USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

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axeil: Feb 14, 2006

straight up brolic posted:

trump not knowing that russia annexed crimea is seriously mindblowing.

On that topic, have any countries accepted that as legitimate yet? Is there a chance Ukraine gets it back?

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 13:04

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 13:56

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Mr Interweb posted:

Does anyone have a good source on GDP growth by quarter?

FRED is your friend.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Seriously any time anyone has a question on economy figures just use FRED.

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 16:39

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Mr Interweb posted:

Thanks, but how do I get that to display quarterly percentage growth?

Edit Graph->Units->Percent Change

This is also the seasonally adjusted number. If you want the raw number it's a different series, but it should be easy to find by searching. Or scrolling down the page to the "related series" links.

axeil fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Aug 1, 2016

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 16:49

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Riptor posted:

you can't remember 3 names?

What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 03:26

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

TVarmy posted:

If Trump is firing so many people in his campaign, doesn't that mean a lot of sudden late hires? And don't they need to be brought on board quickly?

So they bring on poorly vetted people and presumably get them email passwords and internal documents right away. Does this mean we're likely to get some fascinating leaks?

In an undisclosed embassay...

Julian closed his computer. It was done. He had hacked the DNC. The files were in transit to Moscow and soon they would be released to the world, sending the election into chaos. Everything was going according to plan. Then, the phone.

"Yeah?"
"You know who it is. Look kid, the timetable here is getting a bit screwy, The Boss wants us to move things up."
"Move things up?"
"Yeah, turns out Our Mutual Friend is hard to control. Can't stay on script, it's really a problem. There's a new plan in place now."
"Okay, so when are they going out?"
"Tomorrow. And by this time next month you're going to have a new identity. And a new face. Again."
"What do you mean?"
"Julian...the situation has changed. We're cutting Our Mutual Friend lose. He's been blacklisted. We need you to help put the last nail in the coffin. We're going to need you in the campaign. We're going to need you on the ground. We need those documents. You know the ones, the ones you couriered between The Boss and Our Mutual Friend. The "Insurance Policy." Are you ready to make America Great Again?"

That phrase. The codeword. He swallowed and looked at the photo he kept by his makeshift bed. All of this, all he had sacrificed, the years in the embassy, it was all worth it if he could keep the promise he had made. If he could prove his worth. He grimaced.

"Yes, sir. Ready."

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 03:45

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Crabtree posted:

"Prince Ali - Fabulious He - Ali-Al-Bobwa is rumored to have committed genocide on the local sand people tribes. Yet we still value him as a key US favoring ally in our War on Terror. Mr. Trump, should we continue to maintain that relationship, even when this threatens to lose support from Emperor Ganishka of the Nation of Kush and Princess Yum-Yum of Golden City, also key allies in the Middle East against ISIS?"

"Well I heard he's strong as ten regular men. You can't be safe with someone like that...look he's not safe ok? I've seen him. He's not a safe guy. Way too strong. And where's he from anyhow huh? Anyone ever see him before?"

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 03:51

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Jazerus posted:

Once, Trump was happy to get one shot of attention per day. It played nicely with the news cycle so it seemed like an actual strategy. Now, his tolerance is rising and he can no longer pace his hits - every day is more controversial than the last, like a heroin addict accelerating to spending thousands of dollars per week and continuing to accelerate until they're entirely out of money.

I have to admit I thought Prester Jane's analysis of Trump was trying a little too hard to fit Trump into clinical narcissism. I have no doubt in her analysis after the last few days, though.

Does anyone have that handy? I was telling one of my friends about it and couldn't find the post and it says it far more eloquently and in-depth than I ever could.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 03:54

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Quorum posted:

https://twitter.com/hillhulse/status/760668631923499008

Boehner having a list of everyone who made his life as Speaker hell and drinking a big glass of wine every time they lose their elections would be pretty sweet.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 03:56

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Crabtree posted:

"We've seen him personally drive back Al-Queda with the US army. He single handedly faced the galloping hordes, a hundred badguys with guns, bombs and swords. Who sent those terrorists back to our Lord, why, Prince Ali."

"I mean, have you all seen this guy? 75 golden camels! I'm rich. You know. Very rich, and I have way more than 75. At least a hundred. They're all really nice camels. The best camels. Plus the peacocks. Very nice color. Great color. The purple really shows. They look great. They're the best. That guy's zoo...it's not even second-class. Sad! And I mean get this. Get. This. He lets people in for free! For free? What 's he doing with that? I dunno, I dunno if we can trust a guy like that. That kind of guy. He's probably full of secrets."

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 04:11

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Mountaineer posted:

Republicans are in a tough spot. If things got bad enough they could come out and say they're not going to defend Trump anymore and instead they'll focus on congressional and states races. The thing is they kind of have to cling to the possibility of winning the presidency, because losing that almost certainly means losing the Supreme Court.

My feelings of schadenfreude are immense.

Except they have to know that ticket-splitting is pretty rare these days and if they telegraph "we are pulling out of the POTUS race" it's going to turn into a rout as Hillary can disengage a lot of forces to focus on down-ballot as well and know that she's going to get a blowout bump. The blowout bump being the situation in which candidates up by large margins in polls tend to do even better on election day as people want to vote for a winner.

But my fever dream of 400 electoral votes gets closer and closer every day. :pray:

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 05:48

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Arrgytehpirate posted:

What would happen if someone like Paul Ryan. Not Paul Ryan specifically because he's a giant pussy but a high ranking republican came out and said they were voting for Hillary? Would there be any consequence besides them getting primaried?

Well a sitting House GOP member (the one from Syracuse, NY I think) said he's voting for Hillary.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 16:33

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Civilized Fishbot posted:

holy poo poo, imagine not taking the money

Take the money, tell them you won't run the story, and then run the story.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 20:51

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

A Winner is Jew posted:

If you did that though you'd have to donate it.

Which I'm fine with.

Oh yeah. Also you might run into FCPA stuff but IANAL so I'm not sure.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 20:53

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Here's Prester Jane's post. Can we put it in the OP?

Prester Jane posted:

Note: Posted this in the USPOL thread but crossposting it here as well.

I have received several messages from Goons asking about my opinion Re: how Trump will handle the pressure of a real General election. I have (with permission) reprinted one of those messages here so that I can properly address the subject.

To explain my analysis of what the impending Trump meltdown will look like (I am quite certain we are going to witness the rare instance of a narcissist dropping their mask and revealing their true ugliness, and I think we are going to witness it on live TV) I will first need to elaborate a bit on my perception of who Trump is and how his conflict with Hillary will play out.

As mentioned in earlier posts, Trump is a clinical narcissist. While many people understand that this means �a very selfish individual� I would like to explain that clinical Narcissism is a bit more complicated than that.

narcissist�s have at a deep psychological level a fundamental disconnect between reality and themselves. Specifically, they are completely unable to perceive themselves. narcissists have no self image, and no concept of a self image. They have no self awareness whatsoever. They are literally unable to think of themselves in the first person as you and I understand it. Their experience of reality is wholly different from our experience of reality as a result. They cannot perceive themselves or acquire information about themselves in any way except in the reactions of people around them. narcissists are often portrayed as obsessively staring into a mirror, and this is honestly a somewhat inaccurate way of portraying them in my view. narcissists are indeed staring intently into a mirror, but that mirror is the faces of the people around them. narcissists are like vampires in that they have no reflection in the mirror, they cannot see themselves. To think of it another way- the only surface that reflects a narcissists image is the faces of other people. And so they stare intently into the faces of others in order to see themselves.

If a narcissist is unable to see themselves they experience an unending sense of dread, a terror that they are artificial, not real. To relieve this sense of dread a narcissist is strongly compelled to force those around them to acknowledge them in some way, to react to them. (The stronger the reaction, the better, which is in large part what can compel the narcissist to such extremes of behavior) Watching people react to the narcissist provides them with relief to the immense and indescribable sense of dread the narcissist feels from being unable to think of themselves in a normal first person fashion. Not ONLY does this provide relief, but it can potentially also provide a massive rush of all the natural feel good drugs the human brain can produce. The sensation gained from these natural feel good chemicals being pumped through the narcissist�s body is what is called narcissistic Supply. (Hereafter referred to simply as �Supply�.)

All narcissists have a delusional and exaggerated false image of themselves that they cherish internally. While a narcissist is compelled to get a reaction (any reaction will do) from those around them in order to avoid the sense of dread that is the narcissist� default mode, if the narcissist is able to generate a reaction in others that is consistent with the delusional self image the narcissist carries internally, then the narcissist not only finds relief from their identity crises, but they experience a powerful drug-like euphoria. This euphoric feeling is intensely energizing, the narcissist feels like an invincible Godbeing that can change the entire world according to their personal whim. narcissists are ADDICTS to this sensation first and foremost, and the behavior of a narcissist is best understood as that of an addict. The worst kind of addict at that- the kind of addict that has completely lost themselves to their drug. A narcissist is like an empty shell-human running on autopilot, a complicated meat calculator that exists only to experience pleasure (which can only be experienced while under the effects of Supply) and devotes itself exclusively to that goal. There is nothing else to the world of the narcissist except obtaining Supply, or if Supply is not available, then the narcissist will be instantly overcome by the horrendous sense of dread that is their true existence and will do whatever it takes to force a reaction from those around them in order to find relief from this dread.

To understand the behavior of a narcissist then it is important to recognize that what reactions generate Supply vary considerably from narcissist to narcissist. Think of it like this, a narcissist cannot see themselves except by using the faces of others as a mirror. If a narcissist does not have a mirror handy, they experience a tremendous sense of dread, so they will find a mirror (face of another) to stare into and they will do whatever it takes in order to get that mirror�s attention. The reflection the Narcissist sees in the mirror is a reflection of the behavior of the narcissist, and the reflection changes as a result. There is a specific reflection that the narcissist wishes to see, a specific way of seeing themselves reflected in others- the delusional false image that the narcissist carries of themselves. If they can see this particular image of themselves, then they experience the powerful euphoria of Supply. The idea here then is while any mirror and any reflection of themselves will do in order to avoid the sense of dread, seeing the deified version of themselves reflected in the faces of others is what the narcissist is truly seeking- it is their drug.

Supply then can be thought of as a potent and astonishingly addictive drug, a drug that generates a sensation of Godlike invulnerability and confidence, but more importantly for our discussion Supply is a drug where withdrawal symptoms set in instantly. That is to say, the very moment the rush of Supply is denied a narcissist, they instantly feel the full weight of the existential dread that is their true existence. They will seek more Supply immediately, and if unable to obtain Supply then they will resort to staving off the dread by generating a reaction in those around them. Think of a narcissist this way: They are a heroin addict that is addicted to a unique kind of heroin. This kind of heroin sets in instantly, and obtains its full euphoric peak instantly. This kind of Heroin has no overdose risk, the higher the dose the greater the pleasure, so cook the biggest dose you can afford every time. The drawback is that as soon as the dose wears off, the full power of opiate withdrawal sets in instantly. So those addicted to this specific kind of heroin go from experiencing the immense euphoria of a heroin high to experiencing the hellish depths of heroin withdrawal in the space of a single heartbeat. Also in the case of our special kind of heroin here, if an addict is experiencing withdrawal they can at least find relief from the withdrawal by abusing another opiate. It won�t get them high, but it will at least allow them to function.
One final unique quality to this special heroin is something I will call �peak tolerance�. What this term is describing is the idea that once a certain �peak�, or a certain level of euphoria is experienced on this heroin, tolerance builds in such a way that any lesser of a peak is muted and almost impossible to enjoy. It is sort of like enjoying a really good cookie, and being almost unable to find any pleasure at all from any cookie that is not at least as good for the rest of your life. narcissist experience peak tolerance in that once they have hit a certain peak of euphoria from Supply, they lose the ability to really enjoy a peak that is any less euphoric. It will always feel inadequate, and they will feel slightly cheated and will be driven to seek more Supply of a higher quality very quickly.
Returning to the discussion at hand, having the false image they project of themselves validated then is what creates a literal drug like state (Supply) the Narcissist orients their entire existence towards obtaining. Exactly what that false self image looks like varies from narcissist to narcissist, and is heavily influenced by personal power fantasies known only to the individual narcissist. Not every narcissist thinks themselves a hero, some narcissist relish being a villain and obtain Supply by being hated. Broadly speaking then, supply can be either �positive� (adulation) or �negative� (hatred) in nature, depending upon the taste of the individual narcissist. Some narcissists need negative Supply (Martin Shkreli) and base their lives around being publicly despised, some narcissists prefer positive Supply (Trump) and base their lives around having a godlike image of themselves be acknowledged as the truth (In Trump�s case he projects an image of �SUCCESS� without any nuance beyond that), still other narcissists need a balanced mixture (Milo Yiannapolis) of both positive and negative Supply- as a result they base their lives around being worshiped by their friends and hated/feared/loathed by their enemies.

Few narcissists are ever able to obtain enough Supply to prevent ever running out, they often live their lives constantly on the prowl for whatever Supply they can scrounge, learning to be patient predators if need be. A cycle of feast and famine comes to typify the existence of a narcissist and their unending quest for Supply, which they consume the first moment they can. Given the opportunity a narcissist will gorge themselves on Supply, they will consume as much as they can whenever the opportunity presents itself, and they will spend all their time and effort looking to obtain more Supply whenever they run out. They are consumption machines without much self control, they simply indulge in their drug whenever and wherever possible. Every once in a while a narcissist will hit upon a vein of Supply that can keep them high as a kite for months strait, and presented with the opportunity a narcissist will binge without hesitation. The binge will last until either the Supply runs out (most common) or the body of the narcissist cracks under the abuse of being constantly high on brain chemicals.

Like any other drug addict on a binge, a narcissist bingeing on Supply will eventually crash. The process takes much longer than normal with a narcissist than it does with other drugs for a few reasons, but the process is just as inevitable as it is with any other addict on a binge. First off, understand that to a narcissist their body is nothing but a tool to obtain Supply, and they only care for it insomuch as it is useful towards that purpose. As a result of this a narcissist can tolerate immense pain and easily push their bodies to the point of physical collapse if it is in the service of obtaining Supply. (That is to say, all the normal internal warning bells that would cause a normal person to stop physically pushing themselves can be simply ignored by a narcissist right up until they literally lose consciousness from exhaustion.) Next, another important reason that narcissistic binge can last many months is because it is ultimately caused by the bodies normal feel good chemicals, as a result tolerance builds much more slowly and fatigue sets in at a much more gradual pace.
That said, the process is just as inevitable as it is with any other addict on a binge- tolerance will build and the consequences of inadequate sleep will weaken the body. Even with theoretically infinite Supply a narcissist will eventually crash, if from nothing else than from sheer physical exhaustion. Their bodies will at some point simply give out, and leading up to that point is a long period of the euphoria and endless energy of Supply going from a 24/7 sensation, to weakening and then sputtering out to emptiness. As a narcissist begins to crash they make mistakes much more often because they are fatigued, and they become much more aggressive in their pursuit of Supply because they don�t experience even a fraction of the peaks they used too and they are internally panicked at then prospect.

Consider for a moment that at the start of his campaign, Trump could still make tactical concessions if he overplayed his hand. Remember this moment when Trump patted Ted Cruz on the back?

Trump jumped the gun and attacked Ted Cruz too early, he was roundly rebuffed by everyone from Rush Limbaugh to Anne Coulter. Trump had enough tactical sense to abandon that tactic when it was failing him. Compare this with the present whereby Trump is sticking to his guns on the judge Curiel attack despite it backfiring- Trump has been on a binge for a year now and fatigue is setting in, he is making mistakes because he is tired.
Trump has been on the highest high of his entire life for a year solid now- as a result of the Supply he has obtained by running for President. He has probably only been sleeping 4-5 hours per night in that entire time, because he is absolutely compelled to indulge in as much Supply as he possibly can. Why is Donald Trump tweeting up a storm at 3 in the morning? Because Donald Trump is getting his before bedtime fix of Supply, and he is shooting himself up until he blacks out � like he always does. Why is Donald Trump running his campaign like he is the King and his advisers are nobles that must squabble with each other for the King�s favor? Because the whole purpose of Trump�s staff is to provide him with Supply, and nothing else. (Trump isn't building a Presidential campaign, he doesn't know how and he doesn't care.) Trump is building a group of people who will convince TRUMP that he is running a real Presidential campaign. And that is all he is capable of doing. Trump is fundamentally unable to run a real Presidential campaign, he doesn't understand the concept of it anymore than he understands Swahili.

So to understand my analysis of the situation at present with regards to Trump and to understand where Trump is going to take all this I had to get all of that out of the way first, its very important to understand exactly what a narcissist is and why they operate in the fashion that they do.

At present I perceive signs of fatigue setting in with Trump, both physical fatigue and �Peak Tolerance� as well. Trump has been on the greatest binge of narcissistic Supply in recorded history, but his body is burning out now. He cannot feel the energy or euphoria that he felt for months solid quite like he used too, and he is making unforced tactical errors because he is fatigued. Trump�s fatigue combined with his (subconscious, but real) growing fear that he can�t feel the rush of Supply anymore he will begin to lash out. Whereas Trump was very good at picking targets to fight with in the past, binge fatigue Trump is going to increasingly start to just lash out randomly. Trump the charming nice guy requires high levels of Supply in order to exist, as Trump loses both his access to Supply (Trump needs almost pure adulation, and the press is not cooperating anymore like it used too) as well as his ability to enjoy what dwindling Supply he can acquire Trump is going to spiral out of control. Gone will be the famous charisma/rapier wit and in its place will be hot rage and accusations. Trump will feel cheated on a deep and subconscious level because Trump does not understand why he isn't experiencing the rush of Supply anymore, to Trump the euphoria of Supply is his �True Self�, the birthright he is owed for being such a godlike being. The euphoria if Supply is what Donald Trump bases his sense of identity on, without access to Supply his charisma will wither. He will feel as if he has had his true self forcefully taken from him, and he will seek a target to vent his anger at. The further this goes, the more any old target will do and the less selective he will be.

Where then is all this going to end up? I�ve gotten many requests both public and private to elaborate on my thoughts on the endpoint for a Trump campaign, and I have been very reluctant to respond. At this point however I think that events are progressed enough that what I am about to say will not seem nearly as outlandish as it would have sounded 6 months ago.

Basically, at this point Trump is in a tail spin that there is no escape from, this will all end very likely with Trump in prison for inciting riots/pockets of civil unrest. Trump has bought into his own hype and has convinced himself that he is the next POTUS, he has drunk deeply of the Supply of believing that he will be the most powerful person in the world. After experiencing that, there is no more getting high on Supply for Donald J Trump ever again. That is the ultimate �peak tolerance�, no Supply will ever be enough again. Trump is basing his life right now on creating an illusion that convinces primarily himself that he is leading a populist revolt against a corrupt political system, and Trump has already promised himself that he will be the amazing hero that sweeps into power and sets things right with but a wave of his talented hands. There is no plan for Trump beyond the expectation that he is the next POTUS, he already feels entitled too it, it already is a possession to him. It belongs to him and no one else. When it is taken away from him, he will react like the manchild addict that he is, he will incite violence.

I wish it were not so, but I honestly cannot conceive of any scenario whereby Trump loses without trying to start a civil war. I�m not kidding, I think he will try to start one. I�m certain he won�t come close to succeeding, but he is going be deluded enough to think he can win, angry and entitled enough to try, and it will be the only path to power (Supply) he will see at that point. On top of that, once his defeat is official, shitloads of his supporters + significant portions of the militia movement will be calling for open violence anyways, he will just be echoing what his most vociferous supporters want.

What happens after that is hard to predict, because it is hard to know exactly when Trump�s full meltdown will come. It could be election night, it could be after he gets humiliated by Hillary Clinton on live television while 50+ million people watch. (We could see a full narcissistic Rage on the debate stage, Trump physically moving towards Hillary while calling her a oval office and threatening to have her killed is the most extreme scenario here but it has a real chance of happening.) It could be when the GOP does something at the RNC to assert its power over him in some way. Any of these scenario�s are possible, and there are certainly scenario�s that would trigger his full meltdown that I can�t begin to guess at.

What happens when Trump does call for violence will depend on what the exact circumstances are that surround the situation when it happens as well as how much those calls are echoed. Various Christian church�s are openly agitating/preparing themselves for civil unrest, and they are being openly egged on by their leaders. See these videos :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjjfTbzo3Ic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsY09CJkX3g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrPtz4-Ag0A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGExtHuLtM4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4iGkbGso3E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaeJafw9Jms

We also have a situation where elected officials are doing the same thing. See Michele Fiore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw_HUHOtGM4

Over time we can reasonably expect this trend of all-but-openly inciting violence to continue and progressively worsen as the Trump campaign drags on.

So to conclude then we have a coming situation where a leader of an extremist political faction is going to be rebuffed from power and will likely react with calls for violence, and those calls are very likely to be echoed by an unpredictable number of religious leaders and elected officials. What happens then is impossible to say, who knows how many nutballs are really willing to answer the call and how many are just talk? Most of course are just talk, but there may be as many as a few thousand spread across the US that are willing to take it past talk if presented with the right circumstances.

I cannot really begin to guess what will happen once Trump�s meltdown occurs, nor can I really anticipate when his meltdown will happen at this point, although I might be able to spot the final warning signs right before it happens. I only hope that Trump continues to discredit himself as much as possible, the more his antics shake off his less hardcore supporters, the fewer supporters that will be potentially swept up into the inevitable endgame of all this.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 02:03

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Quorum posted:

Good news everyone, it's time for the Libertarian Town Hall live on CNN! Soon you too can watch CNN implicitly validate yet another stupid as gently caress ideology by refusing to challenge its excesses.

How long until CNN is finally run into the ground by Jeff Zucker?

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 02:25

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Kilroy posted:

any map that has AZ as being more likely to go to the dems than OH and FL, and then VA as leans GOP, is total poo poo-tier and to be ignored

Electoral-vote.com is the original 538 and started up in 2004. The methodology is piss-simple. The guy who runs the site just uses whatever the most recent state-level poll is and displays it on the map. That's it.

AZ is shown as flipping because the latest AZ poll had a small Hillary lead.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 15:01

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Evil Fluffy posted:

That site has Virginia as "barely GOP" so whomever made it is out of their drat mind. I'm pretty sure Clinton has lead Trump by several points in every poll for that state and currently sits around +5 in VA.

Clinton's looking at a minimum of 300ish EVs even if she loses Florida and Ohio. She could easily end up with a 350+ EV victory by taking those states and a few of the other tossups.

It cites a July 27th RABA Research poll that was Trump +4.

Electoral-vote is not a sophisticated model, nor does it claim to be. It's literally just "who leads in the most recent poll of the state?" It doesn't take into account pollster bias, trends, quality, etc. It's incredibly simple by design.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 18:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Noam Chomsky posted:

I already posted a few sources that call out the 700,000 jobs lost from just the trade deficit with Mexico.

If corporations can do whatever they want then why do they lobby for these trade agreements?

I can't quite figure out why so many posters are ultra pro-NAFTA. You guys must own a ton of stock.

Also, again, no one has talked about getting those jobs back, but rather keeping the jobs that are left.

Goons: leftists until we start talking about trade policy. What a loving joke.

Actually free trade is good and gently caress protectionism. I like having nice goods everyone can afford, not just the super rich.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 19:11

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Taerkar posted:

Look at all of you hyper capitalists railing so hard against Full Communism Now!

You'll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes.

The revolution is never coming because these are the people advocating for "the revolution":

http://www.theonion.com/article/marxists-apartment-a-microcosm-of-why-marxism-does-1382

that is, they are worthless losers who can't actually accomplish anything.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 19:12

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Taerkar posted:

There are some rather amusing similarities between objectivists and hardcore socialists.

horseshoe theory proven again!

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 19:21

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Noam Chomsky posted:

You don't think part of NAFTA's purpose was to make offshoring easier so that corporations could get access to cheaper labor and new markets?

Are you aware of the concept of comparative advantage and David Ricardo's work on trade?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

quote:

In a famous example, Ricardo considers a world economy consisting of two countries, Portugal and England, which produce two goods of identical quality. In Portugal, the a priori more efficient country, it is possible to produce wine and cloth with less labor than it would take to produce the same quantities in England. However, the relative costs of producing those two goods differ between the countries.

Hours of work necessary to produce one unit
Country Cloth Wine
England 100 120
Portugal 90 80

In this illustration, England could commit 100 hours of labor to produce one unit of cloth, or produce 5/6 units of wine. Meanwhile, in comparison, Portugal could commit 90 hours of labor to produce one unit of cloth, or produce 9/8 units of wine. So, Portugal possesses an absolute advantage in producing cloth due to fewer labor hours, and England has a comparative advantage due to lower opportunity cost.

In the absence of trade, England requires 220 hours of work to both produce and consume one unit each of cloth and wine while Portugal requires 170 hours of work to produce and consume the same quantities. England is more efficient at producing cloth than wine, and Portugal is more efficient at producing wine than cloth. So, if each country specializes in the good for which it has a comparative advantage, then the global production of both goods increases, for England can spend 220 labor hours to produce 2.2 units of cloth while Portugal can spend 170 hours to produce 2.125 units of wine. Moreover, if both countries specialize in the above manner and England trades a unit of its cloth for 5/6 to 9/8 units of Portugal's wine, then both countries can consume at least a unit each of cloth and wine, with 0 to 0.2 units of cloth and 0 to 0.125 units of wine remaining in each respective country to be consumed or exported. Consequently, both England and Portugal can consume more wine and cloth under free trade than in autarky.

No one is nefariously trying to run people out of jobs; they're trying to make sure America focuses on the industries in which we have a comparative labor advantage. That is not low-skills manufacturing. All that NAFTA did was make the transition go faster by making it easier to procure goods made outside of America. Goods that the other countries happened to have a comparative advantage in.

Free trade benefits everyone on the aggregate.

This is basic, Econ 101 kind of stuff.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 19:59

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Civilized Fishbot posted:

thank you for posting the true facts

the issue is just how we make sure that it's actually the case that everyone wins, instead of 'the average person' winning in the sense that one guy makes a billion dollars and a thousand people lose a thousand dollars

Agreed. Everyone wins in the long run but if you lost your job due to a trade deal that is pretty lovely. Eventually the labor market will sort itself out, but that is cold comfort if you're 50 years old and have done nothing but work on an assembly line. The solution isn't "NO FREE TRADE" but "help out the people who are temporarily hurt".

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:04

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

RiotGearEpsilon posted:

But those aggregate benefits are being disproportionately claimed by the high-finance types who facilitate the trade, leaving the working population at a disadvantage. What good is a more efficient aggregate balance of trade if all the efficiency gains are snatched up by rent-seekers?

[citation needed]

Seriously, you need some proof behind that. Compare the price of say, a car between 1990 and today. When you factor in inflation, car prices have actually declined over the last 2.5 decades. Most people in America buy cars, so there's a benefit right there. If you're only spending $18k in 2016 dollars on a new car instead of $35k in 2016 dollars, that's a benefit.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:07

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

RiotGearEpsilon posted:

I'm gonna level with you: I don't actually have a strong opinion about the TPP. I just like formulating arguments for things. I apologize for wasting your time; you showed up with actual data and I have nothing that can match that.

Thanks for being honest. I enjoy arguing too, but if someone's got numbers and I don't I'll back down.

poo poo, look at the discussion we had in this thread a few months ago about my (terrible) idea for some sort of technocracy where there are no elections and bureaucrats rule. People jumped all over me on that and I saw how laughably dumb my idea was and dropped it.

:hfive:

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:11

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

A Winner is Jew posted:

Forums poster axeil, forums poster axeil, please report to the D&D reeducation thread for processing.

Oh poo poo they found me! Quick run! Please don't send me to C-SPAM! :ohdear:

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:14

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Trabisnikof posted:

I didn't check, but I'm pretty sure the mechanism is trade retaliation just like with other forbidden trade practices. TPP is the first free trade treaty to treat labor and environmental costs as real costs and failure to enforce those costs is a forbidden subsidy.

So for example what would happen is say, US rubber belt makers will complain to the US trade rep that the rubber belt makers in Laos are cheating by not enforcing waste water laws, the US brings it up in trade arbitration and a tarriff is set that makes it no longer worth while to cut that corner.

This is a well used mechanism for other complex trade relationships, so once again, not perfect but still groundbreaking.

Yeah, factoring externalities into trade agreements is a huge, huge step forward. I doubt we'll ever truly get a tax on goods/labor that accounts for externalities because of political reasons, but if we can somehow get enforcement on trade goods that'd be a huge step forward in environmental and international labor protection. The regulations in TPP aren't really aimed at the US, they're aimed at Vietnam, Laos, etc. to ensure they follow the rules.

Also, can we talk for a bit about how mindblowing it is that we are on the cusp of a trade agreement with Vietnam!? 40 years ago we were bombing the crap out of each other and now we're at the point we're negotiating free trade agreements.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:18

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

A Winner is Jew posted:

Worse.

You're headed to the UKMT thread.

Not like this...not like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGc-iPc-9dE

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:20

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

theflyingorc posted:

Wait until you hear about Japan!

Touche.

The point is, I really like global trade (in addition to the comparative advantage bit), because it also helps us not blow each other up. If old enemies can become, if not quite friends, than at least cooperatives in a generation, it helps prove how trade can keep the world a safer place.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 20:27

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Noam Chomsky posted:

TPP is mostly about containing China. Maybe that helps Americans and maybe it doesn't. Helping most Americans isn't at the forefront of anyone's mind who is negotiating the TPP, though. If you own stock or have a pension fund that does then maybe you benefit.

You keep saying this stuff, yet you have no evidence or statistics to back it up.

Did you read what I posted on comparative advantage? Do you have any kind of argument to back this up that relies on facts instead of conjecture or saying scary boogyman words?

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 21:00

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

A Winner is Jew posted:

So in other news...

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/761291126166855680

Republican party

so does this mean McCain and Ayotte are about to un-endorse Trump?

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 21:27

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

zoux posted:

Yeah one of Kasich's staffers posted about travelling to IN with McCain to campaign for a desperate Mike Pence for Congress.

Jesus christ. The Trump wing of the GOP has no morals or scruples. How can you leave someone out to dry like that?

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 21:30

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

A Winner is Jew posted:

I mean... have you just ignored all the reports of Trump leaving contractors holding the bag over the years on his properties?

Trump doing that is par for the course. But Pence?

drat. I wonder what its like watching you set your own political career on fire to please a narcissistic child?

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 21:33

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Noam Chomsky posted:

At least I posted some. More than you have done.

I posted a very basic argument about the utility of free trade with examples and facts that you have still yet to respond to.

Get off your high horse.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 21:34

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Pakled posted:

There's no way it's gonna last until election day, but god, that would be the best. I can't wait til my state turns blue.

It...could. If Trump is polling at 0-1% among black voters and the not-insane Republicans jump ship she could absolutely win Georgia.

# ¿ Aug 5, 2016 19:33

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Mel Mudkiper posted:

Well yeah but its fun to ride the election coaster wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

I Want To Get Off Mr. Silver's Wild Ride

# ¿ Aug 5, 2016 20:04

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Mel Mudkiper posted:

This thread has shown me the two fanbases which care the most about politics are Seahawks and Eagles fans

Cheering for a Clinton victory is the only time Eagles fans are going to see something they cheer for win a national championship.

:smith:

# ¿ Aug 5, 2016 20:16

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

greatn posted:

Hell, do a GoFundMe

I will contribute the the SA poll GoFundMe.

It will be the first successful crowd project SA has ever done.

# ¿ Aug 5, 2016 22:51

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Visceral Realism posted:

It was a bit of perfect storm--he started with a boost of popularity due to media markets bleeding over from IL, and then the long primary forced him to build a pretty good ground game there to beat Hillary, which he pretty much kept intact until the election. The biggest thing to remember was that Obama's 2008 was steeped in a lot of language of bipartisanship, and for a while there was a decent bloc of moderate republicans that liked him, although that faded with Wright et al. He hung onto a a chunk of them though and that kept it close enough that big turnout in Gary, Indianapolis, South Bend, Bloomington and Evansville could get him over the top.

I think being good friends with Dick Luger also helped.

There aren't any more Republicans left like him :smith:

# ¿ Aug 5, 2016 22:53

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 13:56

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

DemeaninDemon posted:

A remember a while back goons donated five figures to permaban someone. I think it was towards a school or Haiti or something.

Oh I forgot about Matenwa. Yeah, that was pretty successful. I still get emails about those kids :unsmith: