shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1686723774505480192?s=20

Vox Nihili posted:

Maybe this is ruining the fun but I don't think 4,000 calories a day is all that crazy if you're doing a bunch of strenuous exercise, you burn off the excess in just a few hours of real, hard work

pnumoman posted:

I can definitely believe zucc just gets his driver to hit up the drive thru at McDonald's after his whatever MMA session instead of waiting to get back to his private chef

woke operator posted:

my neighbors are complex people with nuanced qualities and complicated lives. and im going to kill every last one of them for hte crime of living near where i bought my house

mawarannahr posted:

lol at this American Psycho bs
https://twitter.com/pantone/status/1732763287454875821?s=20
Pantone Color of the Year is one ‘you want to reach out and touch’


kinda interesting how close it is to the color of white people...

sleep with the vicious posted:

Spoke to a coworker this morning who reminded me about how the lockdowns are destroying the economy

genericnick posted:

thread title

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

i don't celebrate valentine's because i'm woke

Foobie posted:

Speaking of Kansas schools in the early 2000s they tried to make schools funded by local property taxes.

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

this is depression

skooma512 posted:

Only if I lose interest in things that used to interest me for 2 consecutive quarters

Smythe posted:

since 2000 this has been the config:

intel nvidia: normies, probably better, way better drivers, more expensive. Just Works

amd ati: edgy, badass, needs more fans, water cooler, hacked drivers, insane power if you can master it, subdue their demons. epic gamer parts.

SKULL.GIF posted:

Azuth0667 posted:

How stupid would it be to spool up a raspberry pi as an email server for personal use?

Thoguh posted:

If I was 82 I’d probably just ride it out too. if it falls in whatever, I won’t be there anymore.

Vox Nihili posted:

Oompa loompa doompety doo
I've cooked up something special for you
Oompa loompa doompety dee
If you are wise you'll hit this with me

RadiRoot posted:

just once a week? thats actually reasonable. i see nothing wrong with that.

err posted:

funds are safu
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1762896306131902674?s=46

triple sulk posted:

it would be extremely funny if coinbase got cleared out

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

wrong bitch

Engorged Pedipalps posted:

This poor surgeon, a victim of the healthcare administrator he worked for, powerless to stop himself or the machine he was a gear in

Gorson posted:

A nice kitchen is useful and the neighbors can't see it from the street. "Keeping up with the Joneses" is cars, boats, swimming pools, things that can be seen from the curb. There's no real intention to use them.

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

burritos have a ceiling of like 6/10

and that's when they put fries inside

Raskolnikov38 posted:

i'm taking doomsday econ to strange new places

Nonsense posted:

401k's are about to take a bath though

The Oldest Man posted:

my guess is he did kill himself, because they confronted him with some extremely life ruining blackmail material

The Oldest Man posted:

my guess is that he chose to kill himself rather than face exposure, not they told him "kill yourself or we make this public"

Paradoxish posted:

I don't think anything is particularly likely, I just also don't think there's any reason to imply this dude had some life ruining secrets.

i am harry posted:

….a man famously assassinated is your example?

gradenko_2000 posted:

why does baseball have "Sabermetrics" but no other sport does? [or do they?]

is it because the regimented structure of baseball allows one to reduce players to specific measurable actions, as opposed to, say, basketball, where the players are always in-motion across a variety of roles that they're playing?

euphronius posted:

I have seen no benefits to any sport due to “analytics”

SKULL.GIF posted:

Another CRE domino falls. "Transferred to a special servicer" means they defaulted.

TREPP!

quote:

Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product

Delinquencies soar as rising rates dent property resale values CRE CLO market is ‘first shoe to drop,’ says GenTrust’s Neely

By Scott Carpenter
March 19, 2024 at 4:00 AM PDT
Updated on March 19, 2024 at 10:47 AM PDT

An obscure investment product used to finance risky real estate projects is facing unprecedented stress as borrowers struggle to repay loans tied to commercial property ventures.

Known as commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations, or CRE CLOs, they bundle debt that would usually be seen as too speculative for conventional mortgage-backed securities into bonds of varying risk and return.

In just the last seven months the share of troubled assets held by these niche products has surged four-fold, by one measure, to more than 7.4%. For the hardest hit, delinquency rates are in the double digits. That’s left major players in the $80 billion market rushing to rework loans, while short sellers are ramping up attacks on publicly-traded issuers they say may be so beset by missed payments that they have little to no equity value.

The pain is part of a broader shakeout in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market, which nearly brought down New York Community Bancorp and has elicited warnings from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Yet industry observers say few products are more exposed than CRE CLOs.

That’s because they’re primarily stuffed full of short-term, floating-rate loans for properties undergoing renovations or expansions, the type of risky debt that banks or CMBS often don’t want to hold. With rising interest rates eroding resale prices for refurbished multifamily dwellings and demand for office space still tepid, many borrowers are starting to struggle to meet their obligations. That’s left a number of CRE CLO issuers — which finance the riskiest part of the structures themselves and sell off the safer pieces — already absorbing losses.

Some say the pain could eventually spread to those invested in less risky portions, too.

“The CRE CLO market is the first shoe to drop in terms of defaults in the CRE debt markets,” said Mark Neely, director of alternative investments at GenTrust, a money manager. “The loans inside CRE CLOs tend to be for transitional properties, so the borrowers are counting on reselling them before the loan matures. But today many borrowers can’t sell properties for anywhere near where they bought them.”

To be sure, the highest rated debt issued by CRE CLOs benefit from ample protection built into the structure of the securities, and analysts across the board expect those bonds to be just fine. At the bottom of the capital stack, however, it’s a different story.

Issuers have been buying time by extending maturities, letting developers pay interest with additional debt, and making other changes to loans to encourage borrowers to keep current.

Modifications often take the form of two- to three-year extensions, in exchange for which borrowers typically are required to inject more capital.

Increasingly, CRE CLO issuers are also buying out

delinquent loans via cash reserves, allowing them to avoid tripping asset-coverage tests which causes cash-flow streams to certain investors to get turned off — a mechanism designed to protect those who purchase less risky portions of the structures.

Firms bought back a record $1.3 billion of delinquent loans last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates.

“Increased stress in this market has forced managers to take unprecedented steps to protect the integrity of their CRE CLO structures,” strategists led by Chong Sin wrote in a report last month.

[...]
The share of delinquent loans in CRE CLOs from Arbor Realty Trust Inc., one of the industry’s largest issuers, touched 9.2% in January before sliding back down to 8.1% in February, according to CRED iQ data.

Its share price is down 16% year-to-date after rising 15% in 2023, while about 40% of its floating stock is currently sold short, according to data from analytics firm S3 Partners.

Arbor didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.

Arbor Chief Executive Officer Ivan Kaufman said on the company’s most recent earnings call in mid-February that it is working closely with borrowers to recapitalize deals and is looking to make new loans to keep growing the company’s balance sheet.

At least two CRE CLOs from Ready Capital, another major issuer, have already breached safety triggers, while 15% of its loans have been transferred to workout specialists known special servicers, according to data from Barclays Plc.

A spokesperson for Ready Capital declined to comment.


[...]

Just last week four CRE CLO bonds issued by Blackstone Mortgage Trust were downgraded by Morningstar DBRS because of higher expected losses on underlying loans, with the lowest-rated bond tranche cut to CCC. The downgraded bonds belong to a CLO that’s primarily backed by office properties rather than multifamily dwellings.

Short seller Carson Block in December said he was betting against the publicly traded real estate investment trust, predicting that even if the Fed lowers interest rates, losses on its loans could reach well into the billions, wiping out the trust’s equity.

In a Bloomberg TV interview Tuesday, Block said his firm has grown “more bearish” on Blackstone Mortgage Trust since late last year, citing troubles with multifamily properties.

“This kind of reminds me of 2007,” Block said.

A representative for Blackstone said via email that “the credit-rating downgrades reflect challenges in the office sector that are well understood by the market,” adding that all of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s CLO bonds are performing and making payments to investors.

is pepsi ok posted:

U.S. drops in new global happiness ranking. One age group bucks the trend

Eric Cantonese posted:

I'm not sure if this is the right thread, but I came across this Reddit thread of posters whose parents lied to them about having money for college and it's pretty bleak.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BoomersBeingFools/comments/1bikhey/did_anyone_elses_boomer_parents_say_throughout/?sort=new