CommieGIR posted:

Potential Gangtag by goon Loden Taylor

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 9

There also seems to be more confusion than I would expect to be on what I consider Clancychat. To me, Clancychat is any conversation on military particulars that is removed from the currently observed events by either a significant passage of time, or a lengthy chain of assumptions. What counts as current, significant, or lengthy here I leave to my discretion on an individual basis.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 8

In the light of the recent debacle, I've given some thought to shoring up post quality in this thread. From now on:

• Casual GBS-style (poo poo)posting, however well intended, is explicitly discouraged. Joke posts will also need to meet a higher standard of funny to survive.
  
• Any uses “orc” to describe Russians, other than to express exasperation about Russian war criminals on a specific occasion, are explicitly forbidden. The exception is meant for one-off posts when you have a good reason to say so – use it at your own risk.
  

CommieGIR posted:

Thread moderation update 7

Please avoid sharing videos of POWs, they are not to be made objects of public curiosity. If you wish to share a video of a POW, it must be relevant to an ongoing event in the war in such a manner that it adds unique context to the conversation.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 6

Don’t discuss videos you won’t post, that is neither interesting nor helpful to anyone. Tag appropriately, consider putting the link into code blocks so it doesn’t embed in the mobile app, and get on with it - asking people to look up sensational poo poo on their own with the amount of propaganda going about is bad enough that I’ll genuinely start probating for posts like that going forward.*

*warning doesn’t apply to stuff like “Twitter is full of dead bodies from Bucha, scroll carefully”.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 5

I've caught up with the thread since I went to bed, and I'd like to ask for 2 things:

• Please shut up about a tankies or DSA, unless it's obviously relevant to the thread; that entire conversation was very tedious.
  
• While this is a fast-moving thread with somewhat relaxed moderation, D&D rules still stand, and I'd like to politely remind people to put effort into your posts. If you want to meme, that's okay with me (to an extent), but, please, as we say here, combine "the pleasant" with "the practical", and post something thread relevant along your sometimes dubious one-liners. Find some examples of the posts I'd call out from the last night below.
  

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 4 - TAG THE LINKS YOU SHARE

- visible gore, visible death (any target), likely death (any visible target), clear violence against civilians, cruel treatment of probable POWs

For instance - soldier with a hand blown off, charred corpses, Bayraktar shooting human convoy, that Kharkiv cruise missile hit, MLRS shelling residential buildings, beating up surrendered POWs

- light wounds, clear violence against military, particularly emotional moments, heavy language, massive fires

For instance - soldier with bloodied biceps bandage, entrenched military firefight filmed from a high-rise, that toddler screaming when jet fighter’s rocket blew up near the home, videos with more than just blyat and suka going on, Zhaporizhya cruiser missile hit scene on 95th base where everything was on fire

no tag - everything else (forums rules still apply), including violence against an unclear target, and violence against likely empty target

For instance - all those nighttime explosions, soldiers dumping RPGs around the corner, missile hit on TV tower

If you use a tag, you must explain why you use a tag. content must be spoilered or not embedded (preferably latter), and content with disturbing thumbnails must be spoilered as well.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 3

Boring posting rules, wrt NATO, from now on, also apply to Geneva Convention, and no-fly zones.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update 2

Having also edited like 20 posts to clean up stuff, going forward the OPs may get more than 6 hours for posting that stuff inappropriately.

Also, if you quote incorrectly posted obvious poo poo like a giant rear end rocket hitting the ground floor of an office building, during office hours, while there are cars and poo poo around, I will also probate you for quoting it because I'm not spending another hour editing all the loving posts.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread moderation update

Having caught up earlier in the day with 15 pages of posts made overnight, I must regretfully note that a lot of it was a tedious discussion centred on NATO, c.f. “Being boring” rule of D&D. This is not an individual indictment of any specific poster. Similarly, I don't intend to go back and gas everyone who mentioned NATO between 6am and 11am Latvia time, since we have had many new faces here in the last 24 hours, and their good faith participation in the thread is valuable. Instead, I'd like to give some advice over the types of conversations concerning NATO (in itself or on behalf of the U.S.) that have  already been rehashed multiple times, arguably ad nauseam:

• NATO should have been dissolved when the USSR fell, and its continued existence is an act of Western aggression towards Russia. This includes the discussion on USSR-Russia succession.
  
• NATO is not a defensive alliance. This includes multiple discussions on every armed conflict US has been involved in since 1990.
  
• NATO did promise Russia to not enlarge eastwards. This includes discussion on whether if promise was binding or not, the kind of guarantees it bore, whether if it was ever offered or eventually broken, etcetera.
  
• NATO did mistreat Russia during NATO-Russia accession talks. This includes discussion on whether if Russia as a member was realistic, or whether if NATO was to be restructured, or whether if Russian got baited into shock therapy or otherwise treated as lesser while moving these friendship discussions.
  
• NATO did intentionally expand eastwards, as a long con attack on Russia. This includes both the fact of new members in general, and more granular discussion of each of the enlargement waves.
  
• NATO's 2008 motions towards Ukraine and Georgia were an act of  aggression towards Russia. This includes whether if the 2 countries were interested, or were intentionally played by NATO like chess pieces.
  
• NATO is the organizer of “colour revolutions” in countries neighbouring Russia. This especially includes foreign involvement in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.
  
• NATO improving its working relationship with Ukraine post-2014 is an act of aggression towards Russia. This includes discussions on if Ukraine wants a membership, if it can get a membership due to veto, and if the West is playing it like a chess piece for its own goals.
  

While I wish that people continuing these conversations would do their due diligence to review what has been already said previously, that's unrealistic. Consequently, I'd just like to ask people posting about NATO, which isn't the primary focus of the thread, to ask themselves 2 questions:

• Is it likely that I am bringing a new viewpoint into the discussion, that will be found interesting by the majority of readers?
  
• Have I clearly stated why I'm bringing NATO up, and what are the conclusions or prescriptions that stem out of what I'm saying? This especially applies to “Russian invasion a bad act, but” posts.
  

Conversations about NATO may continue, but for the duration of elevated posting volume, the boring rule will be more likely to be enforced, and by people who have been following EE politics for months, if not years. Posts careless about the 2nd point may simply be treated as threadshitting, to manage moderation workload and thread readability.

Silver2195 posted:

It will end by "Friday," i.e., within 18 months.

Silver2195 posted:

Yes. The war will end (or at least be "re-frozen") before November 10, 2023.

Keisari posted:

It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure.



Ukrainian flag will fly in Melitopol by September 9th 2023, or I will donate 50 euros to a charity or the Ukrainian state.

nurmie posted:

i propose the following conditions for my counter- to HonorableTB:

• six months time span - so, no invasion before the 24th of June, 2022 24th of July, 2022
  
• only official or quasi-official invasion counts - so, Crimea scenario counts as an invasion, supporting DNR/LNR with "advisors" and sending communist internationalists weirdo russian nazis to fight CIA-backed weirdo ukrainian nazis or whatever does NOT count as an invasion
  
• only invasion by Russian forces counts - Poland deciding to grab Lwow for itself or Turkey trying to reistablish itself within the land borders of the Byzantine empire does not count for the purposes of this toxx
  

HonorableTB posted:

I think these are reasonable and accept

Edit: assuming toxxes are still a thing on the forums, I know for a while they weren't allowed but with Jeff owning the site maybe that has changed. Unless a mod says otherwise I will assume the toxx stands in effect

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Twitter accounts for Russo-Ukrainian war. This is just a compilation of accounts I'm aware of, rather than a recommendation to read all of this, or some kind of “allowed sources” list for the thread. My general suggestions are to use common sense:

• Don't doomscroll. Make separate Twitter lists for different topics you care about. In general, I would also suggest siloing OSINT accounts to a separate Twitter list because they're spammy.
  
• If Ukrainians says they blew up Russian Death Star, wait for tangible evidence.
  
• Make sure “multiple sources” are not several people citing the same Twitter account.
  
• If a tweet feels sensational, check their timeline to get a measure of the account.
  
• “Proper” photo/video evidence is well lit shots from multiple people and angles, with publicly explained geolocation.
  
• If you see a loud claim with a photo, consider using reverse image search. For this, Yandex is the best, followed by Bing, and only then followed by Google.
  
• Check even numbers. If they align with whatever Wikipedia says perfectly (20 tanks in a landing ship, 1:3 dead:wounded ration, etcetera), be sceptic. In general, stuff like “100 trucks blown up” in a presser will tend to be rounded up to some “neat” number.
  

General analysis of the war
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar
https://twitter.com/JominiW

Master list on Russian economy
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1506669435612016645

OSINT aggregators
https://twitter.com/RALee85
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp
https://twitter.com/loogunda

Broader OSINT community
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000 (maps)
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop (Russian equipment losses)
https://twitter.com/bellingcat
https://twitter.com/CovertShores (boats)
https://twitter.com/christogrozev
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974 (warfighter of some sort)

Variety commentary
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien
https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux
https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba
https://twitter.com/mhmck
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch (some weird takes)

Commentary accounts with frequent weird takes
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani
https://twitter.com/sumlenny
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko

Ukrainian journalists
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk
https://twitter.com/lapatina_
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko (seems to primarily repost MoD stuff these days)

Foreign reporters in Ukraine
https://twitter.com/andersostlund
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji

Journalists reporting on Ukraine from abroad
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM
https://twitter.com/maxseddon
https://twitter.com/yarotrof
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss

Spammy, sensationalist accounts to be careful with
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR

Ukrainian news
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine

Ukrainian government accounts
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa
https://twitter.com/ukraine
https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre
https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA

Western government accounts
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch (actually just a journalist reporting from Pentagon)
https://twitter.com/armees_gouv
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating (actually just a journalist reporting from Brussels)
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe (another defence briefings journalist)

Truga posted:

so they should have said "you're not getting in" then, and thus avoiding a bunch of suffering for ukrainians because by 2014 clearly russia felt like they can handle propping up an insurgency now

about 80%? russia's at fault here, but this could have been easily avoidable if bush admin didn't say the thing despite knowing full well ukraine is never getting in because not every nato ally wants them in. putin would have zero reason to do anything in ukraine if ukraine wasn't a nato candidate

e:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/23/politics/ukraine-us-second-weapons-shipment/index.html
you mean this?

e2: well gently caress

Cpt_Obvious posted:

The chief Nazis Against Territories for Others (NATO) is at it again:

https://twitter.com/RenieriArts/status/1492249342580830211?t=h8jPu2tPEjBhxxToXyg5Sg&s=19

Truga posted:

western state apparatuses and media are hyping this supposed invasion that's kicking off in 2 weeks, and how we should totally help ukraine (for 8 years straight now i might add), and just generally spreading stupid fear, almost like they're planning some kind of false flag themselves

you can't just decouple these things from the weapon shipments, they're connected. it's absolutely saber rattling. i mean, gently caress, try opening cnn or bbc front page, they're loving insane

i can't really speak for what putin's end goal is here, seeing how i'm not him, but i can say that as an EU citizen, our leaders absolutely are partially responsible for the bullshit going on

Truga posted:

ah yeah, let's do more sanctions, those sure seem to hurt the militaries and oligarchs, not average people

Terminal autist posted:

Hopefully the war is quick and as bloodless as possible. Its increasingly clear the West and NATO only view Ukraine as a pawn in the most cynical chess game around.

Red and Black posted:

Even if Russia were a perfect democracy, it would still oppose NATOs expansion into Ukraine. It would still oppose NATO troops in Ukraine. It would still oppose western missiles in Ukraine. (and it would still be called a dictatorship by the western media) This is a matter of a core security concern and not of the personal ideology of one man, who by the way probably isn't as all powerful as you've convinced yourself he is.

pippy posted:

Oh you're against being invaded? You know who else is against being invaded? Nazis.

I guess if you're against being invaded you're pro-nazi.

Red and Black posted:

The only territory Russia took was Crimea, and that was because the right-wing coup in 2014 raised the real possibility of NATO taking over the naval base at Sevastopol. Also since you're so concerned with self-determination consider that the population of Crimea has wanted to join Russia since at least the 90s and were in favor of the take over. As for the war in the Donbass, that's a matter of home grown separatists who also don't want to be part of Ukraine, and who object to the hyper nationalist government introduced in 2014 and its disregard for their culture and ethnicity. Russia has probably supported them, but at the core it's a problem that Ukraine brought on itself by alienating its own population.

If however you're talking about the much hyped 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine: it's not happening. There will be no invasion. It's a western media fever dream.

Red and Black posted:

The Maidan coup lead to a pro-EU/US government as evidenced by them almost immediately taking on a huge IMF loan with structural adjustments. It really isn't that hard to connect the dots to potential NATO membership and handing over the naval base. This is the calculation Russia made and acted on.

Red and Black posted:

Dunno. Probably not

NATO can change their minds about that too

Red and Black posted:

Sure it is. As evidence by the fact that it happened and that this is the most likely explanation of Russia's reasoning

Red and Black posted:

Yeah, it's so irrational for Russia to be scared of a hostile military alliance which has extended itself all the way to its borders

Red and Black posted:

I never said anything was 'justified', and you're just putting words in my mouth at this point. It's clear we have a difference of opinion on what motivated Russia's annexation of Crimea and you have no more or better evidence for your position than I do. I guess we'll leave it at that.

Red and Black posted:

NATO should stop expanding for one. And enter negotiations with Russia and be sensitive to its legitimate security concern wrt for example NATO troops on its border, missile systems, etc.

BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

The US is sending troops and fighter jets to Poland, and though their present mission has been publicly declared to involve staying put in Poland regardless of future events, it is odd to me that this is seen as peacekeeping while Russian movements within their own borders are provocation. And I do not disagree that Russian movements are provocation. However, if I'm skeptical of US movements as a US citizen, one might think the Russians would be particularly skeptical.

TipTow posted:

That's an interesting question. I was told in the other thread that Poland, the Baltics, et al. were interested in joining NATO due to a history of Russian aggression against them. Totally valid point.

If that logic holds true, then, why wouldn't Russia have viewed the expansion of NATO into those countries in the aughts--well before Georgia, Donbas, or the current crisis, when Russia showed no signs of revanchism--as anything but aggressive, considering their proximity to Russia? Specifically the Baltics. Why do some countries get to react to historical animosity and others don't?

NATO always has been and still is an anti-Russian alliance. If it wasn't, why did those countries join in the aughts? What were they afraid of, Sweden?

TipTow posted:

I agree 100%. But there's a cadre of people that become apoplectic at the insinuation there aren't "good guys" in this crisis.

It's just "bad guys" and victims.

Red and Black posted:

Can someone give me a run down on what evidence there is that Russia even invaded the Donbass?

Gripweed posted:

Basically yeah. The idea that America has to always "do something" in response to bad things or potential bad things in other countries has been one of the most destructive urges in recent history.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Escalation in this context means a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.

NATO will nevertheless happily cheer for Ukraine, sell them weapons, provide token aid, offer juicy defense contracts to rebuild their military after its annihilated, and sound the war drums because they don't give a single poo poo about Ukrainians and are hoping Russia bleeds.

Gripweed posted:

Aren't we sending "lethal aid" to Ukraine?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I think it would be cool if Latvia could allocate 1 trillion USD out of its budget for military expense, which you seem to be asking for, but we may have to fix our roads and start paying teachers and nurses liveable wage before then.

Gripweed posted:

And according to the US government, it didn't work. Russia is going to invade anyway.

Gripweed posted:

That would certainly be better. But it would still be the US escalating a foreign war. I would still be opposed.

I point out the Azov Battalion specifically because it makes my argument stronger when we're talking about literal nazi war criminals. And it weakens the argument that we should be helping Ukraine because Russia is bad morally. But in truth I don't think America should be providing military aid to basically anybody.

Gripweed posted:

Every country that agreed to send assistance is complicit in the atrocity that was the Iraq War, no one gets to act the victim there except Iraq

I don't see what the US could do that doesn't have a good shot at just making the situation worse.

Once again "we gotta do something!" has often led to absolutely horrific outcomes, I do not consider it good reasoning or politics.

Gripweed posted:

Sure. But so what? We've given Ukraine the weapons, but we still say Russia is going to invade. SO great, we dumped a bunch of weapons onto the world and didn't even stop the other bad thing.

Ukraine can only "accept" those arms because America is offering them! Which is not a neutral act!

You say that sending arms to a country asking for them is not wrong. Is that just in this specific case, or do you believe America was not wrong to send weapons when Indonesia asked in the 1960s?

Majorian posted:

I'll take your word for it - I definitely believe that the polling is not clear-cut anywhere in a country as big as Ukraine (although I'll read what you had to say if you'd like to dig it up - I'm always interested in learning something new). But my point is less that polling affects present-day defenses and more that broad popular resistance to being occupied by Russia would probably lead to (well-funded, well-armed) uprisings, necessitating a costly, bloody counterinsurgency campaign by Russia. As the U.S. learned the hard way in Iraq, insurgencies can make rebuilding the economies and infrastructures of recently-conquered regions all the more difficult. My overarching thesis here is that Russia's already going to take a big economic hit if it invades, to the point where it would probably impact how well they can conduct a campaign of conquest and occupation. It's high risk, with no guaranteed reward.

Paladinus posted:

As I predicted, Putin's not signing the LDNR recognition bill. For now anyway.

Saladman posted:

Really? God drat, I thought South Park was a parody of real life, not a documentary comic. (Episode: Turd Burglars.)

Paladinus posted:

BoldFace posted:

Time to put on my tinfoil hat.

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1493688179270070281

Generation Internet posted:

I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country.

https://twitter.com/PhilipObaji/status/1493984585989902342

Regarde Aduck posted:

you'd be surprised what people will put up with when the other side is genocidal far right militias that western press considers 'special forces'

Xarn posted:

Isn't that correct though? "the <adjective> government".


I am gonna be honest, this whole "'the Ukraine' is a dogwhistle, use just 'Ukraine'" is really confusing to me.

Bathtub Cheese posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw

US foreign policy looking very desperate and Newman-like these days as the semi-periphery pushes back against their chronic obsession with neocolonialism and undermining the sovereignty of weaker nations using underhanded forms of political, military and economic duress

Grammarchist posted:

A bizarre number of CHUDS are overtly adopting the narrative that Ukraine was drifting toward the EU and being corrupted or forced to adopt more friendly LGBT attitudes. Ergo, Putin needs to liberate the country to restore Christian rights. It's not particularly new, but it's still weird to see offline.

Bathtub Cheese posted:

Crimea voted for annexation and the US funded and aided the overthrow of Ukraine's democratically elected government in 2014. The US sells lethal aid to a government allied with the home-grown fascist squadristi like Azov battalion who are proud of their heritage as Nazi collaborators. They have also furnished credit to this illegitimate government through international financial institutions. These means both are used to redistribute the wealth of a targeted nation such as Ukraine into American hands.

The US has no legitimate role or interest in the region whatsoever and escalation with Russia is an existential threat to humanity as a whole. Why should anyone take the tendentious framing of the issue from a government employee seriously?

Bathtub Cheese posted:

Crimea voted for annexation and the US funded and aided the overthrow of Ukraine's democratically elected government in 2014. The US sells lethal aid to a government allied with the home-grown fascist squadristi like Azov battalion who are proud of their heritage as Nazi collaborators. They have also furnished credit to this illegitimate government through international financial institutions. These means both are used to redistribute the wealth of a targeted nation such as Ukraine into American hands.

Bathtub Cheese posted:

The US has no legitimate role or interest in the region whatsoever and escalation with Russia is an existential threat to humanity as a whole. Why should anyone take the tendentious framing of the issue from a government employee seriously?

Bathtub Cheese posted:

Why should we care about Putin or Russia if the US has no legitimate role or interest in the region other than Ukraine being a lucrative market for arms sales and international development loans? Do you think US involvement is keeping Russia out? If so, how?

Conspiratiorist posted:

"The US should not get involved" is a valid argument on its own merits and you should address that rather than the argument you imagine to be in the poster's head.

Bathtub Cheese posted:

The US is using this as a geopolitical wedge and escalating the situation past the own stated desires of the Ukrainian government. The US's role is more than germane, they're the prime mover in this dustup in their broken promise to end NATO and color revolutions installing pro-NATO governments all along Russia's border. Why should Russia tolerate US meddling in countries so close by, encircling the country with hostile governments that took power in violent coups funded by the US?

Bathtub Cheese posted:

The US is using this as a geopolitical wedge and escalating the situation past the own stated desires of the Ukrainian government. The US's role is more than germane, they're the prime mover in this dustup in their broken promise to end NATO and color revolutions installing pro-NATO governments all along Russia's border. Why should Russia tolerate US meddling in countries so close by, encircling the country with hostile governments that took power in violent coups funded by the US?

Cpt_Obvious posted:

I think he's referring to the coup in 2014, not the collapse of the USSR.

Conspiratiorist posted:

I'd say promising to help rebuild their economy from the ongoing panic damage + the invasion if it does happen through predatory loaning is indeed neocolonialism.

Conspiratiorist posted:

https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1656580?fbclid=IwAR1iWVW40g9V6z_ynIWRGjhYffpeWRcHYVy0ZwLBOLdVEmmnVfIwE47wWZc

Russian Investigative Committee opening an investigation into the mass graves in Donbas.