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1-800-DOCTORB posted:Plus released felons who can now vote. Yeah I think this has definitely been understated in terms of impact. You're looking at 1m-odd newly eligible voters (actively being registered by voting rights orgs) who are demographically heavily Dem leaning due to the insanely racist justice system. Given that state-wide races in 2018 were decided on margins of less than 100k, that enfranchisement alone would have likely tipped Florida blue, all else being equal. And of course all else is definitely not equal!
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Jun 16, 2020 19:54
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eke out posted:unfortunately it's dramatically complicated by the ongoing attempt to stop anyone who owes any money to any court for any reason from being able to vote. i'm maybe more optimistic than most that a lot of people can still be registered, but they will successfully dampen the number of registrations by making it all so confusing We are there; the state's request for a hold on that order allowing indebted felons to register was denied: https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/06/15/florida-judge-refuses-to-put-felons-voting-rights-decision-on-hold/ They will obviously appeal but in the meantime felons can register and it seems clear to me the decision will stand given the strength of the initial opinion. Maybe someone with relevant legal experience could comment?
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Jun 16, 2020 21:32
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I confess I've not being following it super closely and I have no legal expertise, but it doesn't seem to me at all guaranteed that the state will even get its en banc hearing. The 11th denied a previous request for an en banc hearing against the original 17-felon injunction after all. Not sure if there's any grounds to think they wouldn't deny it again for the trial result?
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Jun 16, 2020 21:54
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But it's essentially the same decision, using the same legal reasoning and being appealed using the same arguments. Surely the chudges on the 11th could have anticipated this trial result and granted en banc to the injunction appeal to give themselves cover later on? If they grant it now there's not even the merest pretense of fairness.
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Jun 16, 2020 22:12
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StratGoatCom posted:I wouldn't jump the gun at this point about Biden's victory. Biden is absolutely benefiting hugely from factors outside his control. But though it's possible the protests may fade from the news cycle before November, COVID and the accompanying economic disaster absolutely will not, and it's Trump's response to that which is really killing his chances. I just don't see a pivot ever coming, and I also don't see Biden making a big enough error to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. All he has to do is keep quiet except for the occasional platitude and not pick a Republican as VP.
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Jun 21, 2020 17:07
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Biden is definitely slower and more frail than he was, but he is still capable of completing coherent sentences and mostly sticking to the script, which means he automatically wins any debate vs Trump. The only people who think Biden will 'lose' the debates are turbo-chuds and accelerationists desperately insisting that there's no chance he can be elected. All he has to do is stand there as Trump rambles and respond with "c'mon, man" or similar.
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Jun 21, 2020 18:47
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canepazzo posted:The second part of the Siena/Upshot polls on NYT are out: That's insanely bad for Trump, obviously. He could still pull it back I think, if he just shut the gently caress up and stick to reading out teleprompter platitudes, but clearly he's not gonna do that. The only things that might have a chance of flipping the race right now are 1) Miracle vaccine/treatment breakthrough followed by economic rebound through November. Unlikely. 2) Some kind of major Biden scandal or fuckup. In the absence of any further credible accusers coming forward, I don't see what that could be. Biden is a known quantity.
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Jun 25, 2020 11:04
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The only people who think Trump is capable of literally any level of strategic thinking are insane Q-Chuds, deluded accelerationists and idiot op-ed writers.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:28
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden I already mentioned those. It's entirely possible that Trump will still manage to eke out an EC win, but if he does so it will have nothing to do with any good strategic decision on his part. He is simply incapable of making them.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:40
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Charlz Guybon posted:Didn't we just go over a big article and analysis where all the GOP pundits and campaign managers said this kind of thing was unlikely to unthinkable? That the party and electorate had changed too much since 1996. Collins is a special case since she needs to convince some Maine Democrats to split the ticket in order to win. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gardner do something similar in Colorado.
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Jul 8, 2020 10:56
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Ague Proof posted:Trump tweet incoming. Trump making GBS threads on her will probably help her more than it hurts. I doubt he'll bother though unless she actively criticises him, which I doubt she is dumb enough to do.
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Jul 8, 2020 10:59
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That district went +6 Trump in 2016 and +3 for Beto in 2018. It's +9 R according to the Cook PVI. It's mostly suburbs, wealthier/more educated than average and is exactly the kind of district you'd expect to be swinging D given the trends we're seeing elsewhere.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:56
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:its good news no matter what as long as biden doesn't die. Actually, strictly strategically speaking, I think Biden dying would be neutral-to-good, especially if his death can be firmly pinned on Trump. That would only increase anti-Trump sentiment, which as we know is the main factor driving the current large Dem polling lead up and down the ballot. And Harris, while not exactly a committed leftist, is certainly more progressive than Biden. Chinese Gordon fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Oct 2, 2020 |
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Oct 2, 2020 17:08
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Grouchio posted:My dad's more concerned that they'd delay the elections because of this. Delaying the election requires the consent of Congress.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:15
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This is still the numbers thread. I also think it's fair enough to post about the President being hospitalised 'for tests' - in the same way that Boris was hospitalised 'for tests' - in the context of how it'll affect the race.
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Oct 2, 2020 22:36
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Sarcastro posted:It's been what - 17 hours since the release of the positive test news? And in that short time we've had: I think it's fairly obvious that he's been positive for much longer than they've been letting on.
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Oct 2, 2020 22:45
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Spiritus Nox posted:
In the event Trump bites it Pence's only shot is to cast himself as the true heir to Trump's legacy. Even if he did actually possess more charisma than a particularly homophobic plank of wood, any attempt to distance or differentiate himself will cause at least some of the base to stay home in disgust and without them Pence loses badly. I don't see him doing anything other than hugging Trump's bloated corpse as close as possible.
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Oct 2, 2020 23:19
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FMguru posted:Those post-debate numbers are hilarious when you remember the live debate thread, where everyone was convinced that Biden was completely blowing it and looking weak by allowing Trump to steamroller him. Regular reminder that SA users are not representative of the overall non-chud electorate and that the loudest brokebrained Dems Bad posters fortunately even less so.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:41
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:
The best part is that's still a 2 point swing to Biden from their last poll. Also if Trump doesn't retweet that it's safe to say he's comatose. Chinese Gordon fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Oct 4, 2020 |
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Oct 4, 2020 16:36
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one of these polls again that MAGA is pushing to distract from polls that came out today
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:that poll also corrects for 'shy trump voters', btw Well obviously. It's a garbage unrated pollster whose sole purpose is to churn out bullshit polls to muddy the waters in an even more obviously fraudulent way than Zogby/Rasmussen. The point is that even *they* don't show a sympathy bump for Trump.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:49
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exquisite tea posted:Things do look pretty bad for Trump right now, but it remains to be seen whether Biden's advantage is part of a longer trajectory or just reactive. Trump should probably be feeling pretty good that Biden's only gotten ~2 points on him in the national polling rather than it becoming far worse, at least at this point in time. Everything about the last 72 hours has been so erratic and unpredictable that I can't imagine anything settling back down until election day. Remember that the race has remained remarkably, *unprecedently* stable at Biden +6-8 for the last 5-6 months despite all the crazy things that have been happening on a daily basis. At this point there's no reason to suspect that anything will markedly shift the needle short of the actual death of one or both candidates.
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Oct 5, 2020 10:58
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Petey posted:I used to think, even after the first debate, that Biden/Harris couldn’t afford to pull out of future debates because it would make them look weak at the margins. However, with every Republican in Trump’s circle aggressively shedding coronavirus, and the massive swing in polling we seem to be seeing toward the Biden camp, I am beginning to believe that it is both politically and physiologically prudent for Biden/Harris to pull out of future debates citing health precautions and the refusal of the Trump/Pence team to take it seriously. Personally I think the best strategy is for Biden to say he'll do the debates as long as appropriate precautions are taken. Either Trump has to pull out because he's literally comatose, he insists on doing it despite being extremely unwell and just looks pathetic, or he's somehow recovered but fucks up the debate anyway due to being Donald J Trump. Also, Town Hall format suits Biden better than the previous clusterfuck format, especially if Trump has to fume and wheeze from behind a plastic barrier. Chinese Gordon fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Oct 6, 2020 |
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Oct 6, 2020 12:27
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Nessus posted:Frankly they ought to cancel the town hall format entirely if they don't do it virtually (and I'm sure Biden would be OK with that). Biden can even easily and accurately spin it: he can take his own risks, but it's not fair to all those people at the event or their families, or their workplaces, or their workplaces families, or any stray Senators any of them happen to hang out with. That's actually a good point. Much easier to spin it when there's an audience also potentially at risk.
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Oct 6, 2020 12:41
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One especially encouraging thing to note here is that the judge who tossed this horseshit was actually a Trump appointee.
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Oct 10, 2020 23:15
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Rigel posted:Biden will need every bit of that incumbency advantage in 2024, and he may end up being one of the least talented politicians to get two terms from being handed Trump as his opponent, followed by a bounceback from plague/great depression #2. Don't forget the very real possibility that Trump or one of his offspring will be the nominee in 2024.
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Oct 10, 2020 23:23
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Pick posted:
This isn't really true at all. Trump has always been extremely unpopular and whoever the Dems ran would have had a better than 50/50 shot of winning even without the Covid clusterfuck. That's the whole reason the primary field was such a ridiculous clown car.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:26
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Opinium are one of the better UK pollsters; As noted, they got the last GE pretty much spot on. There are obviously big differences between the UK / US electorate and electoral systems and Biden +17 is certainly an outlier, but Opinium are a proper firm and not a fly-by-night partisan outfit.
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Oct 13, 2020 17:01
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Joe Biden is definitely 100% instinctually against court packing and really doesn't want to do it on a personal level. That doesn't mean he won't support doing it if the party as a whole is in favour.
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Oct 13, 2020 17:07
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PerniciousKnid posted:Does he believe them over his sycophants? He's had no problem making GBS threads on Fox News whenever they've been insufficiently detached from reality. I'm sure he can rationalise it away as Fake News and flip over to OANN, where he's never not the greatest leader in human history.
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Oct 13, 2020 23:59
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vyelkin posted:I think it's a two-part play. This seems about right. I'd also suggest that when the boxes are removed it allows the GOP to rile up its base by screaming about how the evil Dem state government is suppressing their vote.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:17
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Sarcastro posted:Trump will lose California by millions of votes regardless of what happens with these fake dropoff boxes, so, uh... best of luck getting that controversy to matter, GOP! (edit: I know "controversy" is being used in the legal sense here.) I think this is mostly about the California GOP trying to steal a few Orange Country US House seats back, but I'm sure they are hoping it will add to a national narrative too.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:34
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Does HR1 include universal vote by mail for federal elections? If not, that seems like something that should be in there assuming it is constitutional, which I think it is?
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Oct 15, 2020 16:27
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. They will doubtless attempt it but the cat is out of the bag now. The base has been radicalised by 45 years of increasingly unhinged propaganda and now Trump has given them a taste of full-fat racism they are not going to vote for another Romney type. The 2024 nominee will likely be a Trump family member or some deranged chud businessman or TV personality.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:24
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brugroffil posted:lots and lots of catholics do contraception Yeah Tradcath nutbars like ACB are very much the minority in the US, and even more so in Catholic parts of Europe.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:00
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Biden +11 in Marist's (A+ rated, live caller) October poll, up 2 from last month.
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Oct 16, 2020 00:57
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Yeah it was actually Biden +11 national, not Florida. That's still an excellent result as it's up 6 from their September national poll. Would be interesting to see if they do put out a Florida poll since their last had Biden +1
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Oct 16, 2020 13:12
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Murgos posted:If Trump plunges through his 43% favorable floor with republicans he’s in danger, the party is in danger, of more than just losing his election. Trump could spend from here to the election communicating entirely in all-caps tweeted racial slurs - causing him to drop to 37% in the polls - and ACB would still be confirmed. He is now entirely irrevelant to the confirmation process, which itself is the culmination of the GOP's decades-long attempt to cement minority rule. If there are 50 living R senators on October 26th, ACB is getting confirmed.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:27
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On the other hand, Dems are actually *returning* ballots over GOP at a greater than two-to-one ratio .quote:
This is a handy site to have bookmarked. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
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Oct 16, 2020 21:54
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It's a display error on 538:quote:PRRI developed two likely voter models to measure potential support for each candidate under two turnout scenarios. If voter turnout looks similar to 2016 (55% turnout), the survey finds Biden besting Trump by 14 percentage points (54% to 40%). If voter turnout is higher (70% turnout), as multiple indicators suggest is likely, Biden leads Trump by 18 percentage points (56% to 38%).
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Oct 19, 2020 12:55
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Actually that +14/18 PRRI poll was done a week ago. I think it's extremely unlikely Biden will actually win 14-18 but it's certainly not completely absurd given other polling, and 538 seems to rate the pollster fairly highly.
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Oct 19, 2020 13:17
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