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Rachel Shabi is rapidly becoming my favourite journalist in this quagmire. From last week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mw8aH-uUP4 Miftan posted:Can I join the Labour Party if I'm not a UK citizen? I am a resident and I'd like to help out Corbs if I can. Yes you can.
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Jul 3, 2016 11:23
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Baron Corbyn posted:Nah. The chicken coup plotters have given Corbyn more time to consider his position. Polly Toynbee says their challenger has to be Angela Eagle and not Owen Smith because Welsh people aren't allowed to be Prime Minister. Andrea Leadsom is basically a stereotypical American republican. Polly Toynbee, of course, is an unbias commentator with good form on judging the outcome of Labour leadership elections. 
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Jul 4, 2016 12:03
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TinTower posted:This does make Nicola Sturgeon the longest serving major party leader now. Ruth Davidson?
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Jul 4, 2016 13:06
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Pissflaps posted:More relevantly, polling today shows Labour far behind where they were at the same stage after 2010 (leading by between 5 and 10 points) which means that come polling day, Labour is heading for an absolute disaster. I agree that the PLP are damaging Labour's chances of success.
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Jul 4, 2016 13:13
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Pissflaps posted:Are we now back to pretending that Corbyn can win a general election after all? Normally there's a consensus that he cannot, only a difference of opinion over whether that matters or not. I think the complete and utter mess that is the Labour leadership coup means that Labour cannot win the next general election under any leader. The PLP's complete incompetence has destroyed the only real argument they had for him going because who the hell is going to trust that bunch of jokers to run a country if this is how they handle a leadership struggle. It's telling that the anti-Corbyn numbers in Labour voters/members look much better when it's a nebulous "other" candidate (i.e. they can project their ideal candidate into the answer) but dissipates into 20+ point margins of victory for Corbyn when they actually put any name to them. This was all utterly predictable and has shown that the chief architects of the coup are driven by sheer animosity towards Corbyn and the left rather than the pragmatic concerns of being A Government In WaitingTM. The fact is that they did not want a win under Corbyn at any cost and are burning down the Labour party instead.
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Jul 4, 2016 13:32
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CoolCab posted:I think in the abstract "the polls were wrong before" is not a very good argument for dismissing all polls forever. It was only a story because, in contrast to expectations, they were wrong. A rational reason for being sceptical is that polls rely good weightings for their accuracy because a representative sample is impossible due to selection bias. Good weightings rely on calibrations to previous election results. As such during times of political turmoil it is very unlikely that the weightings are accurate because people's opinions are relatively fluid and more likely to deviate from standard demographic groupings. Therefore poll results are unlikely to be very accurate. Case in point the Brexit vote was underestimated because it involved high turnout in a demographic that usually had low turnout.
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Jul 4, 2016 13:55
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Welp
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Jul 4, 2016 14:23
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Damnit beaten.
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Jul 4, 2016 14:24
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Breath Ray posted:Well I think its the right thing to do then. If they have all these MPs and stuff it should be easy to become the new official opposition. Good luck retaining those seats at the next election. And funding your new political party with a fraction of the member base and no union funding.
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Jul 4, 2016 15:37
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I just requested Betfair open up markets on Labour deselections.
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Jul 5, 2016 01:19
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I've requested Betfair open an exchange market on Labour MP deselections. They're looking into it.
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Jul 5, 2016 21:37
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Jose posted:sounds like leadsom just gave a dire speech that might have hosed up her chances We're doomed.
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Jul 7, 2016 10:37
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Jose posted:I know someone who works for leadsom And that person was Albert Einstein! *drops mic and walks off*
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Jul 7, 2016 17:14
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vodkat posted:Is anyone hoping Leadsom might win because she will be an ineffectual PM who backbenchers will constantly rebel against whereas May will rule with an iron fist that will make Thatcher look like a soft liberal? Kinda. I expect there'd be a GE if Leadsom wins but not if May wins.
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Jul 7, 2016 18:12
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So how significant is it Falconer hung Blair out to dry re: Iraq?
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Jul 7, 2016 23:30
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Can't decide if I prefer French or Russian solutions to royals.
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Jul 8, 2016 19:15
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Pissflaps posted:If somebody can't find 51 Labour MPs prepared to back them as leader then they'll probably not be able to do the job properly. Some of them won't be MPs after this parliament so I'm not gonna worry too much about it.
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Jul 9, 2016 20:29
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Guys Prescott is sticking it to Blair. YES.
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Jul 9, 2016 21:38
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Tesseraction posted:Well link that poo poo! Bloody hell you lazy git! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-blair-forced-illegal-war-8387288 quote:Tony Blair forced us into an illegal war, claims former Deputy PM John Prescott But he might be talking about a different Tony Blair I dunno.
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Jul 9, 2016 21:42
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TinTower posted:The lack of a physical border between the North and the South is important to the security of both the Irish and British states as it provides the Irish minority of Northern Ireland the freedom of movement within the entirety of their cultural home, a linchpin of the Good Friday Agreement. Yep. Saying "it's never been about the border" is a dumb statement to make when there's never been border controls. The prospect of border controls between NI and ROI is a massive step backwards and basically playing russian roulette with the status quo.
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Jul 9, 2016 22:00
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Bryter posted:I'm not going to be free to move between NI and the republic despite being a citizen of both Ireland and Britain? And SF are going to say "gently caress our plans for the Dáil and gently caress being a party of government in the north lads, we're picking up the armalites again"? Nobody has said "The Troubles" will be replayed in the exact same fashion as before. But you'd be crazy not to think that there won't be a concerted political push for Irish unification and nobody knows how that would play out. Let us not forget that "lol Brexit that won't happen" turned into Jo Cox being gunned down in the street by a fascist, leave winning the referendum, and a massive rise in hate crime and racist abuse. So I'm afraid that I don't find "lol you guys are just scaremongering it'll all be ok" a very convincing argument to make wrt. the NI situation.
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Jul 9, 2016 22:47
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Bryter posted:Again, you're going to have to explain how and why a concerted political push for Irish unification will reignite the troubles or lead to the "utter carnage" the original tweet envisaged. Forgive me for not finding "well sometimes people are wrong, so maybe you're wrong" a very convincing argument. Again, you are the only person to mention "the troubles". The fact is that nobody knows what the post-Brexit NI/ROI border situation will look like so both sides will be making strong claims regardless of their likelihood and just like in Scotland over Indyref or the UK over EURef this will be very divisive. What I think is certain is that the concerns of the Northern Irish will be secondary to the UK government given that it will have too much already on its plate over Brexit and the pro-Brexit English pretty much don't give a poo poo. Can I prove it'll be a disaster? Do I know exactly what this disaster will look like? No. But these are the kind of conditions that disasters thrive in.
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Jul 9, 2016 23:30
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Captain Fargle posted:It's Northern Ireland. You already know what a disaster is going to look like and that's exploding cars. I'm not convinced the old IRA skillsets/supply chains are anywhere near operational. I wouldn't be surprised at young angry men fighting and killing each other in drunken brawls and a big dose of sectarian intimidation and vandalism though.
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Jul 9, 2016 23:39
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Bryter posted:hahaha "okay, maybe they won't start bombing each other but imagine the bar fights!!" I think you're missing the loving point. Or should we be dismissing the increase in crime associated with the toxic atmosphere around the Brexit campaign because its not "proper organised" terrorism?
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Jul 10, 2016 00:26
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Crowsbeak posted:So if the PLP loopholes Corbyn out of the contest what are the chances of Moementum and the Unions just forming a new party? Also how long till the labour party is extinct? Zero chance that the unions would endorse forming a new party.
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Jul 10, 2016 00:38
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Zohar posted:One thing I find strange about the "parliamentary road to socialism" argument as someone who studies the history of socialism (among other things) is that Corbyn and the bulk of his supporters are not revolutionaries (or syndicalists for that matter). They are very much parliamentary socialists -- they believe in achieving socialism through parliamentary government. What they are worried about is not Parliament itself, but the unrepresentativeness of parliament as it is presently constituted. They're far closer to the original spirit of the Labour movement in that respect than the anti-Corbyn group: crack open the 1906 manifesto of the Labour Representation Committee and you'll see the second sentence is "The House of Commons is supposed to be the people's House, and yet the people are not there." That complaint applies just as well today. Yes several hundred thousand people who are members of the Labour party have also reached the same conclusion.
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Jul 10, 2016 01:30
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Pissflaps posted:A poll of 775 people out of 1.4 million has a margin of error of 3.52%. So yes, Len, it can. coffeetable posted:suppose each person has a probability p of supporting corbyn. then the number of 'i support corbyn' answers out of n phonecalls will follow a binomial distribution. you can approximate the binomial with a normal with the same mean and variance: This all assumes a representative sample. Without knowing in detail the demographics of the union membership it's impossible to know if the pollsters weightings are at all accurate. Furthermore we've seen in other polling on Labour members that Corbyn isn't doing well at the moment against a generic "other" candidate but as soon as you put a name to them they prefer him over them. I bet Eagle's number would be pathetic.
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Jul 12, 2016 09:53
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Toplowtech posted:The other better interpretation of that data is that people who don't enjoy the bourgeois benefits of Europe on a professional or touristic level didn't see any personal reason to vote Remain so they just voted Leave. A similar pattern emerged during IndyRef in Scotland. The people I knew that favoured independence generally were less well off so weren't frightened by the economic risks and had relatively little "British" social capital, i.e. all their friends were Scottish, they had never lived outside Scotland etc. I think that although they didn't consider themselves particularly British the concept of other people feeling is fairly easily understood and a lot less abstract than being in the EU and considering yourself European and so that's why we didn't see the big swing to the status quo in the EU referendum like we did for the independence referendum.
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Jul 12, 2016 10:13
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CORBSTER ON BALLOT!
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Jul 12, 2016 19:48
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Eagle faces a No Confidence vote at her CLP next Friday. *popcorn.gif*
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Jul 12, 2016 19:52
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I can only imagine someone isn't reading the tweets before retweeting lol.
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Jul 13, 2016 09:20
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NoneMoreNegative posted:Nature abhors a flapuum. 
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Jul 13, 2016 10:36
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If this is how Labour voters view Eagle and Smith I wonder what the membership margins are like.
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Jul 18, 2016 10:47
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Has anyone asked Liam Fox what his strategy re: international pork markets is going to be?
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Jul 18, 2016 18:36
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I just put 2 quid on Hilary Benn and Dan Jarvis each at 999-1 on Betfair exchange just incase they really are that stupid.
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Jul 19, 2016 19:07
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:Is it me or has Corbyn been improving as a public speaker The rest of the PLP have degenerated into a shitheap so it's hard to tell really.
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Jul 19, 2016 22:12
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jiggerypokery posted:How do you go about getting your MP deselected? Do you have to petition the party in question? Rally? Attend local meetings and hurl abuse? Rules may vary between CLPs. Consult your local party.
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Jul 20, 2016 14:25
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LemonDrizzle posted:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/755752584904839168 Not quite. Lib Dems are only up 1% from GE result and actually have the most fragile vote (56% retention vs 76% Lab and 90% Con) which is amazing considering they hit 8% at the GE. It's not surprising Con retention is sky high when you consider the May takeover Thatcher mega nostalgia effect. It's clear Labour are still hurting from UKIP and are getting less of those voters back than the Tories. The real question is whether or not politics is unpredictable enough that the weightings are invalid (we already saw low socioeconomic status and youth vote underestimated in EURef)? Labour leads 47-21 amongst 18-24s and 36-29 amongst 25-49s. If brexity poor people are going to be less prone to turnout but the younger more remain/Labour leaning demographic turns out in protest at brexit/Tories then there could be a surprise in store. Also if all the 65+ mega Tories die of old age.
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Jul 20, 2016 14:36
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ronya posted:tbf there really are a lot of people who like centrism as long as it's not packaged as centrism or compromise Tbh I think mostly it's the opposite. Most people like fairly left or right ideas as long as they're packaged as centrism, nobody wants to be labelled "extreme". Wealthy people like centrism packaged as soft left because it makes themselves feel better.
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Jul 21, 2016 12:04
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TheRat posted:So this appears to be Owen Smith's poverty-experience in Surrey Wouldn't the having lived in Surrey but be that he saw how much better off people there were than in Wales? Or am I just giving him too much credit?
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Jul 21, 2016 17:17
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