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breaklaw
May 12, 2008

babypolis posted:

i dont get why rubio doesnt get more support among republicans, he seems like a pretty serviceable candidate compared to the rest. is the establishment afraid the national stage will make him look like a lil kid?

He didn't wait his turn. If Bush hadn't run this would be his turn and he would get that support.

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breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Joementum posted:

Under the definition of "serious candidate" I was using earlier to distinguish between Rick Santorum and Donald Trump, yes, he is.

Under a definition of "serious candidate" which means "capable of winning the nomination", no, he is not.

Of course he isn't. The thing I can't figure out is if his supporters actually really don't know this. It seems like Bernie himself doesn't even deny it. Even when he announced he said it was about making sure the left had a voice in the discourse or something to that effect.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Montasque posted:

His campaign also has a relatively low burn-rate and he is quietly building up a massive ground game across the south and in early states.

He is also a favorite of the talk-radio jocks who often site him as the most 'consistently conservative' of all candidates... He will pick up a big chunk of the Trump/Carson support if those candidates go away.

To me this is the biggest factor among the serious candidates, who will get Carson's voters when he steps aside? I don't think that he honestly even wants to be president, the book tour thing being a telling sign. Where will his ~20% support go? I think it will split somehow between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with little to none for Jeb.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

HappyHippo posted:

I like how republicans repeatedly accuse Clinton of trumped up bullshit, convince themselves that "where there's smoke there's fire!" decide she's "shady" and "has skeletons in her closet," and use this as the basis of further accusations. They've done this so much nobody outside the bubble gives a poo poo any more. She could probably have a few people secretly killed and get away with it because people would just assume it's just another bullshit smear campaign and tune it out.

Only the birther types really believe that she's the crime boss the Republicans try to make her out to be but, "shady", don't you think a good number of Democrats and Independents also think she's shady? I mean seriously how is she not shady? Just because she's shady and also unfairly smeared?

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
I'm not fully a non-ironic Trump supporter just yet but I'm coming around the idea more and more every day. Why? Because if Trump becomes president I believe he will be above all a disrupter.

Out of all the candidates, if they become president and have to deal with the lobbyists, the political money men, the power brokers, the banksters, the mainstream media - all of these greedy, corrupt, parasitic, interests who wield overwhelming and completely undue influence in our economy and our society, Donald Trump seems by far to be the one most likely to to tell them to go gently caress themselves and actually back up his threats with actions.

The fact that he is over 60 and a world famous multi-billionaire makes it hard to imagine anything substantial that any these people can really do for him. His status is such that he says he can't be bought off by special interests it is actually somewhat believable. The only thing he has left to achieve is a lasting legacy of being adored by the masses for Making America Great Again, and I think if given the chance he will at least attempt to take some of these fuckers down a notch if for no other reason that it'll feel great doing it, and he can write a book bragging about his war stories and body count.

I also don't believe for a second that he will actually try to build a border wall or track Muslims in a database. He is saying these these to pander to the republican base because if he talked about his actual positions he wouldn't be able to win the nomination of either party. If Trump gets the nom his pivot to the center will be the biggest pivot ever, and an actual centrist working to move the country forward and do something for the %99 is far more palatable to me than a life long corporatist elitist with nothing but lip service and platitudes for us but everything else for them.

Our politics are so broken and dysfunctional in this country that we need a major disruption, a serious shock to the system to have any hope dislodging the political and economic elites robbing us blind daily from their position of owning two branches of government and renting out the third. I had high hopes for Obama but in hindsight those were foolish and naive hopes in the first place. I'm on the verge of honestly supporting Trump because he seems to be in a better position than anyone else I've seen in my lifetime to actually start changing the system from within, simple as that.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Alter Ego posted:

This is straight-up accelerationist bullshit. You know, people DO have to live here, and after Trump triggers WWIII because Putin makes fun of his stubby fingers, it's going to make life awful difficult for average Americans.

Trump won't change squat. He is a childish, immature, spoiled brat and a thin-skinned wuss who has no real belief system other than "What will get the greatest number of cameras focused on me?"

I can see not liking Trump, but I really don't get how you can try to paint him as stupid or irrational. There is no reason to believe that he would take massively risky actions based on emotion, and no reason to believe that he won't hire good people and listen to their advice.

And his ego is part of my reason for supporting him and believing that he will try to change things. Like I said, he's had the money, he's had the power, he's had the women, the only thing left is the glory. How's he going to get to the glory if he doesn't actually deliver at least something? At least enough that he can spin to make it seem better than it is. If he's president he has no reason not to go after the hedge funds, the tax evaders, the too-big-to-fails and the "innovative banking product" bastards at a minimum. That is much more than Obama did or what Hillary would probably do.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Zelder posted:

Despite our inherent love of gold and money, I don't think trump will peel off a significant amount of the black vote. I suppose it all remains to be seen though

I think it's quite possible. Nothing like 40% or anything, but he'll probably do better than anyone else has since the Southern Strategy started. I think a lot of black men do love Bill but aren't so wild about Hillary, and not all blacks who live in Hispanic heavy areas see illegal immigrants as nothing more than fellow oppressed minorities. I think he could pull in something like 15-20%, especially after the pivot.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Intel&Sebastian posted:

This Slate interview with Rick Perlstein reminded me that at some point Trump will be in a race where he has to justify stumping on what would be the largest ethnic cleansing in modern history.

We should be shocked that he's being given a pass on it by a major party, but I'm fine with them deciding to let that one get hashed out in the general.

This. This type of poo poo right here. You wonder where all this pol\alt-right poo poo is coming from? It's poo poo like this that will only get worse wen the general starts. Trump might win 75% of the white male vote.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Venom Snake posted:

Wait are you arguing that because people are being to mean to Trump on his unprecedentedly racist, sexist, and bigoted campaign that more white men will vote for him?

I'm arguing that the American Left is going to be too stupid and stubborn to learn from Europe and all of this "people have a problem with the current state of immigration and immigrants are nazis" is only going to give the US the same result, which is basically more nazis.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
The gently caress?

What the gently caress is this?

quote:

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breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Rocks posted:

lol at people actually discussing trump's positions

the only reason everyone likes trump is because everyone is fed up of years of hearing about how banks/billionaires get away with murder while everyone else gets hosed up the rear end and ripped off. change was tried with obama and it didn't matter. can't fix the system so might as well burn it all down.

trump/rage against the machine 2016

This. Same story with Bernie and his "Political Revolution". As someone posted earlier, everyone now sees that the problem is the machine and what we need most now is a wrench. For many now it's just the question of what wrench.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Fox trying to make the story of the debate that Rubio blew everyone away.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Welp, Trump said gently caress Fox and Fox responded with gently caress Trump. I wonder if they keep this up over the weekend.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

quote:

CNN\WMUR Poll - Results from Jan 27-30

Donald Trump 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Marco Rubio 11%
John Kasich 9%
Chris Christie 8%
Jeb Bush 6%.

Bernie Sanders 57%
Hillary Clinton 34%
Martin O'Malley 1%


Story
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politics/cnn-wmur-poll-donald-trump-bernie-sanders/index.html
Raw
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/01/31/topnh2.pdf

NH

breaklaw fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Feb 1, 2016

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
~*Choirs of Angels*~

What a day! Only way that this could have been better is if Jeb! could have managed that half a point to come in third. Jeb staying in is good for Trump and in a way even for Bernie. I hope the late count puts him over bet even without that, Trump with a very solid win and Bernie with a friggin' landslide! Plus Rubio down and Christie out?! This is going to be a very, very interesting week. :)

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

a cop posted:

I know we all hate Cruz but I have a really irrational hatered of that scumbag Rubio.

I hate Rubio more because his better than average looks and speaking skills make him seem so much less hateable to other people.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

The Saurus posted:

That debate is a long way away.

We might be down to 3 by then. I think Marco will get absolutely slaughtered by both Trump and Cruz if that's the case.

This is the biggest question and it will probably decide the primary. Will Cruz and Rubio team up against Trump like the GOP probably wants or will it be Trump and Cruz both going after Rubio? Or will we see Trump and Rubio both going at Cruz?

So far Trump and Rubio have had the least direct conflict with each other. I think they both lay into the infinitely hateable Cruz since they both probably think they will get the majority of his support if he leaves.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Rocks posted:

This is a pretty good article about how Trump is a giant fraud:

https://twitter.com/mikiebarb/status/702180471967498241

Pretty classic that he's quoted throughout.

Of course this won't matter.

It might matter. This could be used as evidence that Trump is not beholden to the Wall Street banks like Hillary so obviously is. I was always expecting Trump to try to use that angle if he could.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

It's funny watching foxnews be completely bewildered by Rubes gameplan. 'So.... you're going to ignore Donald and continue with the strategy that has got you nowhere'.

They sound stupid, it is getting him somewhere, look at the endorsement chart they just showed. I bet you he as a bunch more to slowly trickle out over the next week too. He can't very well just come out and say "Look I'm in this now to be the last not-Trump standing and I'm not attacking Trump until I'm sure I have the full backing of the mainstream GOP when I do it."

He's a bad candidate but at this point I think he as the best and most feasible strategy of anyone other that Trump.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Huh. Now this, if it was played correctly, could wind up being an actual stump.

Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

quote:

One of the ugliest aspects of the Trump for President phenomenon – which anyone who’s been on Twitter can attest to – is how the white supremacists (or “alt-right” or “white nationalists” or whatever they call themselves) have rallied around Trump and swarm against anyone who threatens him. The Washington Post has detailed how these groups view the Trump campaign as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for recruitment of racists. Now, we learn that white supremacists are actively robocalling for Trump in Minnesota and Vermont, and the Rubio campaign is fighting back.

http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2016/02/24/rubio-campaign-calls-trump-renounce-pro-trump-white-supremacist-robocalls/

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

CubsWoo posted:

He already did this in Iowa when this same PAC did robocalls in Iowa with Jared Taylor

But the attack can be bigger than just the robocalls. "Why is Donald Trump actively courting and coordinating support from vocal White Supremacists, some who have links to (anything can be links to) groups that have been classified as hate groups by the SPLC?" The WN forums are supporting him over any other candidate by far. OnTwitter, not to mention Trumps highly questionable retweets. "Racist" is one thing, but "White Supremacist" is a whole other level of accusation.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

SNAKES N CAKES posted:

It'll be interesting to see what happens when Cruz wins Texas, and Rubio and Kasich lose their home states. How would Rubio justify staying in the race?

Endorsements. He might even start getting high ranking sitting Republicans like Paul Ryan at some point depending on how desperate they get.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Chistie! Yes!

Makes me wonder about Rudy now. Can\will they get him to endorse? And if so do they announce it before Tuesday or wait to drop it before the 15th?

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Trump may have just stumped himself on this one.



He's got about 4hours max to get out of this, or those endorsements are going to dry up real fast and Rubio and Kasich have a real way back in the game.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Maybe nothing matters to the voters, the Trump faithful, but people like Nikki Haley who said she would support him if he wins won't be so quick to just laugh this one off.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

DaveWoo posted:

That, or CNN pussies out and starts backing away from the story.



Well poo poo. Thought that might take a bit longer.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

DaveWoo posted:



Come on, HuffPo. "Klandidate" would've been a way better title.

Everybody wave to the lurkers from Huffington Post !



:gently caress

breaklaw fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Feb 28, 2016

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

squidgee posted:

Of course it does - the foundation of Trump's support is racists and bigots, especially in the south, and he needs their votes on Super Tuesday.

For example, 20% of Trump supporters nationwide don't think that the Emancipation Proclamation was a good idea: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-supporters-for-intolerance.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Disavowing the KKK would hurt turnout among those voters when he needs it the most. Dodging the question to avoid disavowing hate groups absolutely helps him get the nomination, even if it (hopefully) will bite him in the general.

How the gently caress do people believe this? I mean I know there is a negative view of Republicans around here, but do you seriously think just because some working class whites may be racist they are also hate group members or sympathizers? There is a difference between casual racism and overt racism and there is also a difference between overt racism and outright racial hatred. Some of the most racist people in the world would still never associate themselves with KKK, neo-Nazis or anything of the like.

This was a dumb move by the Donald and will only hurt his campaign unless he says something to completely reverse this narrative and fast.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

TyrantWD posted:

Those people would have gone out and voted him either way. There isn't a candidate nipping at his heels for the white supremacist vote.

Exactly. There is no way this helps him, and there is also no way that strongly disavowing Duke would have hurt him. Whatever the percentage of admitted white supremacists he counts as supporters (smaller that people here are claiming) would have either still voted for him or not voted at all. No way they would have gone out and voted for another republican because it turns out old Trump doesn't show enough white pride.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

boom boom boom posted:

if he's so great, why has nobody ever heard of him?

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Lord Tywin posted:

I wonder if a stabbed in the back myth will be built around Trump If the Republican party doesn't throw their full support behind him if he wins the nomination and Hillary wins.

Myth? Mitch McConnell is already telling people he plans to work against him. You think the #NeverTrump thing is limited to just pundits?

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Yeah seriously is Rubio actually going to win even a single state tomorrow?

gently caress no but the real question is how does Cruz play it if he wins Texas and has 2 state wins to Rubio's 0? I think there is no way that Rubio will be leading in delegates either unless he way overperforms the polls.

Will it be more "This is the only campaign that has beaten Donald Trump"? or will he pivot away from Trump and specifically go after Rubio as a loser?

If he wins his home state the shape of the race until March 15 depends heavily on Cruz and what his strategy is.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

QuoProQuid posted:

he's going to rescind his endorsement over the david duke stuff

and the press will go wild

Beaten. I think he actually might. Remember if Trump loses he actually has to get a really job next year. People still underestimating this KKK thing is mind boggling.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Best map of the year.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

ShutteredIn posted:

Trump just said Bernie blew the election because he said he doesn't care about Hillary's emails :laffo:

He's right and I only halfway forgive Bernie for this. No way Clinton would have played the "clean campaign" card with him if the roles were reversed. America deserves a Trump-Sanders election and Bernie is blowing it.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
What's the matter with Kansas?

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Mister Fister posted:

Pointing out Hillary is corrupt for taking money from wall street isn't mud slinging, it's truth. She doesn't even have an answer for it.

The email thing is true too. She overstepped; she put our country's secrets at risk. It could be mud slinging depending on how you talk about it but not just by talking about it. Especially after the guy who set up the system took the fifth and then asks for and gets granted immunity.

I wonder if this Sanders campaign will be seen in hindsight as one of the biggest missed opportunities for the left of all time. Not too often candidates like Bernie come along and actually get decent traction.

breaklaw
May 12, 2008
Rubio early voting lead seems like BS? Maybe because it probably is.


https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/706924749776154624
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/706926836312383488

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breaklaw
May 12, 2008

Majorian posted:

I understand, but the point is, he's still as beholden to Wall Street as any of them.

Eh, no not quite. A loan or a mortgage is a regular tool of business where the benefit to the bank is direct in the form of interest and fees. Far different from the assumed benefit of political contributions. Big difference between "on the hook to" and "beholden to".

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