Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

married but discreet posted:

Godspeed, and welcome fade6

I thought about that, but I decided that's not a very inventive name, is it? I wanted something a little more fitting of my ME thread posting.

Greetings everyone. :tipshat:

Linking to my last post for future reference for me any everyone else. It's only my old account that's perma'd; I've got the okay, I don't have to pretend I'm someone new.

E: I have to give a huge shout-out to Fizzil, who has been super awesome and made this new account possible. Thanks dude.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Nov 20, 2016

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 03:02

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 17:12

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Gonna giggle and giggle if Mosul and Raqqa fall before the Trumpscension.

In retrospect, Obama probably wanted Mosul and Raqqa in motion before he got out of office just in case something bad popped up, although he probably didn't expect "Trump was elected president" to be the something bad that popped up.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Nov 12, 2016

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 05:11

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

rear end struggle posted:

I somehow think that the Russian's selected American cabinet won't arm communists who also have a low intensity war with Assad.

Actually, I think the SDF are a group that both Trump and his likely neocon cabinet can agree on.

The neocons already love the SDF cuz it checks all the boxes they want: it's a US-friendly group, they hold actual territory, the US has already set up a base (or two) there, and those bases provides an easy way to plop special forces and other spooks in Syria to get up to whatever fun poo poo the neocons want to do. I mean, what better place is there to destabilize Assad from than inside his own country? Meanwhile, the SDF has an incentive to let the US do whatever we want as long as we keep flying the US flags and keep Turkey from shooting at the SDF. Not too hard, since we don't want our SOF and other spooks getting shot at either.

The SDF check Trump's boxes too: Trump's said he wants to work with Russia to "knock the hell out of ISIS", and the PYD has opened a Moscow office (among other places like Germany), so hey these SDF guys are a group the US and Russia can bigly agree on backing.

Trump himself knows very little about the Middle East, but he falls into the "Kurds are the good guys" mindset:

quote:

DT: Oh, I thought you said Kurds, Kurds.
HH: No, Quds.
DT: Oh, I�m sorry, I thought you said Kurds, because I think the Kurds have been poorly treated by us, Hugh. Go ahead.

quote:

SANGER: You said that they could be much more helpful with ISIS. I�m sure perhaps they can. The big difference they�ve had is that we�ve been supporting Kurdish forces that have been very effective ��

TRUMP: I�m a fan of the Kurds, you understand.

SANGER: But Erdogan is not. Tell us how you would deal with that?

TRUMP: Well, it would be ideal if we could get them all together. And that would be a possibility. But I�m a big fan of the Kurdish forces. At the same time, I think we have a potentially � we could have a potentially very successful relationship with Turkey. And it would be really wonderful if we could put them somehow both together.

SANGER: And what�s your diplomatic plan for doing that?

TRUMP: Meetings. If I ever have the opportunity to do it, meaning if I win, we will have meetings, we will have meetings very early on.

That type of mindset can be further influenced by targeted propaganda, and of course the YPG have made sure to keep the propaganda knob turned up to 11:
https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/796695883928764416

quote:

Kurdish women of the YPJ on the #Raqqa front lines against ISIS terrorists. #WrathOfEuphrates

Don't underestimate just how effective this kind of stuff is for reinforcing the "hey look at that, they're just like us" mindset. Oh, and just as Trump hasn't distinguished between Iraqi and Syrian Kurds, neither does the propaganda. That's a feature, not a bug.

Oh, and then there's this that just popped up:
http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/...agrees--Advisor

quote:

A member of the newly elected president of the United States Donald Trump's American Middle East Advisory Committee (AMCT) on Friday said the new administration respects the people of the Kurdistan Region and their struggle for independence.

Sam Yono, an advisory to Trump for Middle East Affairs, spoke to Kurdistan24 via Skype to discuss the US� role in the Middle East, specifically regarding the Kurds.

�We have a tremendous respect for the Kurdistan Region [and] for the leadership in Kurdistan from President [Masoud] Barzani to Prime Minister Nechirvan [Barzani] to the parliament,� Yono said.

The AMCT member also addressed the Region�s burden of housing nearly 1.8 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees since the war with the Islamic State (IS) began in 2014. �We acknowledge all the efforts [made] toward the displaced and the refugees in [the Kurdistan Region],� he continued.

The AMCT member expressed his gratitude at the continued struggle and success of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces who are participating in the offensive to liberate Mosul from IS.

Yono explained the new US administration would consider all the efforts made by the Region once planning begins �on the drawing board� to discuss Kurdistan�s role in the Middle East. Moreover, Yono stated president-elect Trump would not �stand in the way� of Kurdish independence as long as there is an agreement between the Kurdistan Region and Iraq.

�We would like to see a worksheet, a platform from [the Kurdistan] government as soon as possible so it can be reviewed, discussed, and talked about so we can move in the right direction,� he told Kurdistan24. �If the program benefits the citizens of the region in Kurdistan and in Iraq and there is an understanding and approval by the country of Iraq, I don�t believe president-elect Trump will stand in the way,� he continued. �Nothing is impossible,� Yono concluded.

Things could get very interesting very fast.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 23:40

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Some random bits of news. First up, a video:
http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/37954548
Tears as Mosul soldier finds mother on bus. It's a really nice video. :unsmith:

The SDF have been quietly doing things east of Manbij:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/797918562463535104

quote:

Manbij #SDF captured Qawuqli (not Qawuqli farms yet) and Tall Turin from #ISIS. Arimah almost surrounded.

https://twitter.com/Kurdistan_dd/status/797870959583760384

quote:

In #Bashiqa town: #Peshmerga Forces put the cross back on the Orthodox Church and repair the church bell.
البيشمركة الابطال في الموصل

https://twitter.com/PYD_Rojava/status/798107679688421376
French speaking SDF fighters eliminating an IS VBIED in Raqqa countryside.
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5cvafn/french_speaking_sdf_fighters_eliminating_an_is/

Translation via r Syrian Civil War posted:

"Pr�pare le MILAN, vite vite vite" (Prepare the MILAN, quick quick quick)
"Ouais c'est s�r c'est s�r" (Yeah it's sure, it's sure)
"Vis�e 1700 m�tres" (Target 1700 meters)
"C'est bon, je suis par�" (It's right, I'm ready)
"1400"
"C'en est un, c'en est un" (It's one, it's one [SVBIED?])
As the missile is flying: "P�te-le p�te-le p�te-le" (Destroy it destroy it destroy it)
"Reculez reculez" (Go back go back) [or "� terre ! � terre !" (get down, get down)]
After the explosion: "Attention, baissez-vous" (Warning, get down)
"On pr�pare un deuxi�me, pr�pare une deuxi�me" (Prepare a second one)
"Putain, bien jou�" (gently caress, well done)
Background: "Fais gaffe � ton flingue toi" (Be careful with your gun, you)

# ¿ Nov 14, 2016 16:56

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Gobbeldygook posted:

Quoting myself from earlier in the thread:

The other name floated was John Bolton. John Bolton is...uh...eccentric but also not on Team Assad.

God these guys are all completely insane. This would completely destabilize Iraq just as things are starting to get back to sanity.

And that "plan" wouldn't work in Syria either:
https://anfenglish.com/news/al-sanadid-forces-join-the-operation-wrath-of-euphrates

quote:

The Operation Wrath of Euphrates had started on November 5 with the participation of YPG/YPJ, Baz�n Reqqay� Brigade, Al-Tahr�r Brigade, Şeh�d�n Reqqay� Brigade, Şeh�d�n Hemam Al-Tirkmen Brigades, Şoreşger�n Reqqay� Brigade, Şoreşger�n Gir� Sp� Brigade and Syriac Military Council.

On the sixth day of the military campaign, the General Command of Al-Sanadid Forces announced that they will be partaking in the operation to liberate Raqqa alongside the Wrath of Euphrates fighters.

Al-Sanadid Forces General Commander Bender Deham El-Had� said they will join the operation with all their forces made up of two thousand fighters.

The Shammar in East Syria have already picked their side; they're not going to be interested in a "Sunni-stan", they've already sided with the SDF/Rojava.

Back in reality, have a clusterfuck of a map:

Euphrates Shield has finally made it to the outskirts of Al Bab, but given their track record any progress in Al Bab proper is going to be on the scale of months, not days or weeks. They could bypass Al Bab and make a straight shot at East Aleppo, or take the fight to Assad's forces to the south, but Euphrates Shield seems to not be interested in either of these options right now.

# ¿ Nov 15, 2016 17:56

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Mosul seems to be going good:

# ¿ Nov 16, 2016 02:41

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

PMUs have liberated Tal Afar airport:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5das9e/pmus_have_liberated_tel_afar_airport/
https://twitter.com/hoseinmortada/status/798954430381125632
This means Mosul is almost completely surrounded.

Peto Lucem map of Mosul (annoyingly, he doesn't include Tal Afar, so the recent advance isn't shown):

There's a couple differences in his map compared to the other map I posted: Hawijat al Husan is a small pocket still under ISIL control, Ali Rash is under Iraqi Army control, and the pocket northeast of Mosul isn't closed.

Sinteres posted:

It looks like the Kurds are making good progress toward Raqqa, and also, interestingly, SDF forces from Manbij have started moving toward Al Bab. I can't imagine they're going to be able to challenge Turkey for control of the actual city, but maybe they're hoping to loop around its south? I hope there's some strategy here at least (and ideally assurance of protection from the US or Russia) and that they aren't just rushing over to get bombed into paste by Turkey.

One theory I've seen floated is that the SDF is waiting for Euphrates Shield to exhaust themselves trying to take Al Bab, and then swoop in. Of course, the SDF taking Al Bab wouldn't be a cake walk either, it would almost certainly be a huge slog like Manbij was. The third factor is Assad, since Al Bab is also really, really close to SAA lines.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2016 20:59

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

In news, the bomb ~~diffusing~~ defusing guys continue to have the worst jobs ever:
https://twitter.com/Afarin_Mamosta/status/799673061796524032

quote:

SDF/YPG have captured an ISIS SVBIED & are defusing it, north of #Raqqa as part of the operation to liberate #Raqqa from ISIS terrorists.

Whatever these guys are paid, it's not enough.

Advances are still happening:
https://twitter.com/raqqa1campaign/status/799653464959811584

quote:

#Breaking
#Raqqa
#SDF liberate Tholoth Khnez,and the process of cleaning within Tel Alsmen
Separates the fighters from Al Raqqa only 25 km.

Updated maps of the Raqqa area have been a little difficult to find, so here's a couple of slightly older ones with English names for the bvillages:

Tholoth Khnez/Tel Alsmen (Thulth Khunayz/Tall Al-Samen on the map) are about a third of the way to Raqqa from the old front-line.

Mozi posted:

Why don't you tell us what you think about all of those and then we'll talk about it?

Yeah, come on Grouchio, try to contribute to the thread and make it a discussion, not just "help me with homework plz". Some of those topics are legit interesting (the thread's discussed the second one a little already), but discussion takes two sides to happen.
_{_{Insert bad joke about Syria here.}}

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Nov 19, 2016

# ¿ Nov 18, 2016 23:05

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

TildeATH posted:

Defuse

The bomb diffusing guys are the guys driving the SVBIEDs.

Noted, and corrected. Thanks.

I found an updated North Raqqa map, it's oriented south-to-north so that Raqqa is at the top of the map:

Apparently Tel Alsmen/Til Sim'an was a bit of an ISIL hub; photos and videos coming out of it:
https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/799719336017620992

quote:

Terror flags downed, Syrian Democratic Forces #SDF in newly-liberated Til Sim'an district north of #Raqqa, #Syria:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KLEkzrDtSI

https://twitter.com/AFPphoto/status/799548040394797058

quote:

SYRIA - Fighters from Kurdish-Arab alliance hold a position in Tall as Samn near front line north of IS group bastion. By
@Delilsouleman

Other notes, Kurdish twitter definitely seems to be upping the propaganda game even further:
https://twitter.com/AhmedoKurdi/status/799696524938645504

quote:

American veteran volunteer Joe Pollard from #Alabama: "I believe in a free Kurdistan and a freedom from the oppression from Daesh".

https://twitter.com/AhmedoKurdi/status/799711393067008000

quote:

Another American veteran Jason Smith from #Oregon sold his things and gave up his engineering job to fight for Kurdistan.

https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/799589437848125440

quote:

Sema Reqqa, a brave young woman from #Raqqa fights along her comrades to liberate their city from #Daesh/#ISIS terrorists. #Syria #SDF

The YPJ stuff is standard, what's interesting is that they've been emphasizing the foreign volunteers little heavier recently. It's likely a way to solidify the "we're just like you" idea; can't get much better at that than "hey lookie here, we've got (white) Americans working and fighting with us".

# ¿ Nov 19, 2016 00:45

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Oh hey, turns out the YPG announcing they were leaving Manbij (again) didn't make a drat bit of difference:
https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/800429917116788736

quote:

#BREAKING: #Turkish warplanes bomb Syrian Democratic Forces #SDF in west of #Manbij city, northern #Syria � there are casualties.

"#Turkish aerial bombardment is an act of cowardice, it complicates the fight against #Daesh terrorists." #SDF spokesperson Sherwan Darwish

�#Turkish air force targeted #SDF in three villages west of #Manbij [NW #Syria], one SDF fighter died, 3 others wounded.� - Sherwan Darwish

http://en.hawarnews.com/turkish-warplanes-strike-mmc-positions/

quote:

MANBIJ � Turkish warplanes struck positions of the Manbij Military Council, it was reported on Sunday afternoon.

According to reports, warplanes belonging to the occupying Turkish army struck positions held by the Manbij Military Council in the villages of Şex Nasir, Qert, �ran and �lam west of Manbij at around 17:40 local time on Sunday.

Whilst further details have not yet been obtained on the attack, the general commander of the Manbij Military Council Ednan Ebu Emced called the attack a cowardly one.

I await more US flags flying from buildings and cars, because that's somehow the least asinine strategy currently available to keep Turkey from shooting at the SDF.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2016 02:21

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

An interesting article about the regime returning to Moadamiyeh, and what the transition has been like:
http://syriadirect.org/news/former-...urned%E2%80%99/

Another interesting article about the general US withdrawal from Euphrates Shield, and the effects it may have:
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/syria-turkish-allys-untimely-departure

quote:

Under these circumstances, the withdrawal of U.S. support is untimely for Ankara to say the least. The U.S. special operations forces on the ground and coalition air support were a helpful addition in the fight against the Islamic State, but they were even more crucial as a deterrent to loyalist action in the area. Loyalist � and by extension, Iranian and Russian � unease over a potential clash with U.S. forces was an added layer of security to the Turkish-backed operation in northern Aleppo. With U.S. forces leaving, that effect is gone.

Other news, Sheikh Naser went from SDF to Euphrates Shield and then back to SDF control today:
https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/800818171762606080

quote:

Shield Euphrates militants attack SDF in North east Aleppo CS , and capture Al-Sheikh Naser
--
SDF recapture the town Al-Sheikh Naser

Euphrates Shield got pushed back north of Al Bab:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/800699557747171328

quote:

FSA failed to regain Qabasin from IS

YPG are mad at the US/coalition, as expected:
https://twitter.com/M1Massoud/status/800610923396349952

quote:

#MMC: USA coalition has promised us to protect our area after YPG withdraw to east Euphrates, Turkish army used this withdraw to attack us!

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/800789238451081216

quote:

#YPG threatens to stop Raqqa offensive if the US-Coaltion does not prevent "turkish aggression" towards #SDF forces.

And just think, this is the calm before the Trump/Pence/Flynn/Neocon storm. :suicide:

# ¿ Nov 22, 2016 00:38

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Jazerus posted:

As far as I know, just in the Kurdish regions. The PYD (who most folks know through the YPG, their armed wing) in Syria, PKK in Turkey, and PJAK in Iran are all communist, though they haven't been Marxist-Leninist for about a decade.

At the risk of setting off the leftist hair-splitting/circular firing squad, the terms "communalism", "democratic confederalism", and/or "Libertarian municipalism" are probably better descriptions for the current government of Rojava/the northern Syria area.

quote:

Communalism proposes a radically different form of economy � one that is neither nationalized nor collectivized according to syndicalist precepts. It proposes that markets and money be abolished and that land and enterprises be placed increasingly in the custody of the community � more precisely, the custody of citizens in free assemblies and their delegates in confederal councils. How work should be planned, what technologies should be used, how goods should be distributed are seen as questions that can only be resolved in practice.

This is the whole point of the PYD setting up local councils in Tal Abyad, Shaddadi, Manbij, etc. Rojava is not intended to be ruled by one single, central entity; instead power is delegated to the local mayors and councils. Tal Abyad is probably the best example of how all the stuff works in practice, since Tal Abyad was the first non-Kurdish majority area to start following the new system of government:
http://www.middleeasteye.net/in-depth/features/young-female-mayor-breaks-boundaries-syrian-town-freed-552711157

(Tal Abyad co-mayors, 51-year-old Hamdan al-Abad (R) and 27-year-old Layla Mohammed.)

quote:

For more than a year, women in the Syrian town of Tal Abyad were forced to abide by the Islamic State�s harsh interpretation of Islam. They were not allowed to work, smoke, go to restaurants or fraternise with men who were not their direct relatives and those who disobeyed the rules were often punished and beaten. Some were even killed, beheaded and crucified, and their headless bodies were displayed in the centre of the city.

Since Syrian Kurdish forces forced IS out of Tal Abyad in June of last year, things have taken a drastically different turn. The small town in eastern Syria � a one hour and a half drive from the de-facto IS capital Raqqa � is now being co-run by a young female mayor.

At just 27, Layla Mohammed is not only the first woman to rule over Tal Abyad, but she is also one of the youngest people to be given the reigns in what has traditionally been an ethnically mixed yet relatively conservative and tribe-dominated town where women were discouraged from pursuing higher education and did not play any role in local politics.

The challenges ahead for Mohammed are daunting as many local residents admit that having such a young woman in charge is strange. More worryingly, the Islamic State group has continued to mount resistance and has carried out a string of attacks on civilians and prominent activists. On Wednesday morning, a suicide bomber killed seven people and injured 10 more. With many sleeper cells still believed to be operating in the town, few think the attack will be the last, but Mohammed says she will not be deterred. �I know my life is at risk, but I believe in my job,� she told Middle East Eye. �There is no need for [militants to issue] direct threats [against me]. If I was planning to kill you, why would I come to tell you before? I would simply slaughter you. But I have received some indirect threats. �My friends told me not to go back, but if someone is controlled by fear, you cannot do anything.�

Mohammed was born in Tal Abyad, a strategic key town with easy links to Turkey that before the war was made up of around 70 percent Sunnis, 30 percent Kurds, as well as a sprinkling of Christians and Turkmen. Due to a lack of higher education opportunities nearby, in 2006 Mohammed left to study engineering at the university of Raqqa where she stayed until the revolution started. When it did, she says she felt lost.

She wanted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gone, but was worried that the opposition was too weak and divided to offer a real alternative. Her first reaction was to try and ride it out in Raqqa, but in 2013 Raqqa fell to al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front and Mohammed decided to leave.

�Nobody resisted in Raqqa, neither the regime nor the other [moderate Syrian opposition] factions,� she said. �It was in the middle of the night that the Syrian regime evacuated from the city. Raqqa was sold.� She fled to the border town of Kobane but returned a few months later only to find the strength of IS had swelled significantly. By 2014, the city had fallen under IS control entirely. �I was shocked, I didn�t know it was under the control of IS,� she said. �Everything was covered in black.�

As a single Kurdish woman, Mohammed�s situation was particularly perilous and it became immediately apparent that she had to escape IS rule. She took her documents, paid a smuggler and fled.

With Tal Abyad now also fully under IS control, and the town emptied of most of its Kurdish and Christian residents who were either made to swear allegiance to IS or pay hefty taxes to the militants, Mohammed escaped to Qamislo, in the province of Hasakah to the north. While many of her friends and family fled for Europe, Mohammed stayed, and when IS was finally ousted from Tal Abyad, she shocked many by deciding to go back.

She says her family was encouraged and wanted her to use her �independent personality� to break traditional boundaries and felt galvanised by the democratic ideas promoted by the Syrian Kurds that include giving more rights to women. She wanted to make a change. Shortly after her return, local tribal leaders put her forward as a co-mayor and in October Mohammed was chosen alongside a local Arab tribal leader Mansour Saloum.

In part, she owes her election to the new system introduced by the Kurds which dictates that any institution must have both male and female leaders, but she says her university degree and work with local institutions like the People�s House that deals with social problems and acts like a regional council, helped her win respect quickly.

The shift in attitudes toward women has been so radical that it has shocked many, including Mohammed.

�It's very strange for people to build a new system after they were suppressed by the [Assad] regime and it was difficult for them to accept one woman who would govern them,� she told MEE. �In the past, whether in military, politics, or even on the social side, women were not allowed to participate.� A resident said that it was �difficult for us to accept this system�. Another told MEE that it has been �strange for us�.

Despite the kickback, many insist there is an overwhelming feeling that change is here to stay. �They were very surprised [when Layla became the co-head], but now it's somehow normal,� Hamdan al-Abad, 51, who later replaced Saloum as co-chair, told MEE after Saloum left to lead a separate assembly.

Abad jokingly added that things were so different now that men did not have rights anymore.

�The women are not just 50 percent of society, they are 100 percent,� he said. �They have a international mother day, and a women day, but we don�t have one day for men.� Abad says that IS made life impossible for women and he was thrilled to see the militants ousted. �Women couldn�t walk alone in the streets, and if they were not fully covered, they could receive punishment,� he said. �We lived like animals.�
--
But it's hard to miss the drastic changes that are already underfoot. The 178-member higher council that governs Tel Abyad and elected Mohammed is made up of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen and Abad says that it will �represent all ethnic groups in the town�.

Security conditions made it impossible to hold elections, but council members say they are determined to follow a multi-cultural ideology, called a �democratic nation�. This was first introduced by Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and argues that all ethnic groups must participate in local government.

Currently Arabic and Kurdish are taught in schools and there are plans to introduce Turkish. Mohammed also says that she will fight to break old boundaries and allow more women access to higher education. She says that Kurds, but also increasingly Arab residents, are starting to agree with her.

�If we can�t raise free women, we can�t raise a free society,� she said. �But now people are accepting us somehow, and this motivates us.� She says that the Kurdish Women Protection Units (YPJ), the all-female Syrian Kurdish fighting units, continue to act as source of inspiration. �If they [the media] can show that one woman can lead an army, they can also show those who lead society [and politics],� she said. �We cannot build a free society without giving women complete freedom.�

There are already some decent service provisions; the streets are largely clean; there is food and shops and restaurants are all starting to open up their doors again. Mohammed says this is only the start for Tal Abyad. �The more I do, [the more I think] that I have not done anything for my country, but I will [keep trying to] do my best,� she said.

One big thing that makes the system unique is that it specifically states that an institution must always have both male and female leaders, so you end up with a power-sharing system by design.

# ¿ Nov 23, 2016 04:03

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Many things have happened:
https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/801366298424987648

quote:

IMPORTANT:

#Iraq's Hashd has cut the Tal 'Afar-Sinjar road and reached Sinjar district after decimating Da'ish in the region.

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/801434132756598784

quote:

Manbij Military Council (SDF) have taken control of Arimah from IS after storming the town from 3 axis, Turkey-FSA continue attacks on SDF

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/801524795032608769

quote:

Qabasin is still under #ISIS control. #FSA didn't recapture the town yet. Rebel sources also reporting this.

Everything is coming down to Al Bab.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2016 01:52

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Well, this kinda kills the idea of Euphrates Shield lifting the siege of east Aleppo:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5epanv/turkey_pm_y%C4%B1ld%C4%B1r%C4%B1m_we_are_not_threating/
https://twitter.com/anadoluajansi/status/801861173977214976

quote:

#BaşbakanYıldırım: Suriye'nin toprak b�t�nl�ğ�ne karşı bir d�ş�ncemiz yok. Halep'e y�r�mek gibi bir hedefimiz yok.

Turkey PM Yıldırım: we are not threating territorial integrity of Syria, also we don't have in plans to attack Aleppo city

Some depressing news from Iraq:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38090006

quote:

Some 77 people, most of them Shia pilgrims from Iran and Afghanistan, have been killed in a truck bomb attack in Iraq, officials say. The blast struck at a petrol station and restaurant near Hilla, some 100 km (60 miles) south of Baghdad.

Busloads of pilgrims had stopped there on their way home from commemorating Arbaeen in the holy city of Karbala. Some 40 people were wounded. The jihadist group Islamic State said it carried out the attack.

A senior local police officer told the BBC that the victims were on board four buses filling up with fuel at the road stop near the village of Shomali, 80 km (50 miles) south-east of Karbala. A truck loaded with ammonia nitrate and other explosive material as well as fuel had been parked at the petrol station, and caused massive damage when it was detonated.

ISIL car-bombed a bunch of civilians. :smith:

# ¿ Nov 24, 2016 21:34

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

coupbrick posted:

Can a WWIII be called a World War if every nation is fighting mostly within one or two nations?

WW3 shall hence be known as "World Proxy War".

Bad news, this happened:
https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/801896790857490432

quote:

A US service member in northern #Syria has died from wounds sustained in an explosion, says @CENTCOM.

# ¿ Nov 25, 2016 04:33

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

A helpful map to explain what the hell is going on around Al Bab:

Basically, Euphrates Shield is attempting an encirclement of Al Bab while also trying to push the SDF back on two fronts. They're leaving themselves super exposed to counterattacks by doing this, especially since they're bypassing Qabasin with an extremely long and thin salient. They're also running a serious risk of those salients getting cut off and having the forward forces isolated.

E: In addition, note the location of the Syrian Army airstrike, right at the base of the salient. The SDF has done encircling attacks before, but they had coalition air power in support of them, and no opposing air-force. Euphrates Shield has to worry about the SAA attacking from the air, which makes those salients all the more precarious.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Nov 25, 2016

# ¿ Nov 25, 2016 22:05

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

fits my needs posted:

Is Kurdish propaganda going to start shifting to a more Pro-Assad and Russian/communist solidarity bent? That would be an interesting pivot to see on Twitter and other media sources.

Sinteres posted:

Pretty sure they'll downplay the association for international consumption and still work to present themselves to the West as preferable to the alternatives.

Looks like a little bit of both currently:
https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/802551710455578625

quote:

YPG�s international volunteers commemorate Fidel Castro in Rojava, northern Syria #FidelCasto #Cuba

This is the international brigade, so they're foreign fighters as opposed to native Kurdish/Arab/Assyrian/YPG/YPJ/etc.

# ¿ Nov 27, 2016 05:21

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/803274414271827968

quote:

YPG find a hell cannon left behind by Jihadists in Bustan Pasha neighbourhood. Shelling on Ş�x Meqsud killed more than a hundred civilians.

# ¿ Nov 28, 2016 21:04

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Aleppo megathread on r Syrian Civil War, lots of good info in there (most of this post is pulled from the megathread):
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5f7rg2/aleppo_compilation_thread/

Thug Lessons posted:

Some FSA groups are saving themselves by retreating to Sheikh Maqsud.

Update on this, turns out it's not as odd as it first appears:
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/803110756841558016

quote:

#Syria #Aleppo Some #FSA group stationed in #Hullok from Northern Democratic Battalion pledged to #SDF

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/803166739781468163

quote:

A number of militants have surrendered to Syrian Army & are aiding their advance into east Aleppo, others have defected to SDF like in Halek

https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/802960522824089600

quote:

#SRO - According to local contact, two small autonomous #FSA battalions arrived in #Aleppo #SDF territory. Weapons taken by #SDF
#SRO - SRO team already trying to identify the two small groups. Clearly local street battalions as many can be found in #Aleppo
Skype call was clear : very small, maybe two dozens fighters. According to contact, their families fled hours before them.

So a lot of the FSA groups defecting to the SDF are likely these small street battalions with a couple dozen fighters each. They're just local dudes with families rather than dedicated hardline fighters, so they're more interested in surviving rather than fighting.

On that note of families fleeing from the areas mentioned above:
https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/803187007040135168

quote:

YPG Aleppo General Command: Our forces freed 6000 civilians by opening up a humanitarian corridor in Bustan Pasha and Hallok neighbourhoods.

Videos of civilians travelling to Sheikh Maqsoud:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_4YCAmiGKY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LgDkb9Q2u8

Map of the area:
https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/803255563383541760

quote:

1. Kurdish source: there is large YPG presence in Bustan Al Basha. And Minimal presence in Halek and Ayn Tal districts

Can I just say, GODDAMN that's a huge collapse by the rebels! :stare:

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Nov 28, 2016

# ¿ Nov 28, 2016 23:40

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

One more three letter organization for the pile: SNR, Syrian National Resistance (or Syrian Patriotic Resistance). This is the name of the new hybrid SAA/SDF faction near Al Bab, and they kicked things off with a pretty strongly-worded statement:
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/803398530949906432
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5ffwl5/inaugural_statement_from_snr_syrian_national/
Helpful background info on the group:

bjam83 posted:

The official line seems to be that it is made up of the Kafr Saghir Martyrs Brigade (Kafr Saghir is the region jointly controlled between Efrin SDF and SAA), which is a militia loyal to both the SDF and SAA.

I'm skeptical they have the manpower, especially after only a little over a month of holding the area. I would say that it is the Efrin SDF augmenting the manpower of the Kafr Saghir Martyrs Brigade, with SAA providing political and heavy weapons support if/when required against TFSA.
What seems agreed by the SDF and SAA is that this will act as an umbrella group for spearheading a pushback against the Turkish incursion/TFSA. Whilst also being a neutral group for buffering the SDF and SAA.

Notable things about the statement:
-The wording pulls from the playbooks of both the SDF (free, democratic) and SAA (patriotic, united).
-Very anti-Turkey/anti-Ottoman in tone, even by SDF standards
-Hitler name drop, but it's in reference to the Ottoman genocides so it doesn't feel out of place
-Jarablus to Iskandarun. Iskandarun is in Hatay province, aka that little chunk of Turkey that Syria wants back.
-The SNR has a flag:

It looks very similar to the SDF's flag, complete with Hatay being part of Syria.

I guess this simplifies the race to Al Bab a little.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Nov 29, 2016

# ¿ Nov 29, 2016 22:01

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Lustful Man Hugs posted:

Any idea what this means in the long run? I'm wondering if the Russians convinced the regime to give the SDF the federalism they wanted.

Right now there's probably still a lot of hashing out being done behind closed doors, and given that the SAA's still really busy with Aleppo this might be a way for the regime to open another front without having to move huge numbers of troops away from Aleppo. This might also be something of a test run, to see if the SDF and the SAA can work together to achieve a common goal.

Additionally, things might have been pushed into high gear by the fact that Euphrates Shield had/has reached the outskirts of Al Bab. Most of the towns that Euphrates Shield controls now (with the exception of Jarablus) are tiny little places that can be taken fairly quickly, but the SAA or the SDF attempting to dislodge Euphrates Shield from a place as large as Al Bab would be an incredible slog. So this new alliance may be a way to cut that possibility off before it happens.

TheNakedFantastic posted:

I guess SDF feels like it's better off hitching its wagon to the SAA in case of a Turkish invasion but this might also give Turkey a better pretext to attack the SAA itself.

Honestly if Turkey wanted to directly attack the SAA they would have done it already. They had a clear shot at Aleppo and chose to piss around fighting in Tal Rifaat instead. Attacking the SAA now would bring Russian/Syrian planes after Euphrates Shield in force, and help to solidify this new SAA/SDF cooperation. (Not to mention that it would prove that Euphrates Shield's whole existence is to be anti-YPG to the point of stupidity.)

E:
https://twitter.com/theatresofwar/status/803664457247453184

quote:

The race is on for Al-Bab - Northern #Aleppo province, N #Syria - #RaceForAlbab

If the SAA had waited much longer, Al Bab would have been encircled by Euphrates Shield. This was a "the longer you wait, the harder it gets" kind of moment.

_{lol that hashtag}

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Nov 30, 2016

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 00:55

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Just to note, I'm not particularly enthused about the SDF working with the regime, but I can understand why they're doing it. It's becoming fairly obvious now that Assad is going to "win" the civil war (with "win" meaning "rule over a bombed-out shell of a country") and the Kurds are opportunists. As said a few pages back:

Squalid posted:

The PYD has consistently pursued a policy of Kurdish autonomy throughout the conflict, seeking accommodation with the regime when possible and refusing to commit to the wider Syrian revolution. Volkerball has cited instances in the early revolution when Syrian secret police were allowed to operate freely within PYD controlled territory. Their stance has always been to seek to advance the interests of Syria's Kurdish population first, before commitment to the revolution or any pan-Syrian objectives. I think for this reason you can fairly call them sectarian.

I don't think that is a fair criticism of the organization however. PYD exists to advance the interests of Syria's Kurds, and the opposition was never willing to offer the kinds of concessions on autonomy they wanted. Given the bloody history of tyrants and Arabs/Alawites crushing opposition under the banner of Syrian unity, they were right to view similar claims of brotherhood from the rebels with skepticism.

I'd say "opportunistic" is a better descriptor than "sectarian", but yeah. On the flip side of opportunism, early in the battle of Aleppo the Kurds turned a blind eye to the rebels moving troops/supplies/equipment through Sheikh Maqsood in order to attack the regime. This was back when the regime was on the back foot and it looked like Aleppo was going to fall to the rebels, now the reverse is true.

Speaking of Aleppo:
https://twitter.com/sergermedx/status/803709528504082432

quote:

SDF/YPG distributing food to civilians in Baghidin,Bostan Basha & Hellok neighbourhoods of Aleppo.

Life goes on, no matter who the new faction in control is.

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 03:10

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Volkerball posted:

Let's make a list of all the fools who have opportunistically made deals with the regime and didn't get burned by it:

The Druze?

I'm not being sarcastic here, the Druze seem to have made basically the same kind of deal with the regime.

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 15:49

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Welp, the collapse isn't stopping:
https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/804026005023232000

quote:

#Aleppo Al-Shiekh Saeed
source from ground : More then 85 % of the Neighborhood under SAA & Aliies control

militants report lies

now quiet

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/803978002073649153

quote:

#SAA fully captured Sheikh Sa'eed district and Sadcop Fuel depot - #Aleppo City

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/804017097261072384/photo/1

quote:

Breaking Aleppo , syrian Army capture Youth housing in the neighborhood Ahalouanah

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 19:53

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Redmark posted:

Who's even the most relevant rebel group that's, for a lack of a better term, Western-aligned? Daraa's no longer capable of an offensive. New Syrian Army is done. Aleppo city is completely consolidated as the "Aleppo Army", and obviously Islamist groups run the show there and in Idlib. Every group that's tried to stand up to the Islamists has been subjugated, or is running around North Aleppo with the Turks.

The SDF. I'm not even joking, they're pretty much the only group of any notable size in Syria that you could call "western-aligned" at this point.

Mulva posted:

You might as well list it in monopoly money for all it matters, no part of Syria is getting rebuilt.

Kobani's actually been partially rebuilt, and construction is continuing. The frontlines have moved far enough away that Kobani is relatively peaceful. Similar reconstruction has been happening in the Tal Abyad and Shaddadi areas, it's just that those places weren't nearly as wrecked as Kobani was.

I've heard that reconstruction is also happening in Homs, but it looks like there's a sectarian component there:
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/reconstructing-capital-syrian-revolution-610735991

quote:

The official narrative in Damascus is that the city is being reborn. Confident that victory has been secured in Homs, it has in recent months invited journalists and diplomats on �peace tours� to observe the renewed sense of calm in the city.

Delegations noted fledgling reconstruction projects on historical monuments in Homs� city centre, such as the Ottoman-era Khalid Ibn Wahid Mosque and the Saint Mary Church of the Holy Belt, built on foundations dating back to 50 AD.

More ambitious reconstruction projects are also in development. These include a 217 hectare plan to reconstruct Baba Amr, a conservative Sunni area in the war-torn city. In 2012, the district was subjected to one of the most intense bombardments of the war.
--
But visitors have also noted that Homs continues to lie in a state of utter disrepair. According to the UNHCR, 12 out of 36 areas in the city are in urgent need of rehabilitation. And crucially, most of the city�s pre-war population remains in exile. Economic experts have previously noted that the Syrian government will face a huge uphill struggle to raise the more than $100bn necessary to finance redevelopment, and will likely be forced to rely on its main international backers � Russia, Iran and China.
--
Mohammad al-Homsi, who spoke to Middle East Eye using an alias, fled the Khaldiyeh area of Homs under Syrian army artillery fire in April 2012, relocating to al-Waer.

He described the Baba Amr redevelopment plans as �ink on paper�, and was dismissive of the government�s reconstruction proposals. �War is changing [the demographics] of Homs,� he said. �Many Sunnis are scared to return.� He was especially critical of Hezbollah, which has been fighting alongside Assad's troops, as well as pro-Assad foreign fighters from Iraq and Iran.

Opposition activists have claimed in recent months that some former residents of Homs deemed by the Syrian government to possess opposition sympathies have been turned away at checkpoints when attempting to return home.

They also claim that projects to repair damaged road and water infrastructure are concentrated in the majority Alawite and Christian neighbourhoods, which have not been seriously damaged by the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, districts like Baba Amr have been left to decay as punishment for their disloyalty to the government.

Sadly, this is probably how reconstruction will look for a lot of Syria, with Alawite, Christian or other "loyalist" places getting the first and best reconstruction efforts, while rebel areas will be left to rot.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Dec 1, 2016

# ¿ Dec 1, 2016 19:39

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Throatwarbler posted:

IS Mosul counter-offensive has broken the encirclement and reestablished link to Raqqa.

Coldwar timewarp posted:

What a surprise! Having the ISF try to handle things alone is a bad idea. The Peshmerga and PMUs should have a more prominent role rather than being sidelined. The article on the way both seiges are covered is very funny, hadn't realized it.

The PMUs were the ones who played a big part in the encirclement and cutting the link:

The Peshmerga are in the yellow areas, the Iraqi Army is to the east of Mosul, and the PMUs are in the southwest and west. The PMUs are the ones who cut the road to the west of Tal Afar. (There's overlap between areas, I'm just keeping things simple for now.)

And just because ISIL temporarily reestablished a link to Raqqa doesn't mean it'll stay reestablished:

Brother Friendship posted:

Even if ISIS did crack the blockade, temporarily, there's not much they can do aside from hope the Iraqi army breaks itself against Mosul or the political unity behind the offensive crumbles. It's less a strategy and more a desperate hope. If the Iraqi army stalls in its offensive the militias will be employed against the city as well. Part of the reason the Iraqis are having as much problem as they are is that the eastern front is the only one open right now and the militias are being held back due to the certain...reputation they've developed. Although to be quite frank I don't know if the real power behind the militias mind the Iraqi army bleeding itself white over Mosul.

Yeah, the Iraqi Army could send in the the PMUs to Mosul proper at any time, but then Mosul would would start looking a lot more like Aleppo, namely that Sunnis (Sunni men in particular) would start "disappearing" by the hundreds.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 21:40

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

TheNakedFantastic posted:

If nothing changes probably under a year, possibly much sooner. The biggest remaining military operations will be retaking Idlib and the Eastern ISIS held areas. The regime-Kurd relationship seems to be turning into a political solution so it seems likely they can reach some sort of compromise with Assad, especially if they keep Western backing.

That bolded one looks to be happening sooner than expected:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/805385288663044096

quote:

I heard that many #SDF fighters at Raqqa fronts are transferred to Ziyanat and Fadghami since some days. Not confirmed though.

https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/805074823084908544

quote:

#SRO - #Serekanye chechen battalions (part of #SDF) arrived near Shadade, reinforcing ongoing #SDF massive war preparations (1).
#SRO - Shadade is seeing one of the biggest #SDF military moves. Thousands coming from #Kobane and #Hasake cantons preparing battles (2).
#SRO - It will be the third major campaign for #Serekaniye chechens as they will participate after Tal Abyad push and North-#Raqqa (3).
#SRO - ADD.: Chechens forming a minority in #Rojava, displaced by Ottomans in XIXth century second part, mainly near #Serekaniye (END).

In "helpful history lessons from reddit" on Syrian Chechens:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5gbm60/serekanye_chechen_battalions_part_of_sdf_arrived/

VaiGattoPanceri posted:

19th century emigration from the Caucasus.

Tens of thousands of Caucasians were settled in the Levant and Mesopotamia by the Ottomans in the aftermath of the Caucasian Wars. Mostly Adyghes(i.e "Circassians"), but also Lezgins, Chechens, Ossetins, and Karachais in smaller numbers. The Ottomans wanted to turn them into a sort of military social caste to help the Ottoman Army keep the local Arabs, Armenians, and Assyrians pacified, but it didn't really work. In fact the opposite happened. During WWI the Caucasians eventually rejected the Ottomans en masse and sided with the British Empire. For example, the famous Arab Legion of Jordan was initially made up almost exclusively of Chechens and Circassians.

Tweet chain from a year ago with super interesting info:
https://twitter.com/ver_scholl_en/status/578307568805752833

quote:

Cmdr. Khalid Shawish, who comes from the old local #Chechen community, accuses Chechens who fight in #IS of "polluting" their people's name.
Shawish also praised #Rojava Revo. for strengthening bonds b/w peoples of the area, & spoke highly of local #Chechen-Kurd historical ties.
According to him, local Kurds convinced them to convert to Islam after they arrived in mid-19th c. (not heard that b4�curious to learn more)

Andrea Lazzaroni: After the Caucasian War (1817-1864) Chechens, Ossetians, Circassians and so on fled to the Ottoman Empire. Do you know more or less in which villages do they live?

Hans Scholl: aside from ras al-ayn itself, they're concentrated in al-safih and possibly a few nearby hamlets http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.734276&lon=40.155372&z=13&m=b
think they may also have had landholdings further down the khabur a century ago, around where assyrian villages are today

I have to say, the SDF has amassed an impressively large amalgam of ethnic and religious groups under the "gently caress ISIL" banner.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2016 18:00

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Cat Mattress posted:

I don't think the SDF see the regime as an ally; rather they see it as the enemy they have the possibility of not making.

Lustful Man Hugs posted:

I'm pretty sure the SDF see Assad less as an 'ally' and more of a 'lesser of multiple evils, sometimes'. Even if shooting incidents are kept to a minimum, the two factions are going to have something akin to a cold civil war once this is over. And like people have said, over is a relative term.

"Co-belligerents" is probably a good way to describe the current SDF-Assad relationship. In the short term they share a common enemy (Turkish-backed rebels like Euphrates Shield) and common goals (control of Al Bab), but longer term I agree with Lustful Man Hugs that a "cold civil war" is a likely outcome.

And yes Volkerball, that's a picture of a YPG/YPJ flag alongside the SAA's flag. Gosh, no other group in Syria has done that:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-druze-rally-to-prevent-genocide-of-syrian-brethren/

Oh, right, the Druze. They've done that.

E: Map:

Note how Sheikh Maqsood is 100% surrounded by the SAA.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Dec 4, 2016

# ¿ Dec 4, 2016 22:33

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Okay, it's more than time for news, and it's important news. The SDF is going for Margada/Markadah, south of Shaddadi:
http://aranews.net/2016/12/kurdish-ypg-forces-storm-key-isis-stronghold-northeastern-syria/

quote:

The People�s Protection Units (YPG) launched a major offensive to liberate Margada town, military sources reported on Sunday. Margada is the Islamic State�s (ISIS) last stronghold in Hasakah Governorate. It is located on the administrative border between Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor Governorates.

The YPG initiated the offensive by shelling the local ISIS headquarters with mortar batteries and heavy artillery. The Kurdish units intend to secure the town and thereby end the incessant jihadi attacks on their positions. Payman Mirkham, a media activist, told ARA News that �earlier in the day, ISIS militants launched a mortar attack on the YPG security checkpoints in the [nearby] towns of Kashkash and Fadghami.�

�The Kurdish forces responded by bombing Margada in one of the fiercest offensives against ISIS,� Mirkham reported. Salah Osman, a Kurdish officer, told ARA News that ISIS �had suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment.� The People�s Protection Units and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian militias, are reportedly pushing south along the Khabur River.
--
Islamic State militants have spent the preceding months fortifying Margada town but their earthworks are reportedly incomplete. The extremist group has also tried to impede the Syrian Democratic Forces� advance by planting dozens of landmines along the town�s periphery.

�Islamic State members have dug a trench around the northern part of Margada,� Azzam Khallawi, a local media activist, told ARA News. �The project is expected to proceed and cover the town�s suburbs from all sides.� �We are already aware of those tactics by this terrorist group,� an SDF spokesman told ARA News. �ISIS believes [�] fortifications can prevent our forces from retaking Margada but we assure them that we�re prepared for any scenario.�

ISIS launched a similar project in November 2015, fortifying its headquarters and digging trenches near the town of al-Hawl. However, the project was ultimately unsuccessful as the jihadists were driven from the border town by US-backed SDF fighters.

The Long March to Deir ez-Zor

While the Islamic State controlled much of Hasakah Governorate in 2014, including Tal-Hamis and the Wadi Jarrah river valley, they have since been routed. The Syrian Democratic Forces have secured the Governorate�s capital and liberated more than 255 towns and villages. In February, ISIS was driven out of Shaddadi city in southern Hasakah. The advance came after the SDF units cut off a main ISIS supply route through Syria�s northeastern border with Iraq.

Also in February, the US-backed SDF seized control of the Islamic State�s main financial resource in Hasakah Governorate, the Jibisa gas facility. This petrochemical plant used to feed massive power stations in Syria�s central governorates. ISIS had been in control of the Jibisa gas facility for nearly two years, retrofitting it to produce portable gas cylinders which were then sold on the black market. Analysts told ARA News that at its peak, ISIS was producing 5,000 cylinders per day at Jibisa.

Talal Silo, an SDF spokesman, previously told ARA News that their �next target is Margada. Our operations will continue until we regain the entire region from ISIS.�

Map of the area:

If the SDF would go a little bit farther along the Khabur River they'd get to As-Suwar, which is the town on the end of that road that goes to Deir Ez-Zoir.

# ¿ Dec 5, 2016 22:18

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Jaramin posted:

What happened to the Raqqa offensive? It doesn't seem to have gone anywhere in quite some time.

Sinteres posted:

It was either a feint like the last one, or the Kurds lost interest in going where the US wanted them when the US didn't have anything to offer them regarding al-Bab.

Possibly all of the above:
http://www.voanews.com/a/why-hasnt-raqqa-been-attacked-yet/3616186.html

quote:

Some analysts suspect that talking up an impending full-scale offensive on the city was as much designed to spook IS as anything else � aimed at preventing the terror group from dispatching reinforcements to Mosul and bolstering defenses there in the face of the Iraqi assault.

�I was suspicious of the announcement from the start, to be honest,� Charles Lister, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, told VOA in an email exchange. �Everything I�d been told by coalition members suggested we were in no position to initiate anything close to a full-scale assault on Raqqa. I think shaping operations in the surrounding countryside will prolong for some time,� advised Lister, author of the book The Syrian Jihad.
--
A Turkey-based Western diplomat, who asked not to be named for this article, said part of the delay concerns what force is available to Washington to mount the assault. �To have the Kurds be the main force is a recipe for disaster -- local Arabs are scared of the Kurds and fear what they will do once they enter the city. ISIS has been highly successful in fanning those fears," the diplomat said.

Another Western diplomat noted that the Arab and Turkmen militias in the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces are not up to the task alone of subduing IS in Raqqa. �The only force capable are the People�s Protection Units,� the diplomat said, referring to the Kurdish militia known by its abbreviation, YPG. �Let�s be frank, at best the Arab and Turkmen militias are just self-protection forces for the defense of towns; at worst, some of the militias consist of thugs with criminal backgrounds or they�re rejects from Free Syrian Army,� the diplomat said.
--
The YPG has become increasingly distracted with the drive by Turkish units and Ankara-backed Syrian rebels in northern Syria in operation Euphrates Shield, which is aimed at driving both IS militants and the Kurds back from Turkey�s border.

�I doubt the YPG will prioritize the capture of Raqqa, when two far more important cities in northern Syria, namely al-Bab and Manbij, are threatened by Turkish-backed forces,� said Michael Horowitz, with the Middle-East-based geopolitical consultancy Prime Source.

And don't forget TRUMP! *click* messing up the planned transition of power to Hillary.

In addition, there's the new offensive on Margada I just posted about :
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/805385288663044096

quote:

I heard that many #SDF fighters at Raqqa fronts are transferred to Ziyanat and Fadghami since some days. Not confirmed though.

It's confirmed now; looks like Raqqa is paused in lieu of a new target.

Moving over to Aleppo, some very interesting news:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5go164/aleppo_city_ypg_repelled_a_rebel_attack_on_sheikh/
YPG repelled a rebel attack on Sheikh Kheder District and Sakhour Garden. You'll find those locations in the red area east of Hellok/Buston Pasha:

Turns out the YPG are moving way beyond Sheikh Maqsood. Background info, take it with a grain of salt:

reddit poster 'YPG-Got-Aleppo' posted:

YPG controls the liberated parts of Aleppo together with local YPG-friendly NDF (so the opposite of Hasakah, we could say).

There are YPG checkpoints and NDF checkpoints. I have heard of one checkpoint where both controlled the same checkpoint. Flags fly together, the liberated areas seem to be ruled together as well. The neighborhoods in North Aleppo (City) used to have significant Kurdish minorities. Sometimes Kurdish Majorities (Bani Zaid, Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafiyeh district).

I assume Kurdish civilians are returning to those neighborhoods. In Rebel-Held Aleppo just being Kurdish was a reason to be afraid. So I assume some of those local NDF are Kurds as well.

I don't know if any side-to-side combat against Rebels took place between YPG and SAA, NDF or Liwa al Quds. I do know that the Regime's strategy was called "Steel Ring" by some people. This means that the SAA fought especially for the not so populated areas first to create a kind of "Steel Ring" around the populated areas. Changing fronts and new checkpoints for civilians to flee makes it easier for them to flee: The checkpoints to flee into Regime areas are somewhat new everytime. I assume there has been NDF-YPG side-to-side fighting against the Rebels. YPG seems to have a guiding role inside the city, SAA seems to take the lean on all of the outside of rebel-held territories.

# ¿ Dec 5, 2016 22:50

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Oh, and in response to Volkerball's land area control map, have a similar map:
https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/805112533669572608

quote:

#Syria: Map of who holds what in #Aleppo Province [30 NOV 2016]:
- 32.5%: #PYD/#YPG
- 30.5%: Insurgents
- 23%: #IS
- 14%: Pro-#Assad forces

This is why population density matters.

(That said, the YPG/SDF control an impressive amount of Aleppo Province considering that ~2 years ago Kobani was completely surrounded by ISIL.)

# ¿ Dec 5, 2016 23:05

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Count Roland posted:

Cool map. I guess that bit of IS territory bordering Golan is long gone? I think I remember seeing a tiny enclave there.

It's a map of Aleppo Province, not the whole of Syria. (As the map shows, "Aleppo Province" is a completely useless designation given that the boundaries of the province exist only on maps.)

And the guys you're thinking of are the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, they're still around unfortunately:
https://twitter.com/AAhronheim/status/802782686494355456

quote:

#BREAKING: #Israel airforce has struck targets belonging to #ISIS affiliated Shuhada al Yarmouk In #Syria

A little while back the group started a fight with the Southern Front, and the Southern Front eventually beat them back into their little pocket.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Dec 6, 2016

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 02:29

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Redmark posted:

edit: uh...

The speed of the rebel collapse in Aleppo is still astounding. Aleppo was deadlocked for 4 years, and now it's looking like SAA and company are going to take the entirety of Aleppo (minus the SDF parts) before the end of the year.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 19:39

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

FeedingHam2Cats posted:

Probably relocating to Idlib province would be my guess but I dunno. From what I had heard (the twittersphere so take it with a grain of salt) they had essentially run out of ammunition so any resistance would have been a waste of their lives.

FeedingHam2Cats posted:

They've been negotiating releases like this for a while in other pockets, actually. They drop their weapons, the regime lets them go to Idlib province. It frees up more soldiers and equipment and puts all the rebels in one spot allowing the Russians to bomb them with impunity, essentially

I do wonder what the regime's eventual end plan is for Idlib. Right now they're basically using it as a dumping ground for rebels, but that's not any sort of long term plan.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 22:52

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Well, the plural of anecdote is something:
https://twitter.com/InsideSourceInt/status/806239971497517056

quote:

#Syria // #Aleppo // At least 5 buses full of fighters from East (Southern) Aleppo left the enclave right now.

https://twitter.com/GlobalEventMap/status/806228804746219520

quote:

At least 10 Green buses have entered the Old City, rumors of a surrender by the militants in Central #Aleppo, #Syria

https://twitter.com/maytham956/status/806245083846676481

quote:

Dozens of armed men surrender to #SAA in the neighborhoods of Bab AlHadeed, Aghyr & Karm AlJabal in #Aleppo #Syria

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 00:57

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

On that note, here's an interview with Weird Twitter YPG dude PissPigGranddad.

https://shadowproof.com/2016/12/06/american-syria-ypg-communal-society-ruins/

Interesting interview.

I checked his twitter, and it looks like civilians are still managing to get away from ISIL:
https://twitter.com/PissPigGranddad/status/803600194801537024

quote:

Husband, wife and flock crossing over from ISIS territory to our lines

They're holding hands.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 03:43

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

New map of Aleppo, with an outline of lost rebel territory:

God, it really puts the losses into perspective; the remaining rebel-held area isn't that much larger than Sheikh Maqsood.

_{The outline of the lost area looks like Johnny Bravo. You now cannot unsee this.}

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Dec 7, 2016

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 22:12

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

I was talking about Kosovo, not the breakup of Yugoslavia.

In actual news, it looks like the SDF's Raqqa offensive is back on, though we've heard that one before so who knows. ISIS is also taking advantage of the recent SAA focus on Aleppo to launch what seems to be a pretty major offensive on Palmyra.

Yep, looks like the SAA's next battle has been decided for them:

https://twitter.com/InsideSourceInt/status/806840730526224384

quote:

#Syria // #Palmyra // ISIS captured the Village of Jazzal located in Western Palmyra.

https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/806842301100199936

quote:

ISIS seizes Jazal Oil Fields 10km northwest of Palmyra. ISIS also seized several checkpoints southwest of Palmyra today. Big development.

And we may have an explanation why ISIL decided to do the attack now:
https://twitter.com/PalmyraPioneer/status/806882790033752064

quote:

According to testimonies from inside #Palmyra city. the #Russia|ns withdrew their troops and their vehicles from the city two days ago
#ISIS

Russia withdrew troops and vehicles (likely to help with Aleppo), and ISIL is taking advantage of the situation. Palmyra's already fallen to ISIL once, so it falling again is not out of the question if something isn't done.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 18:32

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Throatwarbler posted:

So Assad has no problem killing dissenters who aren't jihadists but for some reason releases all kinds of jihadists who are now the core of the rebellion that almost toppled him, created Isis so that he could let Isis seize his oilfields so that he can buy oil from isis, and...

I think people are really taking the whole " our enemies are at the same time terrifying diabolical 4d chessplayers and also hilariously incompetent subhumans" thing a bit too far.

Cirofren posted:

Assad releases jihadists to muddy the waters regarding who the dissidents are increasing his justifications for the terrorisation of his own populace. Large parts of his armed forces defect and the conflict spirals beyond his control. Wanting to keep all Syria, and defeat all his enemies, he focuses first on the forces that don't fit his propaganda and works with ISIS in some areas (in terms of keeping infrastructure running, not militarily) while fighting them on other fronts.

But that's a narrative and it assumes a bit. All we can really do is go off the verifiable and consistently corroborated evidence of specific actions.

Took a bit of hunting, but here you go:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4ody75/new_syrian_army_confirms_they_are_being_bombed_by/
https://twitter.com/south_front_sy/status/743444709369065472

quote:

#Breaking
Regime attacks supported by Russian air support are hitting #FSA area of al-Tanf, #Syria-#Iraq cross border in rif-Damascus

This was the SAA and Russia attacking the NySA rebels; said rebels were fighting ISIL out in the desert, nowhere near regime territory.

"It's Assad or ISIL, and we're gonna loving make sure that's the only choice, no matter how many people we have to kill to make it so!"

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Dec 9, 2016

# ¿ Dec 9, 2016 03:25

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 17:12

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Jippa posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/10/bomb-outside-istanbul-football-stadium-causes-multiple-casualties

The outlawed Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) may be behind the attack that killed 29 people and wounded 166 outside a football stadium in Istanbul, according to Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Numan Kurtulmuş. A car bomb was followed by a suicide bombing less than a minute later.

Close, TAK claimed responsibility:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/807959614511726593?s=09

quote:

Kurdish militant group TAK takes responsibility for Beşiktaş bombing in Istanbul yesterday which left 38 dead mostly police + civilians

But I know Turkey doesn't differentiate between TAK and PKK.

Ikasuhito posted:

IS now claiming to have taken all of Palmyra.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5hpj5b/palmyra_has_fallen_is_officially_stating_the/
Borrowing a quote from reddit, because it's just insult to injury at this point:

ProBot420 posted:

The embarrassing part is that this was literally the same tactic that IS used successfully the previous time. Overrun the countryside rapidly, launch a probing attack on the city, give some ground back, and then storm the entire city and it falls within a few hours. Literally the same strategy. I had a bad hunch that the real battle wasn't the first one in Tadmur, but the second one.

This wasn't even a new tactic or anything, ISIL literally used the exact same loving tactics as the last time they took Palmyra, and it worked again. I still don't get how the SAA and company could sweep across Aleppo so quickly and yet be completely blindsided in Palmyra.

Meanwhile, the SDF is renewing the Raqqa push. They have some help:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a75094b9b0ac42b5879bb510c32d0c3c/us-sending-200-more-troops-syria-battle

quote:

Drawing the U.S. deeper into the Syria conflict, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced Saturday he is sending 200 more troops to accelerate the push on the Islamic State's self-declared capital of Raqqa.

The 200, to include special operations troops, are in addition to 300 already authorized for the effort to recruit, organize, train and advise local Syrian Arab and Kurdish forces to fight IS. Carter said the expanded U.S. involvement was approved by President Barack Obama last week.

On his final tour of the Mideast as Pentagon chief, Carter cast the new troop commitment as evidence that the U.S. backs its anti-IS words with military muscle. He offered an extensive defense of the Obama administration's efforts to defeat the extremists, and he aimed sharp jabs at the region's Arab powers, saying they need to stop complaining of U.S. shortcomings and do more to protect their own neighborhoods.

So that's ~500 total troops/advisers/SOF/etc. Huh, hard numbers are easier to come by that you'd expect.

Continuing on the Raqqa push, I found tweet chain that's a goldmine of good info:
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/807555953491144709

quote:

Syrian Democratic Forces (YPG/J+local Arab tribes+ former FSA groups) launch 2nd stage of #WrathOfEuphrates op to liberate Raqqa from ISIS.
SDF: "During 1st stage, we liberated 700 km2 from ISIS, broke ISIS defense lines N of Raqqa & w/ safe corridors rescued 1000s of civilians"
SDF "With the second stage of the #WrathOfEuphrates operation we will liberate all the villages falling west of Raqqa from ISIS"
SDF "Deir al Zor Military Council, Nakhba Forces, Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa & 500 youth from Raqqa trained by @coalition join us in this operation"
SDF "We are in actively coordinating the operation with the Global @coalition and will coordinate even stronger during 2nd stage of op"
SDF "Liberation of Raqqa city itself falls on the shoulder of its youth who joined us. After that, city will be governed w/ a civil council"
SDF "We call on people around Raqqa to follow our security warnings & act accordingly. We thank the people for cooperation during 1st stage"

I believe there will be a 3rd stage and that one will be for the city itself. 2nd stage is still to secure surrounding & "isolate" Raqqa.
What I also believe, based on no official/inside info that the aim will be to liberate whole area east of Euphrates before moving on city.
2 ISIS lifelines have been resource reach Euphrates and Tigris basins. They nearly lost Tigris in Iraq. Now aim is to kick 'em frm Euphrates
Once done, "effective" Islamic "State" governance will end. Less population under control & main area they have will be Syrian desert.

Oh hey, it's Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa! Looks like that special advisers training got them 500 new trained "youth" fighters. Now who's this "Deir al Zor Military Council"?

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5hljjr/syrian_democratic_forces_we_will_liberate_deir/
Syrian Democratic Forces: We will liberate Deir ez-Zor in the next phase of the Wrath of Euphrates campaign.

YPG-Got-Aleppo posted:

SDF's spokesman says that they received some modern weapons from the International Coalition. Including anti-tank weapons.

He also said that when this phase of the Wrath of Euphrates campaign is finished, the next move will be on Deir ez-Zor city.

About the current phase of the campaign he said: With this phase the liberation of Raqqa City is not our goal. The isolation of Raqqa and further liberation of its countryside is our goal.

Oh I get it, we're fully in the twilight zone: the zone where the SAA lost Palmyra again, and the siege of Deir ez-Zor will end up being relieved by the loving SDF, complete with coalition support in doing so.

Oddness aside, it's a fairly realistic scenario; the SDF just has to push down to As-Suwar, and from there it's a straight shot to Deir Ez-Zor city.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Dec 11, 2016

# ¿ Dec 11, 2016 18:05

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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