was nothing but unstoppable momentum to the presidency. It wasn't all roses in 2007 for Obama. Anyway apply it to McCain then in 2007. His campaign was dead and he one the nomination. Cain? Perry? The point I was making was that a lot can change between now and the primaries. Trump isn't going to win the nomination and it's wishful thinking to even think it has a realistic chance of happening. There are multiple field organizations, the entire GOP establishment and hundreds of millions of dollars that will be behind a single candidate and it won't be Trump. And I highly doubt that Trump will put enough money in his campaign to matter. At most I see Trump doing some kind of deal with the GOP to not run as an independent. I hope I'm wrong and he runs independent though. He's certainly made it further then I thought he would.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:02
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Aliquid posted:I don't agree that it would have been that remarkable for Cain and Perry to have come out of the 2007-2008 primaries unscathed. It in fact happened. Not sure what you're saying about reality- Cain and Perry both approached 30% and then crashed. Just like Trump is probably going to. To think that Trump is going to win the nomination is a bit unrealistic. Bush: 
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Aug 26, 2015 05:12
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Aliquid posted:neither perry nor cain ran in 2008 I didn't say they ran in 2008. Many candidates without party support, in 2008 and 2012, reached 20-30% and then flamed out, just like Trump will.
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Aug 26, 2015 09:39
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FAUXTON posted:
Losing Roger Stone and other key staff and replacing them with Perry campaign leftovers isn't exactly a net positive for Trump.
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Aug 26, 2015 09:55
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OneTwentySix posted:How do you live with yourself when Trump and Carson are polling higher than you are? Jeb Bush realizes that it is August and the polls don't matter yet. His massive field organization, money and super PAC money will take care of the rest until primaries. None of which Trump has.
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Aug 28, 2015 00:44
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HappyHippo posted:I made a chart: I'm guessing that both Rubio and Biden would dip below the line if they received the same scrutiny and attention that Bush and Clinton are. Although Rubio doesn't say many stupid things which is rare.
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Aug 28, 2015 23:47
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Patter Song posted:
Jeb Bush's numbers with both first choice and second choice are a lot lower than I thought they would be.
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Aug 30, 2015 01:14
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Good Citizen posted:In the 2000 election environment? Probably. Either would get steamrolled just as bad in this environment though. Yeah I think in 2000 that the media would be doing a lot more to stop Trump or at least call him out a lot more. Jeb's responses the last few days to Trump seem a bit unfocused. I could see something happening where Jeb get's so frustrated with Trump that he says something along the lines of "you don't deserve to be President" which would result in a meltdown. Jewel Repetition posted:Well, being a billionaire in Mexico means you've probably done some very bad things. He's not just a regular billionaire, he's the 2nd richest guy in the world right now.
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Sep 2, 2015 17:42
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Base Camp Blanket posted:The VP debate would be worth watching for once. The 2012 VP debate was pretty good- Biden wiped the floor with Ryan. It was much needed after Obama's lethargic 1st debate. Foxnews was whining that Biden was too aggressive.
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Sep 3, 2015 08:26
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I highly doubt that Trump could successfully get on the ballot as an independent in most of the swing states. He'd have to start doing so last month.
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Sep 3, 2015 11:37
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railroad terror posted:Sounds like the Whitey Tape to me. Reporters actually asked Obama about the whitey tape. That's how dumb they are. Xenophon posted:Rand is on board with Christie: Is this the first time that the GOP is doing something that Trump is going to be forced to respond to? Seems like Trump has been directing and dictating the conversation so far. Mitt Romney fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Sep 3, 2015 |
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Sep 3, 2015 15:11
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Doctor Butts posted:1. Whitewater went nowhere Didn't whitewater lead to Lewinsky after 5 years?
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Sep 3, 2015 17:02
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Forums Terrorist posted:lol at He's not wrong. Trump is not going to win the nomination with a ceiling of 30%, no organization, no fundraising, no endorsements and no party support.
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Sep 3, 2015 18:23
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Narciss posted:You realize he's at 30% now and no GOP candidates have even dropped out yet. You don't think he can grab some voters from Cruz or Walker? 30% in September means nothing and it's infinitely more likely that Cruz/Bush/Walker siphon votes from him. There is a ceiling to Trump's support.
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Sep 3, 2015 18:26
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Xenophon posted:fuckin' lol. His one man hate-parade against Bush is making this election season so rich. Is that real? That's going to get under Trump's skin I bet.
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Sep 3, 2015 19:36
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Grouchio posted:In a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is Trump to get elected? How likely is Bernie? Close to zero and it's also extremely unlikely that he'll run independent- he'd need to start doing the groundwork for that like months ago.
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Sep 6, 2015 14:05
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FAUXTON posted:The emails are just this year's Vince Foster. How is her lying about taking fire in Bosnia not a legitimate issue? That one in particular is going to be played in a lot of ads next summer. Her saying she took fire juxtaposed with her holding hands with a greeting party of children.
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Sep 9, 2015 12:11
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Boosted_C5 posted:Yeah saying his brother let congress spend to much is complete B.S. The $1T+ trillion deficit in Bush's last credited fiscal year can be mostly credited to the congress and president who approved the tax cuts in his first term and the wars from his first term. Sort of funny how Bush's presidency started on 9/12/2001 and ended on Jan 1 2007 for some people.
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Sep 9, 2015 22:10
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fade5 posted:I remain amazed at Jeb!'s basically constant decline. Like seriously, he's looking more and more like the "flavor of the month" candidates in 2012 rather than this cyle's Romney. Romney had a similar decline during this similar time period (July 1 -> Oct 1), 25 to 16.5. While Romney started higher than Bush did, Romney's decline was actually a few points larger. I think Bush is this election's Romney and his polling is about 8 lower than Romney's was on average because of the expanded field. Bush has much stronger financial backing, endorsements, field operations and PAC support than Romney did at this point too.
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Sep 11, 2015 00:28
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Dante80 posted:Added as 18. The election would look like this if in the very unlikely scenario Sanders was the nominee.  or this  Replace Nixon/Reagan with Bush.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:20
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Dahn posted:I think your right, this would be the death of the two party system. If Trump waits much longer he can't run independent because of the signatures and due dates required for an independent run. States are making increasingly difficult to get on the ballot without being one of the major two parties.
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Sep 13, 2015 13:04
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AllanGordon posted:How many weeks has trump led the polls by now? About the same as Rick Perry in 2012.
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Sep 13, 2015 18:23
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Xenophon posted:So when is CNN going to respond one way or another to Trump's requests that their debate profits go to charities that support veterans? Isn't Liberty U the school that requires students to attend political speeches?
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Sep 14, 2015 17:04
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DaveWoo posted:Quote of the Day - "President Trump today announced that the first season of "The Apprentice: White House Edition" will air on CBS this fall. Contestants, including Gary Busey, Ted Cruz and Kanye West, will vie for Cabinet positions. The announcement came as the newly renamed "Hair Force One" touched down in South Dakota for the unveiling of President Trump's face on Mount Rushmore. Meanwhile, first lady Melania had reason to celebrate as her White House-branded perfume, Trump, by Trump, hit Macy's shelves ..." ~Gov. Bobby Jindal I'm guessing Bush offered him a cabinet position to do this? Or did Jindal turn into a raving lunatic voluntarily?
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Sep 16, 2015 00:55
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Joementum posted:Fun fact: the USS Iowa and USS Wisconsin are required by an act of Congress from 2005 to be kept in sufficient shape (avoid rust, mechanical upkeep) that they could be put into service, if needed. Here's another fun fact about Iowa class battleships during one of the last firings of their weapons, in which the navy blamed an explosion on a suicidal homosexual, who turned out to not be homosexual or suicidal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Iowa_turret_explosion quote:The first investigation into the explosion, conducted by the U.S. Navy, concluded that one of the gun turret crew members, Clayton Hartwig, who died in the explosion, had deliberately caused it. During the investigation, numerous leaks to the media, later attributed to U.S. Navy officers and investigators, implied that Hartwig and another sailor, Kendall Truitt, had engaged in a homosexual relationship and that Hartwig had caused the explosion after their relationship had soured. In its report, however, the U.S. Navy concluded that the evidence did not show that Hartwig was homosexual but that he was suicidal and had caused the explosion with either an electronic or chemical detonator.
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Sep 16, 2015 02:02
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Titan posted:In the event Trump does become President, will he have to relinquish control of his company in order to prevent any conflict of interest? Because he's not a serious candidate and has less than a 0.5% chance of winning the nomination.
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Sep 16, 2015 23:19
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Intel&Sebastian posted:I mean, poo poo, Romney was haunted by "self deport" all the way to the end. And that seems positively progressive compared to most of their stances on immigration. It really does seem like to me that any potential GOP general candidate has already damaged themselves tremendously more than they did in the 2012 GOP primaries. Seems like every single GOP candidate is on record saying some pretty extreme stuff this year. Rubio is the only one that hasn't really stuck out to me as saying too many stupid extreme things though.
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Sep 17, 2015 19:59
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It's funny that in Walker's drop out speech he went on about personal attacks and people should use the bible as a thing to help act better. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago when he compared a good chunk of the American population (unions) to ISIS?
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Sep 22, 2015 15:38
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Milk Malk posted:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_92215.pdf Anyone who still thinks Trump has a chance at the nomination should read these numbers. He's not going to win. The only thing he's going to accomplish (which he's done a lot) is get the actual candidates to say some pretty stupid things. Rubio hasn't gotten caught up much in saying extreme things though. Mitt Romney fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Sep 22, 2015 |
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Sep 22, 2015 20:48
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midnightclimax posted:Re accuracy of polls: What about the Israeli and UK elections? Both times polls were way off. Iirc, the argument is that landlines are getting less popular and online polls are based on a self-selected sample. Typically if you find yourself on the side of unskewing polls, you are on the wrong side.
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Sep 22, 2015 20:52
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GlyphGryph posted:Considering that as of a little earlier this month you still thought Bush had a chance, and Trump is soundly thrashing Bush here, have you changed your mind about that or is there some unseen consistency to your claim? And why do those factors apply to Bush but not Trump in a way that this, specifically, is proof positive Trump can't win? I still think Bush will be the nominee. You can't underestimate money, endorsements, almost the entire establishment support and the field organization that Bush has. Trump has none of that and his ceiling is 38% in head to head match-ups. The reason the same rules don't apply to both candidates is that they are both very different candidates with different methods of support. Polls don't matter that much this far from the election. Trump's high polling numbers mean virtually nothing right now as do Jeb's low polling numbers.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:29
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GlyphGryph posted:"Polls only matter when they say what I want to hear, they don't matter when they say something I don't want to hear." Nice cheer-leading there buddy. That's not what I said, and I doubt I've ever said that I thought Walker would win explicitly. Trump has a ceiling and the serious GOP candidates don't is what it comes down to. Bush is the candidate with the most party and money support out of those candidates by far.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:45
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Hodgepodge posted:The email scandal is literally about her doing things by the books (albeit the books being out of date and wrong in this case). "Proceed, Governor" was about the Republicans, all the way up to Romney, literally believing that Obama didn't say something that he said in front of the entire world about Benghazi.Then they bitched about the moderator when they were called on their delusional beliefs in a debate and proceeded to haul Clinton in front of committees that will clearly find something wrong with how the administration handled Benghazi any day now. It's the exact strategy they used on Bill Clinton. They investigated him for white water and it ended up with a blue dress 5 years later. The GOP will be investigating Clinton until she loses the election or at the end of her 2nd term. The goal being it puts her under constant pressure (interrupts her strategy) and the hope that they can pin something, however unrelated, on her.
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Sep 23, 2015 15:19
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Montasque posted:Come with me, deep down the rabbit hole, where Karl Rove is working for his internationalist corporate masters to destroy Donald Trump and bring about the reign of Jeb: Want a scary thought? Jeb Bush wins 2016 and Karl Rove gets back in the white house in a position of power.
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Sep 23, 2015 22:02
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Narciss posted:Remember when posters here were saying that mailgate was 'astroturfed' and that it wouldn't hurt Hillary because no one in the real world cared about it? Remember when the only website promoting that book is Drudge?
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Sep 24, 2015 00:14
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blue squares posted:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Klein#Questions_of_credibility_of_sources_in_work What, you don't think Hillary Clinton goes around complaining of haters? That book is a joke.
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Sep 24, 2015 00:17
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Khisanth Magus posted:I think that a shutdown is all but guaranteed at this point. Boehner doesn't want one, but the lunatics that now control a large portion of his party most certainly do. What is going to be scary is if Boehner loses his leadership to one of the crazies. The potential for a long-term shutdown becomes real at that point.
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Sep 24, 2015 21:38
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Montasque posted:Thank you! He's supposed to wait to say that until after the primaries are over.
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Sep 26, 2015 22:20
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fade5 posted:Thank you very much for Balkanizing the threads Sheng-ji Yang. (Seriously.) If the primary (likely) comes down to Bush v Rubio, endorsements like Walker become a lot more important. Edwards endorsement could've had a decent impact in 2008 but he waited until Obama was inevitable.
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Sep 26, 2015 23:58
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Philthy posted:So do Republicans wake up every morning, stretch, sit down enjoy a nice cup of coffee, look out over their beautiful back yard and watch the squirrels carry nuts away, then come inside, thinking how great this coffee is and how Earth is such a beautiful place to live, pop on the TV, and see people screaming about brown people invading our country and then get all angry and suddenly the rest of the day illegal immigrants is ruining their lives? They go to Wal-Mart and hear Mexican families speaking Spanish. Then they go to McDonalds and the checkout process is 100% Mexicans. Stuff like that scares them because it's new and different. It's heavily reinforced by the news though.
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Sep 27, 2015 03:55
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